The Saturday Down South returns for another week to give their ATS picks for some of the top college football games. While you won’t find many Big Ten games below — no one was interested in picking Iowa-UMass, for some reason — the Week 3 slate of games is packed with wonderful matchups across the SEC and the ACC.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via BetMGM. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 3 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 3. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
2025 season records:
- Andy Olson: 13-10-2
- Derek Peterson: 11-12-2
- Ethan Stone: 10-13-2
- Spenser Davis: 9-14-2
- Adam Spencer: 7-16-2
No. 12 Clemson (-3.5) at Georgia Tech
Spenser Davis: Here’s a fun fact: In the Brent Key era, Georgia Tech is 7-8 straight up as an underdog (and 10-5 against the spread). Winning (and covering) in these types of games is something the Yellow Jackets do quite often. And yet, I’m going with Clemson. Before the season started, Clemson was favored by almost double digits in this game at some shops. Clemson’s disappointing performance vs. LSU and slow start vs. Troy are certainly noteworthy, but I think this line has moved too far. PICK: Clemson
Andy Olson: I did not fill out a preseason top 25 this year, but I don’t think I would have ranked Clemson as high as others. I wasn’t super high on Clemson to begin the year and I’m feeling Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets at home in a big game. I wouldn’t be surprised by an outright upset, but the points certainly make this decision easier. PICK: Georgia Tech
Derek Peterson: Georgia Tech is 2-0 to begin the season despite being minus-4 in the turnover department and missing its starting quarterback for a game. I think this is a tricky spot for Clemson regardless of what is going on with Haynes King. The Tiger offense just doesn’t look right — 126th nationally in EPA per play — and you don’t typically fix problems in your first road game of the season. You typically expose new ones. PICK: Georgia Tech
Adam Spencer: I’m very worried about how much everyone has been on Georgia Tech in this spot. When the public is overwhelmingly on one side, it usually makes sense to play the other. If Haynes King isn’t 100% healthy for this game, it’s going to be tough for Georgia Tech to win. I’ll (reluctantly) take Clemson in this one. PICK: Clemson
Ethan Stone: Clemson’s offense has looked clunky to start the season. No run game and inconsistent play from Klubnik worry me even before you throw in Bobby Dodd magic for what will be Clemson’s first road test of the season. I like GT to win outright. PICK: Georgia Tech
Wisconsin at No. 19 Alabama (-20.5)
SD: Alabama has underwhelmed a lot under Kalen DeBoer, but all of the most disappointing performances have come away from home. In Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide have been pretty much unbeatable over the last couple of years. I think we’ll see another big-time effort from Alabama and I don’t think Wisconsin has the juice to keep up on either side of the ball. PICK: Alabama
AO: I’m currently in the camp that Alabama pulled an “LSU” of years past and just laid an egg in the opener. Alabama has key advantages, plus the home crowd at Bryant-Denny Stadium. I’ll take the tide to roll to a lopsided win over the Badgers. PICK: Alabama
DP: Wisconsin got the ground game going in Week 2 and its defense has played as well as any in the country through the opening 2 games of the season. I have zero interest in laying 3 touchdowns given the state of this Alabama team. Blowing out an awful ULM team does nothing for me. This was a team I backed to win the SEC just a few weeks ago, so I obviously still think there’s talent here, but I want to see the mindset change. PICK: Wisconsin
AS: I think it’s important here to ask why Florida State did what it did against Alabama. Thomas Castellanos was magnificent. Well, Wisconsin’s top QB, Billy Edwards Jr., is likely out for this matchup. Give me the Tide to (just barely) cover this massive spread. PICK: Alabama
ES: You can’t convince me that the amount of effort we saw against Florida State is enough to beat any competent team by 3 scores. PICK: Wisconsin
No. 6 Georgia (-3.5) at No. 15 Tennessee
SD: Georgia has created virtually zero explosive plays so far this season against lesser competition than it will face against the Vols. That would be easier to excuse if we weren’t coming off of a dreadful offensive season for the Bulldogs in 2024. I’ll take the points. PICK: Tennessee
AO: There’s a part of me that feels like the “old Georgia” (2021-23) will decide to show up on Saturday. But from what I’ve watched of these two teams so far, I can’t shake that 2025 Tennessee looks like it has a real chance to beat 2025 Georgia straight up. UT as a home underdog is too good to turn down, even if “old Georgia” shows up and makes fools of Vol backers. PICK: Tennessee
