Friday Forecast: SDS staff picks against the spread for Week 1

The Saturday Down South staff is once again giving their picks for some of the top college football games each week. During the regular season, we’ll be picking against the spread in 10 of the biggest FBS matchups.

It’s a loaded Week 1 slate, so let’s just dive in.

(Editor’s note: All odds are via BetMGM. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)

Week 1 college football picks

Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 1. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.

2025 season records:

• Spenser Davis: 4-1 
• Andy Olson: 2-3 
• Derek Peterson: 2-3 
• Ethan Stone: 2-3
• Adam Spencer: 1-4

Nebraska (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati (Kansas City, Missouri) 

Spenser Davis: I’ll always take the opportunity to fade Scott Satterfield. Between his stops at Louisville and Cincinnati, Satterfield is 13-18 against the spread as an underdog of a touchdown or less. I think we see a better version of Dylan Raiola this year, too. It’s odd that this game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, but it should still be a solidly pro-Nebraska crowd. PICK: Nebraska 

Andy Olson: I’m going vibes here. I like what I heard from Matt Rhule and his team during the offseason. And I feel like Dylan Raiola is maybe a little underhyped nationally. I’ll take the Huskers to cover. PICK: Nebraska 

Derek Peterson: Another offseason, another love fest for the “might be back” Cornhuskers. I saw some College Football Playoff buzz for Nebraska. I saw some preseason top 25 love for Nebraska. I see nothing but Nebraska picks here. And, as the resident Husker on this staff, someone who has lived through the incessant torment of the post-Frank Solich era, I know it’s the hope that kills you. I’m picking Cincinnati because this seems like another classic face-planting spot for Nebraska. If Matt Rhule has finally rid the program of its demons, I’ll gladly take the L. PICK: Cincinnati 

Adam Spencer: This seems like a reasonable line for a neutral-site game at Arrowhead Stadium. I’ll take Patrick Mahomes Jr. (Dylan Raiola) to put up some big numbers in the Chiefs QB’s home stadium. The Huskers win by 10. PICK: Nebraska 

Ethan Stone: Year 3 Matt Rhule, baby. Truth be told, I have no clue what the Cornhuskers will look like this year, but I have more confidence that they’ll be strong compared to Cincinnati. I think Nebraska can take this one by more than a touchdown. PICK: Nebraska 

Auburn (-2.5) at Baylor 

SD: I’m conflicted in this game because Auburn severely under-performed its expected wins last season, which could point to a positive regression in 2025. But the Tigers have had a bizarre offseason and they’re facing a Baylor team that has a potentially-elite quarterback in Sawyer Robertson on the road. We saw Jackson Arnold have pretty frequent meltdowns last season and I’m afraid another one is coming on Friday night. PICK: Baylor 

AO: We all know that the pressure is on Hugh Freeze entering 2025. The Auburn roster is strong, and a lot of people are expecting the Tigers to turn some heads this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if AU gets the win to start 1-0, but I’ll take the home underdog to cover what could be a very close game. PICK: Baylor 

DP: Here’s the line I wrote in my preview of this game on Tuesday: “I’m backing Baylor as a home dog against this Auburn team every single day of the week.” I am all the way out on Freeze’s Tigers. PICK: Baylor

AS: I have no idea how to pick this game. Auburn has the better top-end talent on both sides of the ball in Cam Coleman and Keldric Faulk. But Baylor has the steadier QB in Sawyer Robertson and Dave Aranda’s defense should force Jackson Arnold into at least a couple of mistakes. Give me Baylor and the points. PICK: Baylor 

ES: I have no confidence in Hugh Freeze and this Auburn team whatsoever. The Tigers have a lot of talent, but I just don’t think Jackson Arnold is being put in a good place to succeed. Honestly, a little surprised that the Tigers are favored here. PICK: Baylor 

No. 24 Tennessee (-14) vs. Syracuse (Atlanta, Georgia) 

