The Saturday Down South staff returns for another week to give their ATS picks for some of the top college football games.
Action gets rolling Friday night with a pair of games featuring ranked teams. On Saturday, we have 3 matchups between ranked teams in just the SEC. We’ll also see the Holy War and another iteration of the USC-Notre Dame rivalry.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 8 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 8. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
Louisville at No. 2 Miami
Spenser Davis: Miami is certainly capable of covering this number, but it’s usually a good idea to fade the Canes when they’re big favorites at home against ACC competition. Don’t mistake this number for thinking Louisville is bad, either. The Cardinals are going to come ready to play. PICK: Louisville +13.5
Andy Olson: Miami has a strong case for top team in the nation right now, but the Hurricanes are also due for one of their annual ACC stinkers. I don’t think UM loses at home, but I could see the Cards keeping this around 10 points. PICK: Louisville +13.5
Derek Peterson: Going against Andy has been foolish this season, but I guess that’s how we’re starting this week. I’ve downgraded Louisville a bit since the start of the season and Miami is the best line-of-scrimmage team in the country. I think the Hurricanes are going to win comfortably. PICK: Miami -13.5
Adam Spencer: Maybe, just maybe, if this was a 14.5-point line, I’d pause. But I’m getting the Hurricanes, who are likely going to cruise into the College Football Playoff, at 13.5 points at home against a team that struggled against Pitt and lost to Virginia? Sign me up for the Hurricanes all day. PICK: Miami -13.5
Ethan Stone: I went back and forth on this one, so I’m going to take the Cardinals to cover. Jeff Brohm vs. Top 5 teams is very real, and Miami just about gave up in the 4th quarter against Florida State. I wonder if this one will catch Miami by surprise a bit? PICK: Louisville +13.5
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt
SD: It brings me no joy to fade Vanderbilt in this spot, but that’s what I’m going to do. I think Vandy’s secondary is pretty weak, so this might be a get-right game for Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU offense. The Tigers’ defense will need to play a great game against Diego Pavia and Co., but I think the Tigers are capable of winning outright so I’ll take the points here. PICK: LSU +2.5
AO: The LSU offense has yet to perform as expected, but I still can’t bring myself to turn down the more talented team with points. I don’t think either team wins in a blowout, as it looks to be a close, low-scoring contest that could go either way. PICK: LSU +2.5
DP: LSU might be more talented, but Vanderbilt is significantly more trustworthy at this point. PICK: Vanderbilt -2.5
AS: I don’t know what to make of this game (which is pretty clear based on my abysmal picks record this year). But LSU has generally been on the winning side of these close games. If I would’ve had to predict what this line would be after last Saturday, I’d have made LSU a 2.5-point favorite. So I’ll take the Tigers as the underdogs in this spot. PICK: LSU +2.5
ES: Diego Pavia and the Commodores can score 3 or more touchdowns in the same game. I don’t believe the Tigers’ offense can, considering they’ve done it once all year (against Southeastern Louisiana). PICK: Vanderbilt -2.5
Washington at Michigan
SD: What if Michigan is bad? Put another way: What evidence do we have that Michigan is good? That performance against USC this past weekend would have me very worried as a Wolverines fan. I like how Washington matches up with Michigan in this game and I think the Huskies are a threat to win outright. PICK: Washington +6.5
AO: I’ve been a fan of my fellow Florida alum Jedd Fisch for a minute. (Hey Jedd, do you miss Gainesville by any chance?) While Fisch is a great offensive mind, I’m on the Huskies this week for their defense. If UW can keep Michigan from running wild, this one should be close. PICK: Washington +6.5
DP: Michigan went out to the West Coast last season, lost a game, then came back to the Midwest and got belted by Illinois. The same is possible here. Last week’s performance against USC created some questions about the Wolverines’ run defense, and UW is well-equipped to press those same concerns this week. PICK: Washington +5.5
