Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series previews all 17 ACC teams and offers a game-by-game prediction.
Previously: Boston College
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It was only a couple of weeks. But it felt like an eternity.
Instead of getting caught up in the excitement normally associated with the start of a new season last August, Cal coach Justin Wilcox and his players were distracted by the world as they knew it crumbling around them.
The Pac-12 was imploding. And the Bears were 1 of 4 teams left in limbo after the vultures of the Big Ten and Big 12 got through picking over the remains of the dying conference.
“There was a chance we’d get left behind,” quarterback Fernando Mendoza said. “It was scary.”
As a veteran leader, Mendoza did what he could to ease the fears of his teammates as they faced the prospect of losing their power conference status. The Miami native joked that it would be “cool” for Cal to eventually end up in the ACC.
“It was so off in the distance, everyone was like, ‘no way,’” he recalled. “It’s never going to happen.”
Then it did.
After twice voting down expansion, the ACC changed course on Sept. 1 by approving the addition of Cal, along with West Coast cousin Stanford and SMU, as the league’s newest members.
The Bears were in Dallas on the eve of their season opener at North Texas when the news broke. The announcement was met with a combination of relief and excitement.
“I remember that being a great moment,” Wilcox said.
Now that the newness of the situation has worn off and the absurdity of a Pacific Coast team playing as a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference is about to become a reality, the focus has shifted from where the Bears would be playing to how they’re going to play.
Cal will have adjustments to make as it prepares for the challenge of joining a new conference.
The competition will be unfamiliar. Travel will increase, putting more of a premium on time management and conditioning.
But the Bears are coming into the ACC with some momentum after winning their final 3 games as members of the Pac-12 to earn bowl eligibility.
They return one of the nation’s best returning rushers in Jaydn Ott and several key elements, including 2nd-team All-Pac-12 safety Craig Woodson and sacks leader David Reese, from a defense that tied for the FBS with 28 takeaways last season.
“The excitement level is a 10 out of 10,” Wilcox said. “The guys on our team love playing football. We want to play our best football. We’re honored to be playing in the ACC. A lot has changed in college football and it’s going to keep changing. We have this opportunity and we want to make the most of it.”
Transfer tracker
Wilcox was among the ACC’s most aggressive coaches in his use of the portal. His 23 free-agent additions trail only Louisville’s 32. They are divided almost evenly, with 12 newcomers on offense and 10 on defense, with 1 on special teams.
Among the haul are 2 veteran quarterbacks to push Mendoza for the starting job – Chandler Rogers from North Texas and Ohio’s CJ Harris, MVP of the 2022 Arizona Bowl who missed all but 2 games last season because of a medical issue. Whoever wins the starting job will have a wide array of receivers to target thanks to a transfer haul that includes Tobias Merriweather from Notre Dame, Kyion Grayes from Ohio State and Jonathan Brady from New Mexico State.
The Bears’ defense has been bolstered by a number of high-profile arrivals, including cornerback Jasiah Wagoner from Oklahoma, safety Ryan Yaites from LSU, edge rusher Serigne Tounkara from Missouri and defensive lineman TJ Bollers from Wisconsin.
Hello, my name is Jaydn Ott
Unless you live in California or are such a college football junkie that you regularly stayed up past midnight to watch “Pac-12 After Dark” games, you’ve probably never heard of Jaydn Ott. Now that the junior running back will be playing his games in the ACC’s broadcast windows, it shouldn’t take long for him to introduce himself to those in the Eastern Time Zone.
“One of the great things about joining the ACC is that we’re going to span multiple time zones,” Wilcox said. “Now people all across the country will get to see what a phenomenal football player (Ott) is. The same goes for the rest of our team.”
Watching this game in person, Jaydn Ott single handedly kept Cal in it. He's a willing between the tackles runner who has good lateral burst and improved vision. He's an underrated #devy asset. #DevyDigest #GoBears pic.twitter.com/w92RTBEiqR
— Andy (@Andy_Pham1) June 9, 2024
Ott enters the ACC as one of the most electric and underrated players in the country. At any position. He led the now defunct Pac-12 in rushing last year at 108.5 yards per game and comes into 2024 ranked No. 4 among returning running backs by Pro Football Focus.
He’s more than just a combination of power and speed at 6-foot, 200 pounds. He’s the motor that drives the Bears. He rushed for 150 yards or more in 4 of his team’s 6 wins last season and ran a kickoff back 100 yards for a touchdown to spark a season-defining victory against UCLA.
