The 2026 college football season is almost here.
It’s a great time to break down the college football futures market in search of value. Specifically, I’ll be locking in predictions for each of the Power 4 conferences in this story.
Conference championship bets
We’ll be accounting for projected team quality as well as strength of schedule in these predictions. Let’s break things down:
SEC: Georgia
This is a chalky pick, but I think we’re actually getting a better price here than we should because of how much the market likes Texas. I understand the love for the Longhorns — I’m pretty bullish on Arch Manning, especially with a loaded running back and wide receiver room around him. But I’m much less convinced by the plan on defense, which will be led by Will Muschamp. This will be Muschamp’s first full-time DC role since 2015.
Georgia, meanwhile, just keeps winning under Kirby Smart. No one wins in the SEC like UGA. The Bulldogs have lost 3 conference games in the past 5 seasons. Combined. They’ve lost 10 conference games in the last 9 years, never more than 2 in a single campaign. In a year where SEC teams will be playing 9 conference games for the first time, Georgia seems — by far — to be the best-equipped to handle that change.
Georgia also returns its starting quarterback, a veteran offensive line and an absurd amount of defensive talent. Georgia is 5th nationally in defensive returning production, per ESPN. As for the schedule, it’s not exactly daunting by SEC standards besides road trips to Tuscaloosa and Oxford. Oklahoma figures to be UGA’s third-toughest SEC opponent, but the Sooners will be heading to Athens for that game. Even if Georgia drops 2 of those games, it could still make the SEC title game with a 7-2 record — though I think 8-1 is certainly on the table.
Pick: Georgia to win the SEC (27% chance on Kalshi)
Big Ten: Oregon
The Big Ten has 3 clear contenders at the top of the board: Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. Of that group, I like Oregon the most — especially when factoring in its price at 27% on Kalshi. The Ducks have arguably the nation’s top defensive line, an elite returning quarterback in Dante Moore and blue-chip talent all over the field. They also have an excellent coach in Dan Lanning who is 17-1 in Big Ten play since the Ducks moved conferences.
There is a downside worth noting — Oregon lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs this cycle. The offensive side of the ball is the one to watch with Drew Mehringer being promoted to a primary play-caller role after serving as co-offensive coordinator and tight ends coach under Will Stein for the past few years.
But I think Oregon has enough talent and a favorable enough schedule to wash out any continuity concerns. The Ducks play at Ohio State on Nov. 7, but they avoid Indiana. Michigan and Washington both travel to Eugene. USC and Illinois are the only other road games of note. Compare that to Ohio State’s regular season schedule which includes Iowa, Indiana, Oregon, USC, Nebraska and Michigan plus a road game against Texas in Week 2.
I think Oregon and Ohio State are pretty similar from a talent standpoint, but I far prefer Oregon’s path to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Pick: Oregon to win the Big Ten (27% on Kalshi)
RELATED: Curious about where Kalshi is legal? SDS has a full breakdown on that topic to help you get started with one of the best prediction markets available before football season.
ACC: SMU
I went with mostly chalk in the SEC and Big Ten, but I think we could see an upset in the ACC. Everyone loves Miami, and for good reason after its dominant CFP run last year, but the Hurricanes are still capable of some missteps. Should Miami run the table in conference play? Probably, yeah. But I haven’t forgotten this program’s ability to underwhelm when you least expect it. Since 2022, Miami has 6 outright losses as a 7+ point favorite — including defeats to SMU and Louisville just last season.
As for the Mustangs, they’ve been shockingly dominant since moving up to the P4 level ahead of the 2024 season. They nearly won the ACC in their debut season in the league and then went 6-2 in league play last year. SMU returns quarterback Kevin Jennings and is top 25 overall in returning production for 2026, per ESPN.
Schedule-wise, SMU’s toughest ACC game might be in Week 3 against Louisville on the road. The Mustangs dodge Miami and Clemson plus will get dark horses like Cal and Virginia at home. There’s a wide open path for SMU to make the ACC title game, where I’d surely expect it to have more than the 11% championship equity it currently owns on Kalshi.
Pick: SMU to win the ACC (11% on Kalshi)
Big 12: Texas Tech to NOT win
Texas Tech’s payroll has been well-documented, as has its quarterback woes with Brendan Sorsby ultimately parting ways with the program this offseason. The rest of Tech’s roster may be loaded, but there should be significant concern at the quarterback position. Will Hammond is set to start this fall, but he’s missed virtually the entire offseason as he recovers from an ACL tear he sustained in 2025. Tech’s third-stringer is Kirk Francis, who began his college career as a walk-on at Tulsa and mostly served as a reserve over a 3-year stint with the Golden Hurricane. Francis averaged just over 6 yards per attempt and has 18 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions across 400+ pass attempts.
Elsewhere on Tech’s roster, the Red Raiders will be counting on transfer portal production all over the field. They had 4 defensive players selected in the top 70 of the 2026 NFL Draft and 9 players were selected overall. That’s an immense amount of talent for a program like Texas Tech to replace in a single offseason.
Despite those red flags, Tech remains a heavy favorite to win the Big 12. The Red Raiders are priced at 50% to do so on Kalshi. I think that price significantly underestimates what the likes of BYU, Kansas State, Utah and Houston are capable of. I’m comfortable fading the Red Raiders at that price.
Pick: Texas Tech to NOT win the Big 12 (51% on Kalshi)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
