Friday Forecast: SDS staff picks against the spread for Week 5

The Saturday Down South staff returns for another week to give their ATS picks for some of the top college football games.

And the Week 5 slate of games is arguably one of the best of the entire season. We have 4 games between ranked opponents, including a battle of top-6 teams in the Big Ten and a colossal Alabama-Georgia battle in the SEC. We also have 6 additional games where unranked teams host ranked opponents.

Let’s get to the staff picks.

(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)

Week 5 college football picks

Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 5. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.

No. 24 TCU at Arizona State 

Spenser Davis: I like TCU in this matchup. Arizona State loves to blitz but TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has been good against pressure this season. Per PFF, he’s 10-for-18 for 187 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 turnover-worthy plays. PICK: TCU +3 

Andy Olson: This looks like a pretty even matchup on paper. Considering SP+ likes TCU outright, I’ll gladly take the Horned Frogs with the points. PICK: TCU +3.5 

Derek Peterson: I was holding out for 3.5 here and I got it from ESPN Bet. I think TCU can win outright. Quarterback Josh Hoover is playing at a really high level right now, ranking eighth in QBR, but he’s not doing it all for the Horned Frogs. They’ve been good enough defensively, particularly against the run. But I think we’ve been too quick to write off the defending Big 12 champs, as well. Winning at Baylor is a positive sign for Auburn but not for ASU? I don’t buy it. Quarterback Sam Leavitt is starting to find his groove and Raleek Brown is running well. ASU will put up a fight. Under the key number and I would have backed ASU. At 3.5, I like the Toads. PICK: TCU +3.5

Adam Spencer: The Sun Devils barely survived at Baylor this past weekend, but I do think Arizona State will be much tougher to beat at home. PICK: Arizona State -3 

Ethan Stone: This feels like a toss-up to me, so I’m going to go with the best quarterback and the points. Don’t let me down, Josh Hoover. PICK: TCU +3 

No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois 

SD: Since this has stayed under a touchdown, I’ll lay it with the Trojans. The Illinois secondary appears to be highly compromised due to injury, and USC has the most productive passing offense in the country through the first 4 weeks. PICK: USC -6.5  

AO: I was on the Illinois bandwagon until last week’s debacle. I have zero confidence in the Illini containing the Trojan passing attack. PICK: USC -6.5 

DP: USC didn’t kick off against Michigan State until 11 p.m. ET last Saturday. The Trojans will kick off against the Illini this weekend at noon ET. That’s 9 a.m. local time for the California kids. We can clown Lincoln Riley for complaining about the schedule — USC made this bed, after all — but it doesn’t change the validity of what he’s saying. USC’s last cross-country road trip featured a sluggish start (3 first-quarter points). Plus, Illinois should be woken up after getting embarrassed last week. At home, give me the Illini in a bounce-back spot. PICK: Illinois +7

AS: Call me crazy, but I don’t think Illinois is as bad as it was last week against Indiana. With Big Noon Kickoff in town, I say the Illini bounce back in a big way. I like Illinois to win outright, but since I only have to pick the spread here, give me the Illini to cover. PICK: Illinois +6.5 

ES: Get ready to learn Jayden Maiava, Illinois. PICK: USC -6.5 

No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas 

SD: A couple of weeks ago, I was thinking I’d be able to back Arkansas as a sneaky upset candidate in this spot. No one would have expected this line to be shorter than a touchdown in the preseason, let alone all the way down to where it is now. I’d rather have the over in this game, but given where the market is, I’ll take the Irish. PICK: Notre Dame -3.5 

AO: Arkansas is getting points while SP+ is projecting the Razorbacks to win straight up, so I was sold pretty quickly on taking the Hogs to cover. Thinking about Chris Ash’s struggling defense trying to stop Bobby Petrino’s offense makes me feel even better about rolling with the Razorbacks. PICK: Arkansas +4.5 

DP: This number opened at 12.5 and is now all the way down to 3.5 at some shops. My preference would be to avoid picking against this spread entirely. But, at such a small number, I have to buy the Irish. The Arkansas defense isn’t great, and the Hogs have fumbled away games in back-to-back weeks. With as bad as the Notre Dame defense has looked through its first 3 games, I can’t believe it’s that bad. I think Marcus Freeman will have his team ready in a must-have game for the Irish. PICK: Notre Dame -3.5

