With talk about future SEC schedules, future Big Ten Playoff guarantees, and future headaches in the ACC, it might be a little easy to lose sight of the tree at the forefront of the forest.
College football is back.
We have an appetizer of games on Saturday for Week 0. Over the course of the next week, the rest of the FBS will join the fun.
These games will matter. All of them. With the College Football Playoff selection committee promising to pay more attention to how teams go about creating their records rather than the top-down approach it took last season, early-season nonconference clashes between the power conferences are going to carry even more weight, bad losses are going to do more harm, and the September games are going to be just as weighty as the November games.
Remember, last season, South Carolina could reasonably say it was excluded from the CFP because of what happened in a mid-September loss to LSU. If the totality of that game mattered as much as the result of the game on the same day in Pasadena, South Carolina might have been in the field.
This is not commentary on whether the CFP selection committee should care about how a loss occurred just as much as it cares that a win was obtained. But that does appear to be the new reality of college football.
So, from a bettor’s perspective, that should influence how we behave in the futures market.
It’s a robust market, wagering on who will and who won’t make the CFP. And that market will continue long into the season. But “guessing” who will make the field in Week 10 isn’t the same as a preseason prediction.
I’m making 1 CFP prediction this season and I’ll stick to that all year. I’ve looked at several teams this offseason whose Playoff odds bring value, but you won’t find all of those teams below.
Here’s who I think is getting in, regardless of the perceived value attached to them.
12. UNLV Rebels
Boise State lost to Oregon in Eugene last season and it didn’t matter. The Broncos beat UNLV twice to capture a Mountain West title and secure a spot in the 12-team field. Boise State is the only Group of 6 team that is ranked in the preseason AP Poll, and Boise State is the overwhelming favorite to grab the G6’s automatic bid. I think Dan Mullen can pull off a stunner. I don’t think Boise State beats UNLV twice again in 2025.
UNLV is a blank slate, to a certain extent. The roster and the staff completely turned over. But Mullen, who led 5 different 9-win campaigns during his 13 seasons as an SEC head coach, is a safe bet. Mullen has his warts, but one thing he’s outstanding at is maximizing the talent he has available to him. I think UNLV will have more talent than most of the teams it’ll face in the Mountain West, and there’s a strong chance it goes 4-0 in out-of-conference play.
11. Utah Utes
The Utes are coming off their worst season under coach Kyle Whittingham since 2013. Whittingham said goodbye to offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig and Utah split with quarterback Cam Rising, whose injuries in recent seasons derailed what was the Pac-12’s premier club just a few years ago. Utah still has a ton of future NFL talent on and around the line of scrimmage. I love the potential here for an absolutely dynamite run game.
Utah also has one of the best home-field advantages in the Big 12. Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Kansas State all have to play the Utes inside Rice-Eccles Stadium, where the Utes went 32-3 from 2018-23. ASU is 1-4 in its last 5 games in Salt Lake City. Kansas State has to go there in November when it’ll be a hornet’s nest. No one saw SMU or Indiana coming last season. We’ll get a surprise team or 2 in this year’s field as well. I think it’ll be Utah.
10. LSU Tigers
LSU will get in because the CFP committee altered its guidelines. This week, the CFP announced that it would be updating its strength of schedule metric “to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents” and adopting a new “record strength” metric that would assess how a team performed against its schedule relative to what would be expected. The CFP will “(reward) teams (for) defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team.” In 2025, I have LSU losing to Clemson, Ole Miss, and Alabama. Losses to 2 power conference champions and a high-end SEC team won’t cost a 9-win SEC team a spot in the field. Not this season. I’m skeptical of Brian Kelly, but I love Garrett Nussmeier. And the LSU defense could be nasty if everyone stays healthy. This team checks all the boxes.
9. Arizona State Sun Devils
That’s right. I have 2 Big 12 teams in my 12-team field. You will find that I have only 1 ACC team in my field and only 3 Big Ten squads. I’m all in on the Big 12 this upcoming season, and I think the contrast with the ACC is fascinating. The Big 12 doesn’t have a national title contender like what the ACC has in Clemson, but the ACC doesn’t have anywhere near the competitive depth that the Big 12 has. There are legitimately 6 teams who could win the league and it wouldn’t surprise anyone. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks the Big 12 as the third-best conference in the country in 2025, and I think that will show itself on the field this fall.
The defending champs aren’t going to fall off because Cam Skattebo left town. The Sun Devils still have one of the brightest young coaches in the sport. They still have an excellent quarterback. They still have the potential for an explosive offense. I think ASU loses to Utah in Salt Lake City and then avenges that loss in the Big 12 title game. They don’t play Kansas State in the regular season, they’ll have a road SEC win on the résumé, and they earned some respect in the eyes of the committee with last year’s quarterfinal showing against Texas.
8. Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia wins 10 games again in 2025. I do have questions about the Georgia defense, which was surprisingly average last season. When I ran the schedule, I wound up with 2 SEC losses for the Bulldogs, which will keep them out of the SEC Championship Game. But we know that a 10-win SEC team isn’t getting left out of the field.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Head coach Marcus Freeman has a slightly concerning issue where he loses games he absolutely should not lose, but that’s my only real problem with the Fighting Irish. The good news for Notre Dame is that the front half of the schedule is so loaded — 3 ranked teams, 2 SEC games — Freeman could suffer multiple losses and still have a case to make the field. I expect Notre Dame’s offense to be a bit more dynamic. Even with a new defensive coordinator, the Notre Dame defense has the studs to keep on keeping on. This should be Freeman’s best team.
6. Oregon Ducks
Dan Lanning is 35-6 in 3 seasons as the Oregon head coach. Oregon is 19-1 at home under Lanning. This offseason, the Ducks signed the fifth-ranked high school class in the country and the fifth-ranked transfer class. That’s on the heels of a No. 3/No. 2 class in 2024, and a No. 9/No. 9 class in 2023. The high-end potential at receiver has taken a hit in recent weeks, but there isn’t really a hole anywhere on this roster. And Oregon’s floor in the Big Ten is 1 loss. The Ducks could realistically go 11-1. If Dante Moore struggles, maybe we’re talking about a 10-2 team. Look at the schedule. No Ohio State, no Michigan, no Illinois. USC doesn’t scare me. Washington doesn’t scare me. And if Moore is good? The Ducks aren’t going anywhere.
5. Texas Longhorns
I have the Longhorns as the runners-up in the SEC… again. Coach Steve Sarkisian will lead Texas to another 10-win season, but a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game will cost the Longhorns a first-round bye in the Playoff. At the very least, Arch Manning should be good. And Texas has stars at a number of other key positions. I’m curious what the new offensive line looks like, and how Texas will respond if it takes an L in Week 1, but the floor is super high in Austin. There are 7 games on this schedule that are an automatic W if the Longhorns show up to the stadium at gametime.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State has the best players in the country on either side of the football. Ohio State has a former 5-star quarterback who got a redshirt year to learn and see the game. Ohio State has consistently recruited at an elite level, so much so that we shouldn’t fret about how many players got drafted. Coach Ryan Day’s staff might not be as good after he had to replace both coordinators in the offseason. But the only time the Buckeyes have lost more than 1 Big Ten game in the last 14 years was last season, when they lost twice, made the Playoff anyway, and won a national championship. The gap between the top 3 in everyone else in the Big Ten is just too wide to matter, and I don’t believe Day will lose to Michigan again. He’d have to go into WitPro if that happens. I have Ohio State winning the opener against Texas and making it to the Big Ten Championship Game.
3. Clemson Tigers
I understand there might be some gag reflex with Clemson given the way recent years have gone, but this is Dabo Swinney’s best Clemson team since 2019. This is a legitimate national championship contender. Cade Klubnik made major strides last year, has an outstanding group of receivers to throw to, and a potentially elite defense at his back. The Tigers are the class of the ACC, and with no regular-season matchup against Miami on the docket, there just isn’t a landmine on the schedule. Even if they go 1-1 against the SEC, Clemson is a safe bet to make the field. There’s a reason Clemson is the overwhelming favorite to win another ACC crown. The Tigers have claimed 8 of the last 10 conference championships. That league still runs through Memorial Stadium, and I don’t see anyone going there and knocking the Tigers off this season.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
I love the addition of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, having closely studied his partnership with Kalen DeBoer at Washington. So long as Alabama gets cleaner play from the quarterback spot, the Tide have everything they need to contend for a national championship in 2025. They have an elite playmaker at wide receiver, they have one of the best offensive lines in the country, they have one of the best secondaries in the country, and they have breakout stars elsewhere. I think DeBoer is one of the best coaches in football. How quickly we forgot how undeniable that 2023 Washington team was. Few thought Michael Penix Jr. would be the star he became under DeBoer’s tutelage. One thing about Alabama’s coach: He’s going to get the quarterback spot right. Last year was a blip with extenuating circumstances. I have Alabama starting the season 7-0 and dropping only one game in conference play.
1. Penn State Nittany Lions
The least amount of flaws, the least amount of questions, the Nittany Lions have the highest floor of any team in the country. They have a veteran quarterback, they have an elite backfield, they finally have a competent receiver rotation, they have stars on defense, and they have the best coordinator duo in the Big Ten. James Franklin’s reputation is what it is in games Penn State isn’t supposed to win, but there won’t be many of those on the docket in 2025. The nonconference schedule is pillowy soft. The league schedule basically comes down to 2 games. If Penn State goes worse than 11-1, Franklin will be facing a barrage of questions. There are zero excuses for Penn State in 2025, and I think this team will rise to the moment. In the regular season, at least…
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