AS: Even being an “SEC homer,” I can acknowledge that Washington should be in the AP top 25 this week. When your 1 loss is to Ohio State, you’re basically undefeated in my book. Meanwhile, I was less than impressed with Michigan’s defense last week against USC. I think Washington can comfortably cover this number, if not win outright. PICK: Washington +6.5
ES: Yeah, Michigan is on my naughty list after that mess against USC last week. The Wolverines are all over the place, whereas Washington has been consistently good offensively when not playing the best defense in the country. I’ll take the points here. PICK: Washington +6
No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia
SD: Are we sure Ole Miss is good? After last week’s showing against Washington State, I’m definitely not. Close wins over Arkansas and Kentucky are aging poorly, too. I’m far from Georgia’s biggest fan this year but I think there’s some sneaky blowout potential with this game if the Bulldogs can get a timely turnover or two. PICK: Georgia –7.5
AO: Ole Miss has a passing attack that is capable of giving Georgia fits, and the Bulldogs just lost a starting member of the secondary indefinitely due to injury. Obviously, Sanford Stadium will be the most hostile environment Trindiad Chambliss has experienced, but I think he’s mature enough to handle the noise. PICK: Ole Miss +7.5
DP: Spenser’s point about the Rebels’ performances against poor teams is a fair one. But Ole Miss always does this, doesn’t it? The Rebels don’t really care about nonconference games and play to the level of competition more often than not. They beat one of the worst OU teams of my lifetime by just 12 points last year before putting 63 on Arkansas in Fayetteville and beating Georgia. I have a counter. Are we sure Georgia is good? The Dawgs don’t pressure opposing quarterbacks and don’t seem to turn up until the second half. Spotting this Ole Miss team, which has a much-improved ground game, a double-digit lead early would be pretty damaging. And I can totally see that happening. PICK: Ole Miss +7.5
AS: I’m fairly confident Ole Miss can cover this game. I like the number I’m getting at +7.5 (on Wednesday night as I’m making this pick). My guess is that dips to +6.5 later in the week, and I wouldn’t like it as much then. Both of these teams have their issues, even if they’re both likely to make the College Football Playoff. I’ll say this comes down to a late field goal either way. PICK: Ole Miss +7.5
ES: This is an unbelievable spread for an Ole Miss team that appears better than they were when they beat Georgia by 18 last season. I understand it’s a whole new year, but I was thinking this line would be hovering around 2.5 or so. Georgia’s other games against teams on Ole Miss’s level were both within 3 points. There’s no universe I don’t take the Rebels to cover here. PICK: Ole Miss +7.5
SMU at Clemson
SD: There’s some speculation over Cade Klubnik’s health, which has caused some wild shifts in this betting line this week. SMU was as high as +10 earlier in the week, but the markets have moved all the way down to SMU +5.5 as of late Thursday night. Luckily, I got in before the line moved, but I would still take the Mustangs at +5.5 with the idea that Klubnik will miss the game. He hasn’t been great this season, but I would guess he’s worth even more than 4 points on the betting line relative to his backup, Christopher Vizzina. PICK: SMU +10
AO: Since I waited, I have to settle for just 5.5 points with SMU. With the Cade Klubnik uncertainty, SMU with points feels like the way to go right now. PICK: SMU +5.5
DP: Even if Klubnik plays, I’m not ready to forgive Clemson because it beat arguably 2 of the 3 worst teams at the power conference level. Neither Boston College nor North Carolina has a pulse. SMU stuffs opposing offenses at the line of scrimmage. If Clemson, which hasn’t shown an ability to run the ball this year, is on its backup quarterback, why should I have any faith in this offense to move the football? PICK: SMU
AS: Honestly, I’m kind of just picking this because I want to see what Dabo Swinney says if he loses another home game. Clemson hasn’t been good this year. SMU has been… fine. Even if the Mustangs don’t win outright, covering the 9.5 points seems very doable to me. PICK: SMU +9.5
ES: This line fell in a big way this week. North Carolina and Boston College are both train wrecks, but Clemson’s response since losing 3 of their first 4 on the season makes me believe they can win this one by a touchdown at home. PICK: Clemson -5.5
No. 4 Texas A&M at Arkansas
