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SEC Football

ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of every game on Texas’ 2026 schedule

Parker Gillam

By Parker Gillam

Published:


The pressure is on Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns entering the 2026 season, as they have been transparent in their recent investments and belief that this should be a championship-winning season.

With household names starting within nearly every position group, Texas boasts the talent and experience necessary to survive the gauntlet that is the SEC schedule.

ESPN’s Football Power Index updated its projections for each team’s season recently, and the metric system thinks highly of Sarkisian’s Longhorns despite that difficult slate.

It gives them a greater than 50% chance to win each game and an implied regular season win total of 9.76 overall.

  • Sept 5: Texas State Bobcats | 98.4% chance to win
  • Sept 12: Ohio State Buckeyes | 53.7% chance to win
  • Sept 19: UTSA Roadrunners | 98.6% chance to win
  • Sept 26: Tennessee Volunteers | 75.5% chance to win
  • Oct 10: Oklahoma Sooners | 75.6% chance to win
  • Oct 17: Florida Gators | 87.8% chance to win
  • Oct 24: Ole Miss Rebels | 83.8% chance to win
  • Oct 31: Mississippi State Bulldogs | 95.8% chance to win
  • Nov 7: Missouri Tigers | 81.9% chance to win
  • Nov 14: LSU Tigers | 64.0% chance to win
  • Nov 21: Arkansas Razorbacks | 95.5% chance to win
  • Nov 27: Texas A&M Aggies | 65.1% chance to win

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Of course, being favored in every game by no means implies that Texas will finish undefeated.

But still, even a 10-2 finish against this slate of contests should ensure a place in the College Football Playoff for the Longhorns.

Prediction Markets
College Football SEC Championship Winner (2026)
Learn more about Prediction Markets
Kalshi
Georgia
27%
Texas
24%
Alabama
10%
LSU
10%
Texas A&M
10%
Oklahoma
8%
Ole Miss
6%
Tennessee
4%

Parker Gillam

Parker is currently the sports editor for Gulf Coast Media in Foley, Alabama. He's a graduate from Mizzou who has experience covering the Tiger football and basketball beats for SB Nation, and he's worked for a variety of sports news outlets in the past.

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