We have our first batch of rankings for the College Football Playoff, and that means chaos is about to take over the sport. In Week 11, we have 6 different top-10 teams going on the road. Will any of them lose?
The Saturday Down South staff returns to give their ATS picks for the top Week 11 college football games.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 11 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 11. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
Tulane at Memphis
Spenser Davis: Tulane got smoked last week against UTSA in a total no-show performance. With that being said, I think this is too many points. The Green Wave have risen to the occasion in big games this season and I think they’ll do so again on Friday night in a game that has College Football Playoff implications. PICK: Tulane +4
Andy Olson: It’s hard to get a feel for this Tulane team. I’m also curious how all the Jon Sumrall chatter might affect the team. PICK: Memphis -3.5
Derek Peterson: Tulane has had trouble containing explosive plays, and Memphis has made a habit of biting off chunks at a time. I like the matchup here for the Tigers at home. PICK: Memphis -6
Adam Spencer: Could this battle between Jon Sumrall and Ryan Silverfield take place in an SEC matchup next year? It’s possible! For now, I’ll give Silverfield the edge since Memphis is the home team. PICK: Memphis -3.5
Ethan Stone: …… PICK: Memphis -3.5
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State
SD: From a fundamentals standpoint, the only sensible pick here is Penn State and the points. But Curt Cignetti’s Indiana team doesn’t act like most 2-touchdown favorites. The Hoosiers like to run up the score and they revel in squashing the joy out of everyone they play for a full 60 minutes. That’s hard to capture in a point spread — or in any other quantitative way. But we see it week after week. IU has played 2 competitive games this season and yet it ranks fourth nationally with a plus-57 point differential in the fourth quarter. PICK: Indiana -14.5
AO: I’ve learned my lesson about doubting the Hoosiers as favorites in Big Ten games. PICK: Indiana -14.5
DP: Penn State is bad and has no real reason to try anymore. Indiana is awesome and has had no real issue going on the road. Give me the Hoosiers, who have separated themselves atop the sport alongside the other 2 unbeaten teams. PICK: Indiana -14.5
AS: I picked Illinois to cover against Indiana. I won’t be making that same mistake here. Can the Hoosiers win by 50 again? That’s the only question this weekend. PICK: Indiana -14.5
ES: My gut told me to pick Penn State to cover the spread here. But that would mean going against this Indiana offense and picking a team that has lost 5 straight. No thanks, Nittany Lions. PICK: Indiana -14.5
No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State
SD: If this was the Georgia of old, the Bulldogs would have no problem covering a spread like this. But I don’t think this defense is anything more than average in the SEC because they don’t pressure the quarterback. Mississippi State has been very competitive all season and I think we’ll see another close game in Starkville this weekend. PICK: Mississippi State +10.5
AO: This is a sneaky spot for Georgia. UGA regularly gives a great effort in the Cocktail Party. Kirby Smart and Co. now have to go to Starkville with a big game against Texas up ahead next week. MSU has put in some impressive upset bids at home this year, coming up just short of a couple big wins. I’ll take a cowbell cover. PICK: Mississippi State +10
DP: Georgia will get some phantom call to rescue it in the fourth quarter, but Mississippi State is a real team that should get taken seriously. The Bulldogs had been close to a breakthrough and finally got it against Arkansas. I think that momentum carries into this week. PICK: Mississippi State +8.5
AS: Fine, I’ll switch things up a bit and go against consensus here. Georgia hasn’t played its best game of the year yet. These Bulldogs haven’t been so dominant that they can afford to look past a tough Mississippi State team with Texas on deck next weekend. Kirby Smart’s bunch plays a strong wire-to-wire game and wins by double digits. PICK: Georgia -9
ES: I think this one is going to be close to this line, and Georgia really has played nothing but close games this season. Same for Mississippi State. Feels like I have to go with the Bulldogs +9 here. PICK: Mississippi State +9
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech
SD: I’m going to lay the points with Texas Tech and I expect a rocking-chair victory. The energy in Lubbock when Texas Tech is the center of the college football world is unparalleled. That’s the case this weekend as College GameDay gets to campus for the first time since the Michael Crabtree game in 2008 — one of the best regular-season games the sport has seen this century. I think BYU is vastly overrated with its No. 8 ranking and won’t be able to keep up with the Red Raiders. PICK: Texas Tech -10
AO: I expect Texas Tech to win, but I just can’t lay 10.5 to a top-10 opponent. I’m curious to see how the Cougars respond to being such a big road dog. PICK: BYU +10.5
DP: I’m a BYU doubter, but its voodoo magic is hard to deny. As a double-digit dog, I’ll roll the dice. PICK: BYU +10.5
AS: Texas Tech has Behren Morton healthy (ish) for this game. The Red Raiders are a different team with him at quarterback. College GameDay will be in town. Patrick Mahomes will be in town. Lubbock will be amped up. Big win for Texas Tech. PICK: Texas Tech -10
ES: This feels like the perfect time for BYU to lay an egg. Texas Tech dominated a similarly strong Utes rushing offense a few weeks ago, and the vibes in Lubbock are at a major high. Plus, this one kicks off at 11 am local time, which is just an early matchup for the Cougars on the road. A lot to like about the Red Raiders here. PICK: Texas Tech -10
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri
SD: I didn’t hate what I saw from Matt Zollers in his cameo a couple of weeks ago. I also think the Mizzou defense could give Texas A&M some trouble, as could its rushing attack led by Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts. PICK: Mizzou +7
AO: Texas A&M has been the real deal this year. The Aggies are a complete team and have shown they can win on the road. Obviously, Mizzou’s upset hopes took a huge hit with the Beau Pribula injury. I’d be surprised if the Tigers keep this within the spread. PICK: Texas A&M -6.5
DP: I’m on the Aggies in several spots this week, which probably means bad things are coming for Mike Elko’s squad. But I have a hard time picturing Matt Zollers’s first career start going well against this defensive front. PICK: Texas A&M -7
AS: Texas A&M is a tough assignment for Matt Zollers in his first career start. It won’t be a total embarrassment like last year’s debacle in College Station was, but the Tigers will lose this one. The Aggies stay unbeaten in comfortable fashion on Saturday afternoon. PICK: Texas A&M -6.5
ES: Texas A&M is a machine right now, and I found the Aggies -6.5. Get ready to learn Cashius Howell, Matt Zollers. PICK: Texas A&M -6.5
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa
SD: “What if Oregon is mediocre?” is a question I’ve thought about quite a bit since Penn State’s loss to UCLA. I do have some serious concerns about the Ducks. But the reality is, Iowa has one of the worst passing offenses in the country again this season. The Hawkeyes’ rushing defense is pretty bad down-to-down (110th in rushing success rate), and Oregon’s rushing attack is borderline-elite. I like the Ducks as long as it’s under a touchdown. PICK: Oregon -6
AO: Defense travels. It feels like Iowa is a bit of a trendy upset pick right now, but I think Oregon covers. PICK: Oregon -6.5
DP: Iowa has hosted 9 AP Top 15 teams at Kinnick since the start of the 2015 season. The Hawkeyes have 4 outright wins. The other 5 were decided by an average of 6.6 points. I have some concerns with Oregon. I’m backing the home side. PICK: Iowa +6.5
AS: It feels like everyone is down on Oregon. On the flip side, I’m just that impressed by Indiana. I think the Ducks win. It won’t be easy, but a 10-point victory is certainly possible, even at Kinnick. PICK: Oregon -6
ES: Iowa holding Fernando Mendoza and that monster of an Indiana offense to just 20 points is even more impressive with time. The Hawkeyes have played well at Kinnick Stadium this season, and Oregon has really yet to play a defense this good. On the road. 3,000 miles away from Eugene. PICK: Iowa +6.5
Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt
SD: Emotional loss for Vandy last week. Auburn could look a lot different on offense with a new coach running the show this week. I also think Auburn’s defense is excellent and could give Vanderbilt some real issues this week. PICK: Auburn +6.5
AO: I’m going to ride the interim coach wave that addition by subtraction helps the Auburn offense play better Saturday. Even a slight improvement on that side of the ball should keep this close. PICK: Auburn +6.5
DP: This will more than likely be a lower-scoring game. I like the Auburn defense to keep the Tigers within striking distance. PICK: Auburn +6.5
AS: Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled against elite defenses. Auburn’s offense has struggled against everyone. It might help that the Tigers now probably don’t have 34 different offensive play callers under this interim staff, but Vandy should still win comfortably. PICK: Vanderbilt -6