SD: I was on Arkansas to cover last week against the Vols and it got over the line with a couple of fourth-quarter touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Hogs, I think Texas A&M is a lot better than Tennessee is. The Aggies will also be dealing with a lot fewer surprises with Arkansas’s new staff. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
AO: This is the kind of spot I’d normally like to take the points with a home underdog in a rivalry game, but I can’t talk myself into Arkansas keeping this close enough. Texas A&M will miss Le’Veon Moss, but the Aggies still have a very capable offense and they’ve shown they know how to win on the road. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
DP: I’d hoped to get this under a touchdown but I don’t think that’s happening. With a trip to Baton Rouge looming, this would be a classic trip-up game for A&M teams of the past. I think this group, under Mike Elko, is different. The Aggie defense has figured things out in league play, and I think that group is the difference-maker here. Arkansas is too volatile and too prone to mistakes to think it can match up well against a defense that is in the 99th percentile nationally for havoc rate and in the 98th percentile for average third-down distance. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
AS: I don’t know how I feel about these rivalry games that are normally (at least in recent history) played at a neutral site being played on campus. On the one hand, I get it – more home games are good. On the other hand, Georgia-Florida belongs in Jacksonville. Texas A&M-Arkansas belongs in Dallas. While we’re at it, the Egg Bowl belongs on Thanksgiving night, not Black Friday. Where was I? Oh yeah, I’m taking the Aggies to win and cover. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
ES: That Arkansas defense is an abomination. The Razorbacks offense can’t hold on to the football. That should pretty much cover it. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
Penn State at Iowa
SD: The ‘interim coach bump’ principle has served me well this season. For that reason alone, I’ll take the Nittany Lions. PICK: Penn State +3.5
AO: I’d entertain the coaching change giving Penn State some juice if the Nittany Lions still had Drew Allar. Playing Iowa at Kinnick Stadium without QB1 feels like a rough day ahead for interim coach Terry Smith. PICK: Iowa -2.5
DP: I’m tempted to back the Nittany Lions because of the interim coach bump Spenser mentioned. Two things are preventing me from getting there. The first: this game is in Iowa City. I think that matters. The second: what exactly does the “talent” on Penn State’s roster have to play for? All the dudes who came back did so to chase a national title. After the loss to UCLA, that went out the window and we saw what they looked like against Northwestern. Not only is the Playoff unattainable now, but those guys don’t have their coach or their starting quarterback. I think this is going downhill fast. PICK: Iowa -3
AS: I will be fading the Nittany Lions until further notice. I understand that there’s a thing called the “new coach bump,” but I think that mostly applies to bad teams that fire their coaches. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that it doesn’t include the preseason No. 2 team that had national title aspirations. Iowa is at home and I think the Nittany Lions are in danger of quitting on this season. PICK: Iowa –2.5
ES: No Drew Allar and a fall from grace so spectacular they’ll write a 30 for 30 about it one day? Not to mention, Iowa just beat Wisconsin 37-0 on the road – which means their momentum is heading in the opposite direction. It takes a lot for me to bet on Iowa football. PICK: Iowa -3
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
SD: I think Alabama is the best team in the SEC by a lot. I also recognize that Alabama’s offense got knocked around pretty good by Mizzou and only averaged a little over 4 yards per play despite the win. Ryan Williams might not be 100% yet and there’s still some uncertainty with Jam Miller. This is Alabama’s fourth consecutive ranked opponent. I think the Vols keep it close. PICK: Tennessee +8.5
AO: Alabama has been a different team since that Week 1 fluke against Florida State. Back at home after a tough road game, I expect Ty Simpson & Co. to air it out against that Tennessee secondary. PICK: Alabama -8
