ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of Mississippi State-South Carolina showdown in Columbia
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ESPN’s FPI believes that South Carolina will be the SEC upstart that’s going to leave the field, its home field, with a perfect 3-0 record and a 1-0 mark in the SEC.
The 2-0 Gamecocks will, of course, have to win Saturday’s showdown against Mississippi State on the field, but the ESPN FPI is giving the hosts a 64.5% chance to fend off the 2-0 Bulldogs in a battle of teams whose good starts has created optimism for the 2026 season.
It’ll be a battle of dynamic quarterbacks in Columbia when Mississippi State’s Kamario Baylor squares off with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers. Both signal-callers have gotten off to great starts, which has corresponded to their teams each winning their first 2 games of the season. Taylor has thrown for 581 yards with 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and he’s run for 145 yards and another touchdown.
Taylor’s QBR is a cool 88.6, but he’ll have his work cut out for him on Saturday in trying to outduel counterpart Sellers, who’s only thrown for 366 yards in the Gamecocks’ first 2 games, but who has also only thrown 1 interception against 3 touchdowns. Sellers has also shown that familiar ability with his legs, rushing for 120 yards on just 9 carries with 1 TD.
It’ll be the SEC opener for both teams, so not only can 1 of these dark horse teams from the SEC emerge with a 3-0 overall record, 1 can also celebrate being 1-0 in the SEC when the dust settles early Saturday night at Williams-Brice Stadium. The showdown of interesting SEC teams looking to become relevant in 2026 will kick off at 4:15 p.m. ET, with SEC Network showing the game and perhaps showing SEC fans a couple teams that could crash the party of usual conference contenders.
ESPN’s FPI believes the home team has the edge, and South Carolina is also a 4-point favorite right now. But it’ll be a show within the show, with Taylor and Sellers locking horns in what is sure to be an entertaining early season SEC tug-of-war.
South Carolina and Mississippi State are trying to come out of nowhere and contend for an SEC title in 2026. Here is what the Kalshi market is currently saying about the top teams’ odds to be the last SEC program standing when the conference championship is decided:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
