Friday Forecast: SDS staff picks against the spread for Week 6

The Saturday Down South staff returns for another week to give their ATS picks for some of the top college football games.

In Week 6, we have a banger of a matchup in Miami between ACC contenders. We have a grudge match in the SEC. We have a top-15 Big 12 team hitting the road as an underdog to an unranked opponent. And then we have whatever is going on in the Big Ten, where 5 of the 7 games involving league teams have spreads of at least 10.5 points.

(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)

Week 6 college football picks

Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 6. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.

Kentucky at No. 12 Georgia

Spenser Davis: Kentucky is always much worse than Georgia, and yet this game usually seems to be close. The Wildcats have covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. The Bulldogs have Auburn next week, too. I think Kentucky does just enough to beat the number. PICK: Kentucky +20.5 

Andy Olson: I’m normally hesitant to lay more than 3 touchdowns against an SEC team, but I think this one will be all Georgia. I don’t expect the Wildcats to put many points on the board at Sanford Stadium. PICK: Georgia -20.5 

Derek Peterson: Georgia demolished Kentucky the last time the Wildcats visited Athens. And I am highly skeptical of this Kentucky team’s quality. But here’s the rub: I don’t think Georgia’s quality matches Georgia’s reputation anymore. The Dawgs are 9-22-1 ATS since the start of the 2023 season. The Dawgs are 2-8 ATS against conference opponents when favored by at least 14 points during that same time. The defense isn’t what it used to be. SEC games are getting tighter and tighter. This is just entirely too rich for my blood. PICK: Kentucky +20.5

Adam Spencer: I really wanted to pick Kentucky here, because the Wildcats (almost) always play the Bulldogs tough. I’m not buying the Georgia coming off a loss narrative, but I just don’t think Kentucky can exploit Georgia’s biggest weaknesses. If the Wildcats had a better QB, I’d pick them to cover. But they don’t, so… PICK: Georgia -20.5 

Ethan Stone: South Carolina just covered this spread at home, so I’d say Georgia can as well. PICK: Georgia -20.5 

No. 14 Iowa State at Cincinnati 

SD: You don’t often see the No. 14 team in the country be an underdog to an unranked foe. Typically, the betting markets are sharper than the AP Poll in this situation. I like Cincinnati for that reason alone, but I’m also happy to fade the Cyclones coming off of a blowout win last week. PICK: Cincinnati -1.5 

AO: I’ll roll with the Cyclones as road dogs. I think Rocco Becht & Co do enough to control the tempo and pull off the betting upset. PICK: Iowa State +1.5 

DP: Cincy has been rolling. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is white-hot. I think that has caused a bit of an overvaluing in the market. Iowa State is 27-15 ATS as a dog under Matt Campbell. Iowa State is also 6-1 over the last 2 years in games decided by 3 points or less. We saw last week what the ‘Clones can do to a team if they are able to dictate game flow. And we know Iowa State can win tight ball games when it isn’t the one dictating the terms. I trust that more than a hot spell. PICK: Iowa State +1.5

AS: This has “rat line” written all over it. Why are the Cyclones underdogs against Cincinnati on the road? It doesn’t make sense. This is a situation where I’ll say the sportsbooks know something I don’t know. Give me Cincinnati, I guess. PICK: Cincinnati -1.5 

ES: I understand the Cyclones are on the road, but I think the wrong team is favored here. Give me Iowa State. PICK: Iowa State +1.5 

Clemson at North Carolina 

SD: I think Clemson will take some of its frustrations out on the Tar Heels this week. Carolina has been abysmal against every half-decent opponent it has faced this year. Clemson still has NFL-level talent at most positions. I’ll lay it with Clemson. PICK: Clemson -14 

AO: Clemson is a huge disappointment this year, but the Tigers aren’t quite the mess that is Bill Belichick’s team. Unless the whole team has quit on Dabo Swinney, Clemson should cover. PICK: Clemson -14 

DP: In Clemson’s last 9 games against power conference teams, the Tigers are 3-6. The 3 wins have come by an average of 5.7 points. What about Clemson’s form of late suggests the Tigers are capable of blowing anyone out? North Carolina has problems of its own, but I don’t believe Clemson is equipped to win a game against another power conference opponent by more than 2 touchdowns right now and I’m content to keep believing that until shown actual evidence to the contrary. PICK: North Carolina +14.5

AS: Speaking to what Andy said, what if Clemson *has* quit on Dabo? The Tigers have already lost to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Would it really be that much more of a stretch if the Fighting Bill Belichicks kept it within 2 scores? Give me the Heels to cover. PICK: North Carolina +14.5 

ES: The Tar Heels have been an unmitigated disaster this season, and both of their matchups against power conference opponents were blowouts. Clemson is not good, but they’re considerably more talented – at the line of scrimmage especially. I’ll take the Tigers. PICK: Clemson -14 