SD: I have some big concerns about Tennessee’s offense coming into this game. The wide receiver room and the offensive line could prove to be an issue. But my bigger questions are with Josh Heupel, who has failed to produce an explosive offensive attack since Hendon Hooker left town. Fran Brown has faced Heupel’s system before from when he was at Georgia, so there won’t be many surprises. I think Syracuse covers and is live to win outright. PICK: Syracuse 

AO: Tennessee should win without too much trouble, but I’m not ready to lay 14 points in Joey Aguilar’s first game as the new starting quarterback. I’ll go with a cover for the more visually appealing orange. PICK: Syracuse 

DP: In Year 1, Fran Brown went 10-3 with the Orange to produce one of the better stories in the sport. But Syracuse was 6-7 against the spread. Quarterback Kyle McCord and a trio of 900-plus-yard pass-catchers were a massive part of the overall success. That offensive quartet is all gone. The book is out on how to defend the Tennessee offense — give up all the 6-yard stuff Tennessee wants and don’t get beat over the top — but I just don’t think this is the defense to give Tennessee fits. Syracuse ranked 111th in points per play allowed last season and it was fairly average at creating takeaway opportunities. Unless you’re making Joey Aguilar pay for his risks, you’re in trouble. Syracuse might be in trouble. This line opened at 12.5, bumped up over 14 points, and has settled back down at 2 scores. I think it’ll be a 17-point win, so I’m riding the Vols. PICK: Tennessee

AS: I think the Vols will win a close game, but it’ll be the sort of close game where it doesn’t feel all that close, if that makes sense. Tennessee’s defense will control every aspect of this matchup, but I still like the Orange to cover. The Vols’ new-look offense will have its struggles, but it’ll do enough to win a 17-9 game that feels more like a 3-score win for Rocky Top. Consider betting the under here. PICK: Syracuse 

ES: C’mon, guys. You’re talking to the UTK alum here. Vols by 50. PICK: Tennessee 

No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State (-1.5) 

SD: Ohio State is at home and it has the best player on the field for either team in Jeremiah Smith. I don’t really trust either quarterback yet, given their lack of experience. But with this line at close to a pick ‘em, I’ll take the home team. PICK: Ohio State 

AO: Texas pulled off the impossible in the College Football Playoff and contained Jeremiah Smith. Ryan Day and the Buckeyes, though, have had months to figure out how to make sure that doesn’t happen again. We may not see a ton of points, but Smith will come up big. PICK: Ohio State 

DP: Personally, I think it’s a tad offensive what the collective media space has done to Arch Manning this offseason. We created an impossible standard for him to live up to. And if he struggles in Week 1, like I think he might, he’ll get ripped to shreds. Ohio State has the best offensive play and the best defensive player in the matchup. Ohio State has the homefield advantage. Ohio State for me. PICK: Ohio State

AS: The Texas defense is the difference in this one. Julian Sayin looks like a first-time starting quarterback and throws multiple interceptions. Tre Wisner and CJ Baxter look strong behind a rebuilt offensive line. Ryan Wingo gets loose for a long touchdown and the Longhorns win a low-scoring game. PICK: Texas 

ES: It feels like this is going to be a big-time defensive battle, which favors the home team. Manning and Sayin both have talent, but they’ll be facing tough defenses to start the year. I’m not sure either will shine enough to overwhelm one way or the other. Don’t let me down, Buckeyes. PICK: Ohio State 

No. 8 Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State 

SD: For some unknown reason, Florida State quarterback Thomas Castellanos stirred things up this offseason and said he didn’t think Alabama could stop him without Nick Saban. I’m not sure where his confidence is coming from, but I do think it’s quite misplaced. PICK: Alabama 

AO: Even though Florida State is coming off a 2-10 season, this wasn’t an easy pick to make. I’m high on Alabama in 2025, and we’re all familiar with the offseason bulletin board material, but it’s always a tall task to face a Power 4 team on the road to open the season, as there’s a drive deep into left field by Castellanos and that’ll be a home run. PICK: Alabama 