DP: Joey Aguilar has answered the questions I had about him coming into the season. A bad game here won’t change that. Unfortunately for Rocky Top, I think the deck is a little stacked against him. I have no confidence that Tennessee’s defense can slow Alabama’s offense. And if Alabama stretches out a lead at home, a turnover or two from Aguilar wouldn’t surprise me. Alabama, to me, is peaking and looking like the team I thought it could be when I picked it as my national title contender in the preseason. PICK: Alabama -7.5
AS: My concern here is the Tennessee defense. Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson are both ruled out for this game. Ty Simpson is a Heisman contender. Germie Bernard is a legit WR1. Ryan Williams can’t be kept without a catch for a second-straight week, can he? Even if Jam Miller isn’t cleared to play after suffering a scary concussion against Mizzou last week, the Tide should score plenty of points. I like the over on this game, but when all is said and done, I also like the Tide to win by 9+ points. PICK: Alabama -8
ES: Tennessee’s offense is too good for me to believe Alabama wins this by 2 possessions. The Vols’ defense is incredibly unusual; they aren’t good, but they create so much chaos, whether it be turnovers or sacks or tackles for loss. They create a lot of big plays, which could turn the tide in a game like this – especially considering Alabama has struggled to protect Simpson at times. PICK: Tennessee +8.5
No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame
SD: USC has really not travelled well under Lincoln Riley. The Trojans are 5-12 against the spread in road games under Riley. USC is also dealing with some pretty significant injury concerns on both sides of the ball. I was wildly impressed with what USC did to Michigan last weekend, but I think Notre Dame beats the number here. PICK: Notre Dame -8.5
AO: My initial impression is that’s too many points to lay with Notre Dame. The Irish have been great, and Chris Ash’s defense has even improved. Still, I think USC can keep this within single digits with the way the offense has been playing. PICK: USC +9.5
DP: I expect this game to be a shootout between a pair of elite quarterbacks, so I’m taking the points here. I’m a little hesitant to buy into the defensive improvement we’ve seen from Notre Dame in recent weeks just because of the competition. Jayden Maiava will be the best QB the Irish see all year. PICK: USC +9.5
AS: USC is legit. I know my Oklahoma guys in this picks column will have trouble saying anything overly nice about Lincoln Riley, but he has a really good team this year. To beat Michigan with a bunch of backups playing on offense around QB Jayden Maiava is no easy task, and the Trojans just did that. I’m not saying they’ll win in South Bend, but they can keep it within 2 scores. PICK: USC +10
ES: I like this USC team. I really don’t like them on the road. USC +10 is going to be a popular pick here, but I still believe in Notre Dame at the end of the day. PICK: Notre Dame -9.5
No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU
SD: I like BYU to win this game outright. The Cougars have an excellent rushing offense and just put up 258 yards on the ground last week in a road win at Arizona. Utah, meanwhile, isn’t great against the run. BYU is at home, too. I love BYU here. PICK: BYU +3.5
AO: Utah and BYU might not be college football’s best rivalry, but the Holy War is undoubtedly the best rivalry name in the sport. Looking at the stats and metrics, this one feels pretty evenly matched. I’ll take the home dog with points. PICK: BYU +3.5
DP: BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier was awesome to start the season but some mistakes have cropped up over the last 2 weeks. He threw a pick against West Virginia — his first of the season — and then tossed 2 last week in the double-OT win over Arizona. Utah’s defense rates similarly to Arizona’s, and the Utes’ offense can sit on the ball and really take the air out of the game. I’ll sit on the island here and back the Utes, who have won 4 of the last 5 in Provo. PICK Utah -3.5
AS: I know BYU plays a lot of close games, but the Cougars win a lot of close games, too. Utah is a really good team and could very well win this game. But can the Utes win the Holy War by more than a field goal? That’s where I have my concerns. Bear Bachmeier and company keep it within 3 points. PICK: BYU +3.5
ES: You’d think these teams are both 2-4 the way this one is being covered, which is a damn shame. If you’ve watched this BYU team this year, you’d know they just find a way to win football games – and they’re not even the favorite. I love BYU here. PICK: BYU +3.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