DP: Tennessee is the home side, but Tennessee is down both of its starting cornerbacks and hasn’t played up to its potential on defense. I’m anxious to see how Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar looks against a real defense. PICK: Georgia
AS: Tennessee’s corners being out worries me, but I haven’t seen anything from Gunner Stockton to show that he’s the guy to take advantage of that fact. I’m more inclined to play the under in this matchup, but since this article is all about picking spreads, give me the points with Tennessee. PICK: Tennessee
ES: I think this will be the most competitive Georgia/Tennessee matchup of the Josh Heupel era. This is Gunner Stockton’s first start in a true road environment and truth be told, I’m not worried about the Vols secondary at all with Ty Redmond and Colton Hood playing the way they are – though that unit cannot afford any more injuries. I think Neyland will get to Stockton and the Bulldogs’ offense in a low-scoring affair. PICK: Tennessee
Pitt (-7) at West Virginia
SD: West Virginia lost to Ohio last week and it wasn’t even that big of a surprise — the Mountaineers were only favored by 3.5 at most shops. Starting running back Jaheim White is also out for the year after suffering an injury on Saturday against the Bobcats. Still, I’m reluctant to lay a touchdown in a rivalry game that’s as heated as this one when neither team is anything special. PICK: West Virginia
AO: Throw out the records for the Backyard Brawl. I’m not sure about West Virginia pulling off the upset, but I think Rich Rodriguez will have the Mountaineers playing beyond their abilities for the bitter rivalry. PICK: West Virginia
DP: The line for this game opened under 2 points and has ballooned. The obvious play here is to back West Virginia in a rivalry spot. Neither team has played anyone, right? The problem is one of the “nobodies” the Mountaineers played beat them, and did so with a script that is plenty repeatable for Pitt. Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro had 87 rushing yards, which helped offset 3 interceptions. West Virginia got virtually nothing from its ground game. Eli Holstein can run, and Pitt has stopped the run wonderfully through its first 2 games. PICK: Pitt
AS: One of these teams just lost to Ohio. Not Ohio State. Ohio. One of these teams didn’t just lose to Ohio. That’s the extent of my analysis here for the Backyard Brawl. I’ll go with the Panthers. PICK: Pitt
ES: Neither of these teams has played a Power 4 opponent, but West Virginia still has a loss on its resume after falling 17-10 at Ohio last week. The Bobcats are no slouch, but West Virginia looked bad in that one – especially in the run game. Pitt, on the other hand, has allowed less than 80 yards rushing through 2 games and has the far superior QB in Eli Holstein. I like the Panthers to take control of this one on offense. PICK: Pitt
No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami (-17)
SD: My instinct is to fade South Florida coming off of a couple of big, high-profile wins. But it’s also a lookahead spot for Miami with a Florida matchup looming in Week 4. My guess is Miami is up by 21 points late and the cover comes down to whether or not USF can find the backdoor. PICK: South Florida
AO: Mario Cristobal should send his old Bama buddy Billy Napier something nice for making his job easy this week. There’s no way USF is sneaking up on Miami after going into The Swamp and pulling off the upset. I think the Canes will show everybody how it’s done and cover. PICK: Miami
DP: This is the point where I’d like to fade South Florida, but I just can’t at 17 points. Miami wins and the Bulls get a backdoor cover. PICK: South Florida
AS: I agree fully with Derek. Heck, if this spread was Miami –16.5, I might take the Hurricanes. I just can’t get there with –17, though. PICK: South Florida
ES: South Florida has earned enough respect from me to pick +17. PICK: South Florida
Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss (-8)
SD: I think Arkansas might be a bit overlooked this year. Taylen Green and Bobby Petrino is a lethal combination. At some point this year, the Razorbacks are going to win outright as a big underdog in SEC play. That might not be this week, but I do think the Hogs will cover. PICK: Arkansas
AO: If Arkansas were at home, I’d probably go for a Razorback cover. In Oxford, though, I think Pete Golding’s defense does some things to slow down Bobby Petrino’s offense, led by Taylen Green. I also expect Ole Miss to come in hungry, as the Rebels probably didn’t leave Lexington feeling all that satisfied. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: I think Austin Simmons is talented, it just doesn’t appear he’s ready. Against an Arkansas team that, offensively, is playing as well as any in the country to open the season, turnovers are going to be a major theme of this game. PICK: Arkansas