DP: Which is more likely? A 5-foot-11 quarterback who got benched at Boston College leads a team months removed from a 2-10 season to an upset of Alabama? Or Ala-freaking-bama uses all those blue-chip freaks it has on one of college football’s best defenses to make a statement in the opening game of its season? This is not going to be a pretty game. PICK: Alabama 

AS: I have Alabama absolutely dominating this game. I think the Tide can cover the 13.5-point spread in the first quarter. Thomas Castellanos is going to wish he never poked the bear that is Kane Wommack’s defense. Ty Simpson looks… fine… and the Tide don’t need much of a running game to blow out FSU. PICK: Alabama 

ES: This is tough because there’s so much new talent on both sides. I’m of the opinion that Alabama will be the best team in the SEC this year though, so give me the Tide to win by a few touchdowns. That Tide defense should be nasty enough to keep Castellanos and Gus Malzahn at bay. PICK: Alabama 

No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson (-4) 

SD: I’d prefer to bet the under here, as I think both returning quarterbacks are a bit overrated in the market. I like Clemson’s defensive line as the best unit in this game, so I’ll go with Dabo Swinney’s bunch to win the battle for Death Valley. PICK: Clemson 

AO: LSU’s season-opening nightmares have to end sooner or later…right? Nothing against Cade Klubnik, but I’m a big Garrett Nussmeier guy this year. This feels like it could be decided by a field goal. PICK: LSU 

DP: This line moved through a key number to get to where it is here, and that’s good for us. Bill Connelly’s SP+ has the margin at 2.1 points and I think that’s more realistic. I think Cade Klubnik is going to have some success against LSU’s defense and I think Caden Durham is going to have some success against Clemson’s defense. We should get a tightrope finish. PICK: LSU

AS: Win or lose, I think LSU covers this spread. If LSU is going to win outright, Caden Durham is going to need to run wild behind his revamped offensive line. Clemson’s run defense is perhaps the weakest part of the team. LSU needs to take advantage so Clemson can’t sit back in coverage. PICK: LSU 

ES: I refuse to pick LSU to win a season opener, especially against an opponent as strong as Clemson. On the road. With a new offensive line. The Tigers will be good this season, but this is a recipe for disaster in my opinion. PICK: Clemson 

Utah (-6.5) at UCLA 

SD: I’m not going to pretend to understand it, but there’s been a lot of hype around the Utes this offseason despite going 7-11 in conference play the last 2 years. I’m choosing to somewhat blindly follow that momentum. Kyle Whittingham has a pretty long track record of being successful despite the last couple of lean years. PICK: Utah 

AO: It’s tempting to think Nico Iamaleava does something special in his California homecoming, but I trust Kyle Whittingham to have his team ready for the opener. Utes cover. PICK: Utah 

DP: DeShaun Foster basically has a Year 1 redux at UCLA, considering all that changed this offseason. Utah is emerging from a long, injury-ravaged trek through the woods. Kyle Whittingham is an elite coach, he has an elite defensive coordinator back for the 114th consecutive season together, and he finally made a necessary move at offensive coordinator. I don’t like that we’re all in agreement… again… but I like Utah in a “pour one out for the Pac-12” game. PICK: Utah 

AS: I think this is going to be the year of Utah. The Utes get most of their toughest opponents at home. This is a road game, sure, but I like Kyle Whittingham’s squad to come out strong and prove last season was a fluke. PICK: Utah 

ES: I’ve watched a lot of Nico Iamaleava, folks. He’s not good. He could be thanks to some very real arm talent, but I don’t trust UCLA to be able to teach him to read progressions at a high level in one offseason. On the other hand, I believe Utah is a serious contender to win the Big 12 this season – assuming it can keep its starting quarterback healthy for the first time in what seems like 47 years. If Dampier can make it to the end of the game, I think the Utes will win by a few touchdowns. PICK: Utah 

No. 13 South Carolina (-7.5) vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta, Georgia) 

SD: This is a hold-your-nose pick. I think South Carolina has been a bit overrated this offseason based on how much defensive talent it lost to the NFL in 2024. The Gamecocks have superstars in LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, but I’m doubtful they can adequately replace 5 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. On principle, I’m taking Virginia Tech to cover. PICK: Virginia Tech 

