All eyes will be on the SEC in Week 5.
A ranked Notre Dame team visits Arkansas. A top-15 matchup awaits in the Magnolia Bowl. Tennessee goes on the road to face a 4-0 Mississippi State squad. Auburn faces Texas A&M in College Station. And then we have the big one — Georgia-Alabama in primetime on ABC.
With so many massive contests across the conference, the DFS market is booming.
Here’s what to target.
Week 5 DFS predictions
Below are 3 DFS picks from the Week 5 college football slate that can all be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code SDS that will help you earn $50 in bonus credits when you enter your first $5 contest!
Arkansas QB Taylen Green higher than 18.5 completions vs. Notre Dame
With capable quarterbacks on both sides of the football and both of these teams struggling (to varying degrees) to defend the pass this season, I’m expecting a higher-possession game in this one. While Green can really stress a defense with his legs, Notre Dame’s secondary has been susceptible to big plays through the air all year and I think Arkansas can take advantage of that. Green had 24 completions in the opener and then 22 completions against Ole Miss. He has topped 30 pass attempts in 3 of his 4 games, with the only sub-30-pass game being the blowout of Arkansas State. Coming off a 2-pick outing in which Green completed 53% of his passes, a bounce-back outing is certainly possible in this spot.
Notre Dame ranks 130th in EPA per dropback faced. The Irish are in the seventh percentile nationally in passing success rate allowed and have produced virtually no havoc all season. Explosives are available through the air; Purdue’s Ryan Browne had 6 explosive pass plays last week and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed produced 8 the week prior. Arkansas offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino should have a plan in place that showcases Green’s arm.
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss lower than 318.5 passing + rushing yards vs. LSU
The former D2 star has been remarkable in his first 2 starts for the Rebels. Trinidad Chambliss stepped in for Austin Simmons in the Arkansas game, threw for 353 yards, and ran for 62 yards in a 6-point Ole Miss win. In the rout of Tulane last week, Chambliss threw for 307 and ran for 112.
According to Game on Paper, Tulane ranks 70th in schedule-adjusted EPA per play faced. Arkansas ranks 83rd. LSU ranks eighth. Chambliss has confidence, sure, and he’ll have a home crowd behind him, but he has yet to see a defense like LSU’s.
The Tigers have recorded 7 sacks in their last 2 games and have multiple in every outing so far this season. They’ve been pretty solid against running quarterbacks, giving up a couple of explosive runs but otherwise containing passers around the pocket. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik had 8 carries for 1 yards in the opener. Louisiana Tech’s 2 quarterbacks combined for 29 yards on 11 carries. Florida’s DJ Lagway had a 10-yard run but finished with 19 total rushing yards on 9 carries.
LSU might finally be able to run the ball and open things up on offense, which might limit the opportunities for Chambliss and the Rebels. After consecutive weeks of getting whatever he wanted, I think Chambliss is going to have to beat the Tigers with his arm to win the game. And LSU hasn’t given up 300 passing yards in a regular-season game since last season’s opener against USC.
Texas A&M WR Mario Craver higher than 72.5 receiving yards
The Mississippi State transfer currently leads all FBS players in receiving yards per game. Mario Craver, a sophomore for the white-hot Aggies, has 443 receiving yards and 4 scores on just 20 receptions through his first 3 games for Texas A&M. He caught 8 balls for 122 yards in the opener, then made 5 catches for 114 yards against Utah State. In the Sept. 13 win over Notre Dame, Craver carved up the Irish secondary to the tune of 207 yards on 7 receptions. Craver’s 22.2 yards-per-catch average this season is the third-best among FBS receivers with at least 20 targets.
Two things scare me about Auburn in this matchup. The first is that focus in coverage and in the open field has been an issue all season. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer threw for 271 yards and completed 67% of his throws despite breaking a bone in his throwing hand in the first quarter. Oklahoma had 8 explosive pass plays against the Tigers. PFF grades Auburn as the 16th-worst coverage defense in the country. Auburn also has the 80th-ranked tackle grade from PFF. Second concern: Auburn still seems to be very caught up with what happened a week ago in the Oklahoma game. If there is any loafing on Saturday, any “woe is me” attitude on defense, Craver is the perfect player to exploit it. His 9 receptions of 20 yards or more lead the FBS.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