AS: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin apologized for not covering an 8.5-point spread at Kentucky last week. At home in Oxford, he doesn’t have to apologize to bettors this week. Take the over in this one and also play the Rebels to cover. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: I don’t trust Sam Pittman to win this one, but I think Taylen Green and the Razorbacks offense has enough juice to keep up with Kewan Lacy and Co. Throw in a few Austin Simmons turnovers and I think this will be competitive late. PICK: Arkansas
Florida at No. 3 LSU (-8.5)
SD: This is the perfect spot to hold your nose and do something uncomfortable. Everyone is ready to push Florida off the deep end while Brian Kelly is still getting praise for beating Clemson in Week 1. Meanwhile, UF responded very well to losses last season, Clemson struggled mightily against Troy in Week 2, and LSU might be down another starting offensive lineman this week. I’m buying low on the Gators and selling high on LSU. PICK: Florida
AO: Expect the unexpected gets overused in sports, but it’s absolutely the case for Florida and LSU. We’ve seen some weird things in these games over the years. UF’s last QB to win in Death Valley was Austin Appleby. Tim Tebow is the last Gator QB to win at night in Death Valley. Treon Harris, Kyle Trask and Graham Mertz, though, all played well in Death Valley night games since Tebow lied about his concussion recovery to give it a go in 2009. I think DJ Lagway and the Gators play better on Saturday than they did against USF. Probably not enough to win outright, but I like UF to cover. PICK: Florida
DP: LSU wins by 10 at home with the crowd at its back. If LSU hadn’t been sleepwalking last week, maybe I’d buy into Florida in a bounceback spot, but I think Brian Kelly will have been on his team’s butt this week to kick it back into gear. PICK: LSU
AS: LSU’s offensive line took a step back this past week against Louisiana Tech. But this is a team that beat Clemson by a touchdown on the road. At home, the Tigers should be at least 10 points better than a reeling Florida squad. Something is broken with the Gators. Garrett Nussmeier and company have another strong showing and start SEC play with a double-digit home victory. PICK: LSU
ES: I think LSU is a little overrated (think top 10 instead of top 3), but I’m just disgusted with that performance from Florida against USF. I think the Bulls are good for a G5 team, but Byrum Brown and Alex Golesh simply managed the game better than DJ Lagway, whose stock fell considerably after Saturday night. I have supreme confidence in Garrett Nuss and a really good Tigers defense, though. I don’t think they’ll cover by much, but give me the Tigers by 10-14. PICK: LSU
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame (-7)
SD: Texas A&M’s run defense numbers are appalling. The Aggies have faced UTSA and Utah State, yet are ranked 111th nationally in EPA per rush allowed, according to Game on Paper. Explosive plays have been a big issue. Marcel Reed is also banged up, although he is expected to play. I mostly liked what I saw from CJ Carr in Week 1 and I think he’ll play well at home against an Aggies team that I think is much worse than the Miami squad he faced a couple of weeks ago. PICK: Notre Dame
AO: I’m not crazy about laying the whole 7 here, but I feel more confident in Notre Dame winning after seeing the Irish at Miami. I wouldn’t be surprised by an A&M cover, but I think it’s ever so slightly more likely Notre Dame wins by more than 7. PICK: Notre Dame
DP: Notre Dame won this matchup in College Station last season by completely neutralizing the Texas A&M pass game. A&M’s defense held it in the game for a prolonged stretch. I don’t think this Aggie defense is quite as good, and Notre Dame has had extra time to prepare. Marcus Freeman is 6-1 ATS with a rest advantage, and I think Notre Dame will have a better plan this time around to get its playmakers the ball. All that being said, I think this A&M offense is better than it was a year ago. I would have loved to get a shorter number to back the Irish at, so I’ll go against the grain. PICK: Texas A&M
AS: I have my concerns about Notre Dame. I have my concerns about the Irish offense, namely regarding the usage of Jeremiyah Love (or lack thereof) down in Miami. But I also have my concerns about the Aggies at this point in the season. I’ll take Notre Dame to cover, just barely. PICK: Notre Dame