AO: I’m buying the South Carolina/LaNorris Sellers hype. The Gamecocks finished strong in 2024, and I think the momentum carries over into 2025. No hesitation taking an SEC team to cover against an ACC team. PICK: South Carolina 

DP: Go Cocks. PICK: South Carolina 

AS: I wish this line was South Carolina -6.5. These 2 squads combined to play in 11 (yes, 11!) one-score games in 2024. The Hokies went 0-5 in those games and the Gamecocks were 3-3. I’ll take that trend to continue, with South Carolina squeaking out a 4-point win in Atlanta on Sunday. PICK: Virginia Tech

ES: LaNorris Sellers is going to show out and cement himself as a Heisman Trophy candidate right from the jump. I don’t think this one will be particularly close. PICK: South Carolina 

No. 6 Notre Dame (-2.5) at No. 10 Miami 

SD: I think this will be a low-scoring game. I’m taking Miami because there doesn’t seem to be much faith in CJ Carr despite him being named the starter. Going on the road to Hard Rock Stadium in a top-10 game without any previous college experience is not ideal. Miami has a new defensive coordinator, too, so it’s hard to prepare for what this Canes’ defense could look like. I think they’ll be improved and we’ll see a Miami upset win. PICK: Miami 

AO: In a top-10 battle, I’m usually inclined to pick the home team, especially with points. I’m feeling Carson Beck might have a bounce-back year with the change of scenery from Athens to Coral Gables. PICK: Miami 

DP: I loved Miami last year. I do not understand the Miami love this year. I think the team is worse, I think the quarterback has significantly more questions, and the coach is still a liability in close games. I don’t trust Carson Beck after what I saw last season, and I certainly don’t trust him against this Notre Dame secondary, ripe with elite coverage guys. I don’t think this is a good matchup for Miami anywhere. PICK: Notre Dame  

AS: I’m fading Miami this year. Replacing Cam Ward with Carson Beck is going to take some getting used to. Notre Dame has horses up front along the offensive line once again. I’ll take the Irish to win by multiple scores. PICK: Notre Dame 

ES: This one is super intriguing. I’m of the opinion that Carson Beck will surprise a few people at Miami, but I think Notre Dame is a different beast right now. Jeremiyah Love is one of the best backs in the country, and Miami was known for its poor tackling last season. Not a great combination, and it could ultimately decide what I believe could be the game of the weekend. PICK: Notre Dame 

TCU (-3.5) at North Carolina 

SD: I may regret this, but I’m buying low on North Carolina after a messy offseason. I think Gio Lopez is pretty good and should be a big upgrade over what Carolina had at QB last season. Bill Belichick’s son, Steve, is running the defense, something he did a pretty good job of last year at Washington, considering what was left after Kalen DeBoer took the Alabama job. Also worth noting TCU is just 9-9 in conference play since its run to the national title game a few years ago. PICK: North Carolina 

AO: Bill Belichick getting points with a fired-up Kenan Stadium crowd? Let’s party. PICK: North Carolina 

DP: Sneaky fun quarterback matchup between the Tar Heels’ Gio Lopez and the Horned Frogs’ Josh Hoover. Since Georgia broke TCU, the Horned Frogs are 11-14 ATS and they are 1-5 ATS in out-of-conference games. That included a 66-42 loss to SMU last season as a 1.5-point favorite. You say you have no clue what North Carolina is this year? I say we still have no clue what TCU is under Sonny Dykes. PICK: North Carolina

AS: I’m not sure what to make of the whole Bill Belichick soap opera taking place in Chapel Hill this offseason. I’ll pick Josh Hoover and the Horned Frogs to spoil Belichick’s UNC debut. PICK: TCU 

ES: I have no clue what to make of Bill Belichick at North Carolina. None whatsoever. But the Tar Heels get the points, so I’ll pick UNC to pick up a win to start the Belichick era. PICK: North Carolina