Hopefully, equilibrium is setting in. After a downright gnarly start to the season, Best Bets went 3-0 in Week 4 and 4 of my 5 DFS picks hit.
Over the last 2 weeks, player props are hitting at a great rate (7-of-9), so we’ll look to keep it going on that front. But now that we’re 4 games into the season for most of these teams, DFS apps might get a better grasp of who is doing what going forward. Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson might not have many more favorable numbers after rumbling for 566 yards in his last 3 games.
But now that we know more about who these teams are and what they’re doing, I can make some necessary adjustments to the model and hopefully get these game picks trending back in the right direction.
The records through the first 4 weeks.
Here’s what I missed in Week 4:
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava over 0.5 interceptions — MISS
Here’s part of what I wrote to explain the pick:
I think OU head coach Brent Venables will have a couple of counters for Josh Heupel’s offense, and I think OU can challenge Iamaleava with its secondary.
Heading into the game, there was a huge question as to whether Oklahoma would commit bodies to stopping the Tennessee run game or show a bit more respect to the explosive ability of Tennessee’s receiving corps. We saw the Sooners play their safeties in run support and really focus on getting downhill. That left acres of space in behind and Tennessee took advantage when available.
But Tennessee also approached this with a fairly conservative gameplan for Iamaleava. With injuries to Tennessee’s tackles and a great defense on the other side, he was more asked to manage the game.
Oklahoma’s defense played well. Tennessee lulled OU to sleep at times and then hit chunk plays, but the Vols had to work for a living on the ground. Iamaleava finished the day with 194 yards and a score on 13-of-21 passing.
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Heupel protected his quarterback on the road. In retrospect, that’s probably something we all should have seen coming, but that’s what happened.
Tennessee faced 19 third downs in the game, but only 4 of those had a line to gain beyond 8 yards. And Iamaleava only threw passes on 7 of those 19 third downs.
He didn’t force much. And when Oklahoma gave him grass, he took advantage of it. On the 66-yard touchdown to Dont’e Thornton, it was just a 1-on-1 and Iamaleava fired a laser beam over the safety’s head for an easy catch-and-run. We saw a fair amount of snaps where safeties were planting their heels and letting the corners work 1-on-1. Oklahoma didn’t ask Iamaleava to hit touch throws, and Tennessee was probably pretty pleased with that.
“I think I learned that in the NC State game, to not force things,” Iamaleava said after the game. “Just got to play within the offense, just knowing it’s gonna pop soon. A couple drives it did, a couple drives it didn’t, but Coach Heup always just tells us to keep playing.”
With Oklahoma’s offense putting out a stinker, the Vols didn’t have to put the throttle down to beat Oklahoma. Had Heupel wanted to put 40 on the Sooners in Norman, he might have been able to the way the 2 sides approached that matchup.
This was an outstanding defensive performance from Tennessee, holding Oklahoma to a 31% success rate in the game. The Vols had a stuff rate of 40% on Oklahoma run plays, per game on paper, and an 18% havoc rate.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