ES: Marcel Reed has not performed well on the road, and he’s yet to face a team like Notre Dame on the road, too. The Fighting Irish have also had an off-week and could use a turnaround after falling just short at Miami. I think the Irish win this one by a few scores. PICK: Notre Dame
Vanderbilt at No. 11 South Carolina (-5.5)
SD: I feel this is going to be a popular upset pick this week — and I agree. I think South Carolina’s offense is on track to be much, much worse than most believed it would be before the season began. Maybe Vicari Swain saves South Carolina yet again with another miraculous punt return touchdown, but I’d bet Clark Lea is smart enough not to punt it to him. Diego Pavia has quietly been awesome so far this season — I’m excited to see if he can translate that to an SEC road game. PICK: Vanderbilt
AO: I know matchups always vary, but it’s impossible to ignore what these two teams did to Virginia Tech in the first two weeks. I have to ride with Vanderbilt and the points. Williams-Brice Stadium at night is as rowdy as it gets, but I think Diego Pavia will feed off that energy. Pavia and the Dores are too hot to deny right now. PICK: Vanderbilt
DP: Vandy has done a lot of chirping this week, which will always worry me. You want to have a chip on the shoulder, but managing that so it doesn’t turn to overconfidence is difficult. Still, I’m really put off by the start South Carolina’s offense has had. While Vandy has been a machine through its first 2 games, South Carolina has done next to nothing inspiring on the offensive side of the ball. The defense and special teams (28 points) have almost matched the offensive output (34 points). That’s just not sustainable in any way, shape, or form, and it could very well lead to a collapse this weekend. I like the ‘Dores outright. PICK: Vanderbilt
AS: I don’t understand this line. At the very least, these are 2 evenly matched teams, so you give the home team 2-3 points for home-field advantage. The fact that the lifeless Gamecocks offense is favored by 5.5 points over a team with a pulse is suspect to me. This seems like a situation where preseason expectations are still guiding bettors rather than the results on the field through 2 weeks. It’s rare that we get a game in Week 3 with such similar résumés from both sides. Both the Commodores and Gamecocks have hosted an FCS squad and both have faced Virginia Tech away from home. The Commodores have fared much better in those games. PICK: Vanderbilt
ES: Apart from his first drive of the season, LaNorris Sellers has been a little underwhelming. Sorry Gamecock fans! I think he and the Gamecocks will pick it up at the end of the season as South Carolina always seems to do, but right now Diego Pavia is just playing better football. The Commodores’ offense, as a result, is legit. Man, this feels weird. PICK: Vanderbilt
Duke (-1) at Tulane
SD: Setting the scene here — Duke lured Darian Mensah away from Tulane this offseason with a reported multi-million dollar NIL package. I imagine Jon Sumrall and the Green Wave have some feelings about that. It’s not often a prized transfer QB has to go on the road to face his former school and teammates and coaches the very next season. And yet, I like Duke. Tulane has had a heck of a time trying to replace Mensah and the early returns on Jake Retzlaff in that role have been less than reassuring. Tulane’s defense got pushed around by South Alabama last week, too. PICK: Duke
AO: We don’t talk about Tulane as a particularly tough place to play, but I can’t pick Duke on the road after seeing that Illinois game at home. Darian Mensah is obviously motivated to ball out in his return, but the Green Wave defense will be giving something extra, too. PICK: Tulane
DP: Duke lost by 26 points at home to Illinois but it didn’t get outplayed by 26 points. Quite the opposite, in fact. The Blue Devils outgained Illinois on a yards-per-play basis 7.0 to 5.7. They were pretty good on third down, generated 10 tackles for loss, only had 2 of their own plays stuffed for a loss, and trailed by just a single point at the break. They lost by 26 because they turned the ball over 5 times, leading to 21 Illini points. Duke beat Duke. And that leads me to believe they’ll be itching to get back on the field. Add the Mensah element of it all — which Spenser laid out above — and I like the Blue Devils in a bounceback spot. PICK: Duke
AS: This is a weird game, as Duke heads to New Orleans to face the Green Wave. Darian Mensah is obviously very familiar with this stadium and the Tulane squad, and I was very impressed with the Duke front 7 against a Playoff-caliber Illinois team last week. Give me Duke to win and cover. PICK: Duke
ES: I think Tulane mops the floor with Duke against former Green Wave QB Darian Mensah. PICK: Tulane
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
