Could UF’s scheduling and down division hurt its playoff case?

Florida is currently ranked No. 8 in the College Football Playoff committee’s poll. The talk around Gainesville is that if the Gators win, they’re in – meaning a ranking of No. 4 or better should be guaranteed if UF finishes 12-1 by defeating Florida Atlantic, No. 14 Florida State and the SEC West champion, probably No. 2 Alabama.

It might not be that simple for Florida. The timing of scheduling a cupcake opponent (2-8 FAU) in Week 12 while other top-10 teams face off isn’t going to help the Gators make their case this week. A formula-based model like the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) would allow for less influence due to sequence of a team’s schedule, but the human element of the playoff committee cannot be ignored.

The SEC East’s down season, in which Missouri (5-5), Kentucky (4-6), Vanderbilt (4-6) and South Carolina (3-7) could all miss out on bowl games, may also hurt the Gators in a debate for the last spot in the final four.

While the conference might not be at its strongest this season, it still seems blasphemous to snub an SEC champion from the final four, but let’s play devil’s advocate and look at a few potential issues and scenarios that could be troublesome for No. 8 Florida’s playoff chances:

No. 15 LSU could be on the verge of collapse and make UF’s Week 7 loss look worse

A “quality loss” doesn’t seem like a credible metric, but this is the College Football Playoff committee we’re talking about, and it will come up with any random reason to justify its rankings. If LSU, which has dropped its last two contests, loses one or both of its next two games against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, suddenly Florida’s 35-28 loss in Baton Rouge doesn’t hold up very well to No. 4 Notre Dame’s 24-22 loss at No. 1 Clemson.

No. 9 Michigan State (9-1) could beat No. 3 Ohio State (10-0), and No. 4 Notre Dame directly benefits

Forget the grudge against Urban Meyer, Gators fans, a one-loss team beating an undefeated team is bad news for Florida right now. Big Ten cannibalism could allow No. 4 Notre Dame to climb higher and gain a stronger foothold in the final four. If MSU upsets Ohio State, the Irish could slide up to No. 3, while one-loss OSU falls to No. 8. If Florida gets bumped down to No. 9, it makes the jump to No. 4 in the final weeks that much more difficult.

The Big 12 has No. 6, No. 7, No. 10 and No. 18 duking it out in Weeks 12 and 13

• No. 6 Oklahoma State has already defeated then-No. 8 TCU, and could still beat No. 10 Baylor and current No. 7 Oklahoma in the next two weeks. After the committee snubbed two one-loss Big 12 teams last year, would it do the same to an undefeated Big 12 champion?
• Oklahoma sits directly in front of Florida. The Sooners are climbing the polls, having just knocked off previously undefeated Baylor. OU takes on a one-loss TCU in Week 12 before finishing its regular season with currently undefeated No. 6 Oklahoma State. If Oklahoma emerges from the Baylor-TCU-Oklahoma State gauntlet 3-0, the playoff committee might consider that more impressive than UF taking care of FAU, FSU and Alabama.
• Baylor is currently two spots behind the Gators, but can easily move up. Baylor’s Week 12 opponent is No. 6 Oklahoma State. If the Bears beat No. 6 OSU, expect them to get closer to No. 4 than UF after a win over 2-8 FAU. Baylor’s Week 13 opponent is No. 18 TCU. The Horned Frogs have only one loss, and could jump two-loss FSU (No. 14), Florida’s final regular-season opponent, after Saturday. If Baylor leapfrogs Florida after this Saturday and plays a higher-ranked opponent the following week, it could keep Florida from moving up at all before the SEC Championship Game.

If Bob Stoops has a week for politicking, the SEC will be his target and he’ll have plenty of talking points

Of all the above scenarios, 11-1 Oklahoma could be the most worrisome for Florida, especially with OU’s win over an SEC team (Tennessee). If this plays out, the Sooners would be finished on Nov. 28 after defeating Oklahoma State, potentially the Cowboys’ first loss of the season. While Florida and Alabama are preparing for the SEC Championship Game, it would give OU coach Bob Stoops a week to spend pleading his team’s case on ESPN. His target, without a doubt, would be the SEC.

It doesn’t take long to guess his talking points:

• Oklahoma went to Neyland Stadium in Week 2 and beat Tennessee 31-24.
• The Big 12 plays nine conference games, while the SEC plays eight. On the Saturday that Oklahoma played 9-1 TCU, Florida took on 2-8 FAU and Alabama hosted FCS team Charleston Southern.
• Texas Tech went on the road and beat Arkansas 35-24.
• TCU embarrassed Ole Miss 42-3 in the last Peach Bowl.
• To further weaken the SEC’s post-2012 reputation, Stoops would probably reference FSU’s BCS win over Auburn and Ohio State’s upset of Alabama.

In the BCS era, we’d be able to predict where a 12-1 Florida might finish. With the playoff committee, the Gators can only concentrate on their three remaining opponents and hope the committee members are impressed by what they see.

Andrew Olson

Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaign of Fred Taylor.