AS: I think Arkansas had the wind knocked out of its sails last weekend in that devastating loss to Memphis. Taylen Green and the offense will put up some points, sure, but I like Notre Dame, which still has slim Playoff hopes, to win easily. PICK: Notre Dame -4.5 

ES: Both these teams are sub-75 in total defense to start the year, and both have had to play some great offenses so far. I don’t think that stat is skewed due to competition – both these teams are simply bad defensively. I like Taylen Green under center over CJ Carr. This one will be high-scoring and within a touchdown. PICK: Arkansas +4.5 

No. 1 Ohio State at Washington 

SD: I like the Huskies here. Julian Sayin’s first road start is a big reason why. I also think Washington is just generally underrated by the public, so there should be some value here on Jedd Fisch’s team. PICK: Washington +8.5 

AO: With all due respect to Husky Stadium, I just don’t see Washington being in this game with Ohio State. Jedd Fisch is a good Xs and Os coach, but the talent differential is too much to overcome. I know Seattle isn’t the usual OSU road trip, but I think the Buckeyes remind everyone this weekend that the No. 1 ranking isn’t just a media courtesy to the defending national champ. PICK: Ohio State -7.5 

DP: Ohio State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a single-digit favorite. The 3 ATS losses were against Oregon on the road in 2024, Mizzou on a neutral field in the 2023 postseason, and Notre Dame on the road in the 2023 regular season. This Washington team doesn’t hold a candle to any of those squads. UW is 3-0, and the analytics are friendly — UW is fifth nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA per play — but, to me, this feels like a classic smoke-and-mirrors spot. Colorado State stinks. Washington State has given up 59 points in consecutive weeks. UC Davis is UC Davis. We watched Matt Patricia flummox Arch Manning. Do we really think the 5-foot-11 Demond Williams is going to get the better of the Buckeyes? I don’t. PICK: Ohio State -7.5

AS: I’m hammering the Buckeyes as 7.5-point favorites here. Are you kidding me? I think Washington is a fine team, and yeah, this game is in Seattle. But the Buckeyes are No. 1 for a reason and are coming off a bye. Ohio State wins by multiple touchdowns. PICK: Ohio State -7.5 

ES: You know what? Let’s get nuts. Julian Sayin is making his first career road start at a very loud Husky Stadium – which is thousands of miles from Columbus – at 12:30 local time. Alternatively, Demond Williams and the Washington offense have been no joke this year – I think they can compete even against a top-tier Ohio State defense. PICK: Washington +8 

No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss 

SD: Ole Miss is a pretty strong lean for me here. In hindsight, none of LSU’s performances this season have been all that impressive. Clemson and Florida have flatlined. This will be a very tough road game, and I have a lot of belief in Trinidad Chambliss after what he’s been able to do over the first couple of weeks. PICK: Ole Miss -1.5 

AO: I’m a little hesitant about trusting a Division II transfer quarterback against an elite defense like LSU, but I just can’t bring myself to pick against Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss offense right now. The Rebels have the coaching edge and homefield advantage. I like them to win by a field goal and cover. PICK: Ole Miss -1.5 

DP: I took the Rebels on the money line in my Tuesday column. With LSU’s top running back a game-time decision for the game, compounding a season-long issue with the run game, I just trust the Ole Miss offense more. I don’t think the Tigers can keep up. PICK: Ole Miss -1.5

AS: I have LSU holding onto the No. 1 spot in my weekly power rankings. I’m going to go down with the ship on that one. LSU is my pick until it proves its defense isn’t good enough to cover up for its offense. Give me the Bayou Bengals to win this one. PICK: LSU +1.5 

ES: No way I’m picking against Ole Miss’s offense in this spot. LSU looked suspect against Clemson and Florida, and that’s putting it nicely. The Rebels get the Tigers at home, and the damage is only 1.5? This was an easy one. PICK: Ole Miss -1.5 

Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M 

SD: Auburn has played 2 tough road games already. The Tigers picked up a nice win over Baylor and easily could have won in Norman this past weekend if a few bounces go their way. This Auburn wide receiver core is monstrous, and the defense is legit. I don’t particularly care that Jackson Arnold won’t throw it over the middle of the field. His receivers are good enough to catch plenty of go routes, his running game is elite, and he’s a pretty physical runner himself. I think Auburn covers comfortably. PICK: Auburn +6.5 

AO: A&M, I want to believe in you. If you’re going to be a Playoff contender, you take care of business at home against a middle-of-the-pack Auburn team. But if another 8-4 year is in store, this is where you have one of those head-scratching letdown games. For now, I’ll trust the Aggie offense to score too much for the Tigers to keep up on the road. PICK: Texas A&M -6.5 

DP: I’m concerned that Auburn will be hungover after the Oklahoma game. The AD putting out a whiny statement 5 days after the game reeks. That being said, I like the way Auburn matches up. The Tigers should be able to run the ball on an Aggie defense that hasn’t figured things out yet up front. Auburn lost to OU because it gave up 10 sacks. Texas A&M will not replicate that performance. PICK: Auburn +6.5

AS: This is a second-straight brutal road game for Auburn. Jackson Arnold didn’t look great in Norman last weekend. Texas A&M’s offense is one of the best in the entire SEC. That’s a bad combo for Hugh Freeze and company. PICK: Texas A&M -6.5 

ES: Mike Elko and Co. get to prepare for Auburn with a bye after beating Notre Dame in South Bend. Jackson Arnold is coming off a rough return to Norman – and I think he’ll have similar issues against this crowd at Kyle Field. Auburn’s defense is going to test Texas A&M’s offensive weapons for the first time this season, so this was far from an easy pick, but I’ll take Texas A&M by 10 or so. PICK: Texas A&M -6.5 

No. 11 Indiana at Iowa 

SD: Iowa’s defense might suck. The Hawkeyes gave up 400 yards of offense last week to Rutgers. What happens when they face someone good? I faded Indiana last week and for most of last season. I’m tired of trying to find the top of the market for the Hoosiers. Let’s just assume we’re not there yet and adjust if need be next week. PICK: Indiana -7.5 

AO: I feel like I need to go Bart Simpson at the chalkboard after questioning Indiana being favored against Illinois. I will not question the Hoosiers as favorites in a Big Ten game. I will not question the Hoosiers as favorites in a Big Ten game. As for Saturday, I don’t see Iowa keeping up with the Hoosiers. PICK: Indiana -7.5 

DP: Interestingly enough, I was the only one to back Indiana against the number last week and now I’m the only one to go against the Hoosiers this week. I felt good about my pick last week. I’m holding my nose this week. I just get the sense that Indiana emptied the clip a week ago to make a statement and might be a little sluggish on the road a week later. Since 2016, Iowa has been a home underdog only 9 times. The Hawkeyes are 4-4-1 ATS with 2 outright victories in those games. I think I trust Kirk Ferentz in these spots. He has 34 outright wins and a winning record against the spread as a dog since 2003. PICK: Iowa +8.5

AS: Playing at Iowa is never easy. But Indiana might be legit this year (again). I don’t think Illinois is as bad as it looked last week in Bloomington. The Hoosiers might just be that good. Plus, Iowa has no chance of scoring enough points to keep up in this one. PICK: Indiana -7.5 

ES: Plus-7.5?? Against that Hoosiers offense? I am laughing. For transparency, I think this line should be about 21.5, even in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have not been great on defense as they usually are, and a Mark Gronowski-led offense has only been marginally better than past seasons. This is going to be a rout. PICK: Indiana -7.5 

No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State 

SD: I think Mississippi State is going to put up some points in this matchup. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 30-plus given Tennessee’s cornerback situation and their general lack of success on defense this year. I still expect the Vols to win (Mississippi State might not be able to stop the run), but I think Jeff Lebby’s offense finds a way to beat the number at home. PICK: Mississippi State +8.5 

AO: Joey Aguilar has been really impressive, but I don’t care who you are, Starkville is a hell of a place to make your first SEC road start. It also seems like the Bulldogs have had this game circled for a while. Tennessee has been more thoroughly tested, but I like MSU to keep this a 1-score game. PICK: Mississippi State +8.5 

