Twelve teams entered the College Football Playoff. Four teams are left standing.
Let’s take a look at some DFS angles to attack from the semifinal round.
CFP Semifinals DFS predictions
Below are 4 DFS picks for the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff — 2 from each game — that can be found across some of the best apps for daily fantasy sports on the market. New users can hit the banner below each player pick and our SDS sign-up bonus will be applied to your account.
Miami RB Mark Fletcher higher than 79.5 rushing yards vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss ranks 130th out of 136 FBS teams, per Game on Paper. When Miami’s Mark Fletcher Jr. has gotten at least 11 carries in a game this season, he has averaged 97.8 yards per game. He has cleared 79.5 rushing yards in 7 of the 9 games he has carried the ball a minimum of 11 times. He has 36 carries through 2 Playoff games for Miami thus far, and figures to factor heavily into the game plan. Don’t overthink this one.
Via Chalkboard
Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy longest run higher than 19.5 yards vs. Miami
Kewan Lacy isn’t worried about his next stop. He has already confirmed he is coming back to Ole Miss next season. That suggests a steely-eyed focus on the task at hand.
Miami ranks 77th in EPA per rush allowed this season, per Game on Paper. Not horrible, but if you’re looking for flaws in an otherwise formidable defense, you take what you can get. The Hurricanes will give up explosives. Louisville’s Isaac Brown broke a 28-yarder to punctuate a 113-yard rushing day when the Cardinals upset the ‘Canes. Two different Syracuse backs had 20-yard runs. Two different Virginia Tech players hit 30-yard runs.
Lacy has been a workhorse for Ole Miss. He has 6 games this season with at least 100 rushing yards, and he has 8 games with at least 20 carries. Only Mizzou standout Ahmad Hardy has more 20-yard runs among SEC players than Lacy, who enters the semis with 13 such carries.
And he has a 30-yard gain in 4 of his last 5 games. He had one in 4 straight before Georgia held him in check (somewhat). Big players have to make big plays in big games. Ole Miss needs Lacy, and he should have plenty of opportunities.
Via Dabble
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza longest completion lower than 44.5 yards vs. Oregon
I’m not quite sure why this number is set as high as it is. I’d even play it down to 34.5 yards. Mendoza’s longest completion in the first meeting with Oregon went for 29 yards. Because Indiana won the game and Oregon quarterback Dante Moore had a poor showing, Mendoza’s performance in the first meeting gets overshadowed a bit. He wasn’t great.
The Heisman Trophy winner completed 20 of his 31 passes for 215 yards and a touchdown with 1 interception. The turnover came early in the fourth quarter, and it was returned by Oregon for a defensive score that tied the game. Indiana’s offense (4.8 yards per play) didn’t light up Oregon’s defense that day; the Ducks just couldn’t keep Indiana’s defensive front at bay and eventually, the dam broke.
If Oregon’s offense is, in any way, better during the rematch, Indiana will be hard-pressed to get 13 possessions again. Oregon’s defensive effort against Texas Tech was a near masterpiece. The Ducks limited the chunk gains and that short-circuited an offense that was heavily reliant on them.
Indiana doesn’t need explosives to move the football, and it might still find success against the Ducks. But that success will be more methodical in nature. Oregon has only given up 7 pass plays all season that went for more than 40 yards. Mendoza has only thrown 11 passes that gained more than 40 yards, and only 14% of his pass attempts this year travel more than 19 yards downfield. Oregon is an excellent tackling team with playmakers in the secondary.
I don’t envision a ton of monster gains being had through the air.
Via Underdog
Oregon QB Dante Moore higher than 216.5 passing yards vs. Indiana
It’s really hard to beat a team twice. And it might be harder for Indiana to replicate what it did to Oregon’s Dante Moore in the first meeting, when it sacked him 6 times, picked off 2 of his passes, and forced a fumble.
Indiana dominated the line of scrimmage against the Ducks. That might happen again, to be fair. But what got less attention was just how much IU’s defensive coverages challenged Moore. The Indiana game was his worst of the season by Total QBR (35.1) and by PFF grade (47.8). He averaged 5.5 yards per pass attempt and was under his season average when it came to average target depth.
Moore wasn’t good under pressure, and he was pressured a lot, but he also brought a ton of that on himself. His average time to throw of 2.85 seconds was the second-highest of any game this season. He has been under 2.5 in 6 of his last 7 games. Against Indiana, Moore didn’t know what he was looking at.
That’s where the rematch element should help Oregon the most. The Ducks know, of course, they can’t get their tails whipped at the point of attack. But Moore and offensive coordinator Will Stein should have a better plan for what IU is doing in the backend, having already seen it. Part of IU’s defensive success this season has been its ability to confuse opponents after the ball is snapped. What changes now that Oregon has a slightly clearer picture of what to expect?
Oregon might not be able to give Moore all day to sit in the pocket, but Oregon has receivers — healthy now — that are better than most, and it has tight ends that are better than most. Quicker decision-making and a better plan of attack could certainly pave the way for a decent day, which is all this number forecasts. Moore has cleared 216.5 passing yards in 5 straight games.
Via Underdog
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
