Danny Kanell explains why Florida State might struggle to clear its win total
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Danny Kanell, usually one of Florida State’s staunchest advocates, is approaching the 2025 season with a fair bit of restraint.
On the Cover 3 Podcast this week, Kanell and his cohosts analyzed win totals for every ACC team in 2025. The show used the 7.5-win number posted at FanDuel for Florida State and CBS Sports’ Bud Elliott was the only Cover 3 regular to take the over.
Kanell threw out an alt win total as a potential play for confident Florida State backers, but he thinks the most likely outcome this season is a 7-5 record.
“I think Florida State is one of the hardest teams to handicap in the entire country,” Kanell said. “I think if you go over, you have to have a faith more than evidence, you have to have a belief that they’re going to take that big step forward. I would love to buy into it, but unfortunately, I’m going to say 7-5 is probably where they end up.
“I hate to say it, but I feel like that’s the spot to be in. They of course have the 4 games where they’re going to be underdogs against (Alabama), Miami, Clemson, and Florida.”
The Seminoles host Alabama to begin the season. They have November road games against Clemson (Nov. 8) and Florida (Nov. 29). Kanell also pointed to a potential trap spot the week prior to an Oct. 4 meeting with Miami.
“You cannot give them wins with confidence anymore after what you saw last year,” he said. “The Virginia game right before Miami kind of makes me nervous. It shouldn’t, but it does. … At NC State is not a guarantee. … I’d love to be wrong. I’d love to say they’re a surprise team.”
Even at 7-5, though, Florida State would be showing improvement upon last year’s group. After winning the ACC in spectacular fashion in 2023, the Noles crashed and burned in 2024, losing 3 straight out of the gates and producing the first 10-loss season since 1974.
Mike Norvell overhauled everything this offseason in an attempt to quickly rebound. But Florida State will have to pull a massive upset to open the year on the front foot. An early line from FanDuel favors the visiting Crimson Tide by 13.5 points.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