While those around the ACC still have a lot to learn about Ott, the Cal star is also still in the process of learning about his team’s new conference.
“All I know is Stanford, FSU because my cousin is there and SMU because it came with us. And Clemson. That’s it,” he said. “The familiarity with the teams isn’t there as much as you would have on the West Coast.”
Cardinal knowledge
Jack Plummer quarterbacked Louisville to last year’s ACC Championship Game in his only season with the Cardinals. This year, he could potentially have a hand in helping Cal to a successful debut in the conference.
That’s saying something, considering he’s out of college eligibility.
Plummer played at Cal before transferring to Louisville. While he was there, he served as a mentor to current Bears’ starter Mendoza. In an effort to help his former backup prepare for the transition to the ACC, Plummer provided Mendoza with a scouting report on what to expect.
“He gave me a lot of positive feedback about the ACC and how it’s different from the Pac-12,” Mendoza said. “One thing he said is that the lines are bigger and more physical. And that a lot of the teams, like NC State, are more aggressive on defense with a ton of pressure.”
Plummer also told him that while the top teams in the Pac-12, particularly Washington and Oregon, might be better than the ACC’s best, the middle and bottom of Cal’s new conference is significantly better. And deeper.
“He gave me the example of Louisville, which beat Notre Dame to go 6-0, then the next week they turned around and lost to Pitt, which wasn’t having a great season,” Mendoza said. “It shows you that in the ACC they’re all tough teams. It’s a more well-rounded conference.”
Despite a perception that there’s a difference in the way the game is played from one coast to the other, Wilcox isn’t planning to make any major changes to his team’s offensive or defensive schemes.
“Football is football throughout the country,” he said. “Even within conferences there are different styles of play. What I do know is that there are a lot of really good players and coaches (in the ACC) and we’re looking forward to competing against them.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. UC Davis (W)
Wilcox and his staff will have a chance to look at a lot of players in a game situation against a traditional opening week cupcake.
Week 2: at Auburn (L)
Playing the Tigers at Jordan-Hare isn’t a small step up in competition. It’s a giant leap. It’s also the 1st of Cal’s 3 trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season.
Week 3: vs. San Diego State (W)
This could have been a conference game had the ACC not come to Cal’s rescue.
Week 4: at Florida State (L)
Welcome to the ACC, Bears.
Week 5: Open
Week 6: vs. Miami (W)
The disadvantage of travel goes both ways. And the Hurricanes are just the kind of team that will let it get the best of them.
Week 7: at Pitt (L)
Another East Coast road trip, another loss.
Week 8: vs. NC State (L)
The Wolfpack have always had an aggressive defense. Now Dave Doeren’s team has added some potent offensive weapons to go along with it.
Week 9: vs. Oregon State (W)
No mercy for a former Pac-12 rival who got dealt a losing hand in the conference realignment sweepstakes.
Week 10: Open
Week 11: at Wake Forest (L)
Starting to detect a pattern here?
Week 12: vs. Syracuse (W)
A game that could go a long way toward determining the postseason fates of both teams. Advantage, geography.
Week 13: vs. Stanford (W)
The first ACC edition of The Big Game doesn’t promise to be much of a game at all.
Week 14: at SMU (L)
The Mustangs might not be championship material like they were in the American Athletic Conference last year. But they’re still the best of the ACC’s 3 newcomers.
2024 projection: 6-6 (3-5 ACC)
#GoBears
Cal made positive strides last season by winning its final 3 games to earn bowl eligibility for the 1st time since the COVID pandemic. But despite an upgrade in talent thanks to the transfer portal, Wilcox and his staff still have plenty of hurdles to clear in order to make an immediate slash in the ACC.
The biggest issue is a defense that yielded an average of 32.7 points and 416 yards per game a year ago. There are also questions at quarterback, where Wilcox’s confidence in incumbent starter Mendoza is so shaky that he brought in 2 other veterans to compete for the job.
Then there’s the issue of travel.
According to calculations by Doug Samuels of Football Scoop, the Bears will fly 20,720 miles during the upcoming season, crossing 25 time zones criss-crossing back and forth across the country. That’s nearly enough to make a trip around the circumference of the Earth. The total would increase by another 4,000 miles if they make it to the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte in December.
If that happens, it would send shockwaves through the conference more powerful than those produced by the Hayward Fault that runs directly beneath Cal’s Memorial Stadium.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