DP: Starkville solidifies itself as a House of Horrors once again, and Mississippi State validates itself as a significantly improved team in Year 2 under Jeff Lebby. Tennessee’s defense is a step behind last year’s group, and MSU appears to have cleaned up its act on that side of the ball. PICK: Mississippi State +8.5

AS: I know Starkville is a tough place to play. But the Bulldogs also didn’t win a game against an SEC foe at Davis Wade Stadium in 2024. Or in 2023, for that matter. I’ll take Tennessee to take another step toward the Playoff with a convincing win in this matchup. PICK: Tennessee -8 

ES: As a Tennessee fan… this game makes me a bit nervous. Tennessee has been a completely different team on the road compared to at home under Josh Heupel. A lot of that likely boils down to communication on defense – an area where Tennessee just has not been great, unlike last year. Blake Shapen can absolutely take advantage of a banged-up Vols secondary. Tennessee has the talent advantage and a better offense – I don’t think they lose outright – but I could see this being within one score late. PICK: Mississippi State +8 

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State 

SD: Drew Allar’s stats in big games are just putrid. He’s well below-average for what you’d expect from a mediocre quarterback, let alone someone who gets NFL buzz. And yet, Penn State is at home. I have a tremendous amount of faith in Andy Kotelnicki. Penn State’s running game and defense are elite. I assume Oregon will be a very public side – I’ll zag and take the Nittany Lions. PICK: Penn State -3.5 

AO: The halfpoint did it for me. This is supposed to be Penn State’s year, and the Nittany Lions may get the white out win, but I can’t pick against Dan Lanning’s team keeping this within a field goal. Sco Ducks. PICK: Oregon +3.5 

DP: I thought Penn State would win this game before the season began. I don’t think that anymore. I owe Dante Moore an apology for doubting him. In regular-season games where the spread is between 6 points either way, Penn State is 0-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 9-9 ATS since the start of the 2017 season.We got above the key number of 3 here, which is all I needed to see. PICK: Oregon +3.5

AS: Penn State wins games it is supposed to win. This game is a toss-up, though, which means James Franklin’s squad might not be up to the task, even at home. The +3.5 makes me nervous, too. Maybe if it was Penn State –1 I’d be interested. But for now, we fly with the Ducks. PICK: Oregon +3.5 

ES: Penn State can prepare all it wants. Throw in a white-out, sure. James Franklin’s record against top-tier opponents is still there. And the Nittany Lions still scheduled FIU, Villanova, and Nevada to warm them up for an Oregon team that has been simply demolishing opponents. No practice can simulate game speed against elite talent like the Ducks have. And Oregon gets a field goal? If they’re ever going to make the jump, it must be now, but I cannot pick Penn State here. PICK: Oregon +3.5 

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia 

SD: I have a lot more belief in this Alabama team than I do in Georgia, particularly with the offensive coaching staffs. In a game that has surprisingly few dominant defensive players for a matchup of this magnitude, I’m going to back the best offense. PICK: Alabama +3 

AO: Watching Georgia beat Tennessee, I thought I’d be picking the Dawgs. But I can’t turn down Alabama with more than a field goal. Ty Simpson and the Tide have been a different team since the Week 1 loss. PICK: Alabama +3.5 

DP: Georgia hasn’t lost a home game since 2019. Kalen DeBoer has just a .640 winning percentage in road games as an FBS head coach, and that record is bolstered by a 5-0 run with Washington in 2023. DeBoer is also only 14-11 ATS on the road, another number that is made significantly better by 1 season (5-1 ATS in 2021 with Fresno State). I’m taking the Dawgs. PICK: Georgia -2.5

AS: I’m in a wait-and-see mode with Alabama. The Tide looked pathetic in Week 1 at FSU. This is their first road game and first real challenge since then. Georgia wins and covers. PICK: Georgia -2.5 

ES: I’m not betting against Kirby Smart at home against an Alabama team that looked terrible against a good Florida State squad. I would love it if this line was -2.5, though. PICK: Georgia -3