ESPN’s FPI updates projections for all of Tennessee’s remaining games in 2025
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ESPN’s FPI crunched the numbers again after No. 24 Tennessee handled Syracuse, 45-26, in Saturday afternoon’s season opener in Atlanta.
The Volunteers were mighty impressive in the neutral-site victory and so was new starting quarterback Joey Aguilar, who replaced the departed Nico Iamaleava. Aguilar tossed 3 touchdown passes and threw for 247 yards, showing the quarterback spot might just be in good hands (or better hands) than it was in 2024 with Iamaleava.
Perhaps for that reason or a few others in Tennessee’s strong performance, the FPI now has a different take on 2 of the Volunteers’ biggest games of 2025. Previously, Tennessee was an underdog in its Nov. 22 clash at Florida, being given just a 48.5% chance to prevail in Gainesville. Now, after Saturday’s grand performance, the Volunteers are getting a 51.3% chance to win on the road at The Swamp, so their showing against Syracuse tilted things in their favor in the November matchup, according to the FPI.
The other game where Tennessee’s FPI rating was significantly affected was against Alabama on Oct. 18. Before the opener, the Vols were given just a 31.6% chance to win in Tuscaloosa. But now? The odds have changed, perhaps with the Vols’ performance on Saturday but also with Alabama losing at Florida State. Tennessee is getting a 52.7% chance to win at Alabama, a drastic upgrade from the FPI.
Here are the rest of Tennessee’s games for 2025 following the opening win, with its FPI percentages:
- Sept. 6: vs. East Tennessee State — 99%
- Sept. 13: vs. Georgia — 40%
- Sept. 20: vs. UAB — 98.3%
- Sept. 27: at Mississippi State — 79.8%
- Oct. 11: vs. Arkansas — 79.7%
- Oct. 18: at Alabama — 52.7%
- Oct. 25: at Kentucky — 78.7%
- Nov. 1: vs. Oklahoma — 77.2%
- Nov. 15: vs. New Mexico State — 99%
- Nov. 22: at Florida — 51.3%
- Nov. 29: vs. Vanderbilt — 86.3%
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