ES: Auburn just scored 3 points at home against Kentucky. Hugh Freeze is absolutely to blame for a decent amount of that, but the Tigers’ offensive line isn’t just magically fixing itself overnight. Can the Tigers get to 10 points? PICK: Vanderbilt -6.5
Wake Forest at No. 14 Virginia
SD: Virginia probably isn’t a top-40 team, let alone a top-15 team. Wake Forest is coming off of a terrible loss to Florida State last weekend. I think we’ll see a better effort from the Demon Deacons on Saturday in what will be an opportunity to earn a ranked road win. PICK: Wake Forest +7
AO: I tend to trust Virginia at home after Wake Forest turned in an embarrassing performance against Florida State. Hoos to cover a 7-point win feels about right here. PICK: Virginia -6.5
DP: Virginia has been flirting with danger recently. I’m out. PICK: Wake Forest +7
AS: Reading Spenser’s columns every week has me all aboard the Wake Forest hype train. He’s picked the Demon Deacons to pull off upsets almost every week, and almost every week (outside of a beatdown at Florida State), he’s been right. I’ll take Wake in this spot. PICK: Wake Forest +7
ES: I feel like this line is giving a little too much credit to Wake Forest, which completely fell on its face against the best defense it played all year last week. Virginia will be the second-best defense the Demon Deacons have faced all year, and they’ll have to face them in Charlottesville. I could see Virginia tripping before the finish line, but I don’t think it’ll be here. PICK: Virginia -6.5
Florida State at Clemson
SD: Imagine if you had told ACC commissioner Jim Phillips at the beginning of the season that Clemson would be hosting Florida State in a primetime matchup and the point spread would be a virtual pick ‘em. He probably would have been thrilled. PICK: Clemson +0.5
AO: It’s hard to know what to expect from Clemson right now. Are the Tigers going to fight to make a bowl game, or have they given up on the season altogether? I’m not sure FSU can be trusted on the road, so I’ll go with a slim Clemson home cover and hope for the best. PICK: Clemson -1.5
DP: I have no clue which of these teams are still motivated to play out their respective seasons. I have no clue which coach still has the ear of his locker room. I’ll take the team coming off the better result. PICK: Florida State +1.5
AS: Does the loser of this game fire its coach? Which dumpster fire will out-dumpster fire the other dumpster fire? I think Florida State at least covers this 2-point spread. PICK: Florida State +2
ES: Florida State has been so bad on the road this season, but Clemson is a shell of itself right now. And Florida State’s defense is the best unit on the field. In a tossup, I’ll take the Seminoles… but I don’t feel great about it. PICK: Florida State +1.5
LSU at No. 4 Alabama
SD: It’s just too many points. Alabama’s offense looked rough in its most recent game against South Carolina. LSU should be fired up to play for an interim head coach with Brian Kelly out the door. I think LSU beats the number and I wouldn’t be shocked if the outcome was still in doubt after 3 quarters. PICK: LSU +10.5
AO: I’ll ride the interim coach wave again, though I was a bit more hesitant here. We’ve known all year that LSU isn’t lacking talent. I have no doubt Frank Wilson will have the Tigers ready for a big rivalry game. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being close like 2021 after Ed Orgeron’s firing. PICK: LSU +10.5
DP: I got LSU earlier in the week and I’ll stick with that pick for this. It’s possible the dismissal of LSU’s offensive coordinator has a larger impact on the Tigers’ fortunes than the firing of Brian Kelly. I don’t think the Tigers are actually going to win this game, but there’s too much talent on the offensive side of the ball for it to be as backed up as it has been this season. I’m anxious to see if LSU has more conviction in the run game. PICK: LSU +10.5
AS: I think the interim coach bump will be a thing in the first half. But in the second half, Alabama will come to life and put the Tigers away. Ty Simpson has a Heisman Trophy moment and the Crimson Tide win by double digits. PICK: Alabama -9.5
ES: Alabama has played 4 games at home this season and none have really been close. Even against Vanderbilt, the Tide controlled the game the entire way. If you’re going to come into Byrant-Denny and buck that trend, you’re going to have to put up points. LSU currently ranks 95th in the country in total offense, so I’ll roll with the Tide. PICK: Alabama -10
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