No. 9 Texas at Florida 

SD: Earlier this week, I liked Florida at +7. That number is now long gone. I’m not sure why the line is moving that much without any (public) injury news to speak of, but I’m not buying the move as a good one given the information we have now. I think the Longhorns win by 6 or so and cover this number. PICK: Texas -4.5  

AO: The Swamp has been good for delivering (at least) one big upset a season. Before the season, I had Texas circled as the “Swamp game” on Florida’s schedule. Watching the Gators the past 3 games, though, I don’t think even The Swamp can lift Florida to victory. Texas is not the defense Florida wants to face to try to get right on offense. PICK: Texas -4.5 

DP: Fine. I’ll be the one who saves the graphic. Texas has done nothing of note since opening the season with a loss in Columbus. Texas hasn’t played another power conference opponent since scoring 7 points against Ohio State. Though Florida hasn’t looked good at all in recent weeks, Florida has gone up against one of the toughest early-season schedules of any team. In fact, the third-toughest, according to FPI. In a game between two disappointing offenses and two dominant defenses, I think that combination of experience and home-field advantage serves the Gators. One positive of the Billy Napier Experience is that his players don’t quit on him. PICK: Florida +5.5

AS: The Texas defense is elite, no matter how much the offense is struggling. The Longhorns are better on that side of the ball than LSU and (stop reading here, Andy) we all know how DJ Lagway performed against the LSU secondary. Yikes. Give me Texas to roll. PICK: Texas -5.5 

ES: This might be cheating, but if the Gators among us isn’t taking Florida in the Swamp, neither am I. Thanks for the extra point, DraftKings. PICK: Texas -4.5 

No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama 

SD: Everyone has been talking so much about Diego Pavia that no one has realized that Vanderbilt’s defense stinks. The Commodores just gave up 6.2 yards per play to Utah State. South Carolina put up 5.2 yards per play while playing most of the game with a backup quarterback. I think Alabama wins by 2 touchdowns. PICK: Alabama -10.5  

AO: That dreaded half point gives me a little pause, but I’m rolling with the Tide to cover. I think Alabama has shown that Week 1 against FSU was just a bad game, and not the reflection of a bad team. Vanderbilt has been very impressive this year, but Bama at Bryant-Denny is a different animal. PICK: Alabama -10.5 

DP: Vandy was the pick in my Tuesday “early action” column. Vandy was included in my Wednesday “best bets” column. Vandy is still the pick here. And I get an extra point to work with? While I can appreciate all the “Alabama won’t overlook Vanderbilt again” talk this week, I think that narrative misses a key point. Vanderbilt isn’t a plucky upstart. Vanderbilt is a legitimately good football team. PICK: Vanderbilt +11.5

AS: I was going to pick Vanderbilt in this game. Then the Commodores gave up 35 points to Utah State. Alabama is much better than Utah State offensively. I’ll say that confidently. PICK: Alabama -10.5 

ES: Both teams had this one circled this offseason. Alabama has done enough to prove it’s still for real after losing to Florida State, but this is also a legitimately different Vanderbilt squad. I thought this line was going to be more like Alabama –7.5, and I don’t think this one will be a blowout either way. Let’s see what you’ve got, Vanderbilt. PICK: Vanderbilt +10.5 

Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame 

SD: Why is Boise getting more than 3 touchdowns against a Notre Dame defense that hasn’t stopped anyone except an Arkansas team that had clearly quit last week? Boise is pretty good and this is a must-win game for the Broncos if they want any shot of making the College Football Playoff. Per Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric, Boise has actually out-performed Notre Dame this season. I don’t think the Irish are anywhere near as good as Arkansas made them look last week. PICK: Boise State +21.5 

AO: Notre Dame made fools of every Arkansas backer, including yours truly, last week. Winning like that in an SEC stadium is impressive, but are the Irish due for a Week 6 letdown? As noted by VSiN’s Tim Murray, Marcus Freeman’s teams have surprisingly struggled to cover against unranked Group of 5 opponents. Boise State has been playing well since the USF loss. I don’t think ND is on upset alert, but I’ll take the Broncos to cover. PICK: Boise State +21 

DP: I agree wholeheartedly with everything Spenser wrote. That’s my take on this game as well. Way too many points. PICK: Boise State +20.5

AS: This game is in South Bend. It looks like CJ Carr and the offense gained some much-needed confidence against Arkansas. I know Boise State is almost certainly better than Arkansas this year, but now that Marcus Freeman has remembered that Jeremiyah Love exists and is a member of his football team, I feel good backing the Irish in this spot. PICK: Notre Dame -21.5 

ES: Notre Dame is a top 10 roster that lost by a combined 4 points to the current No. 3 and No. 6 teams in the country. They beat Purdue and Arkansas by 25+ and get this one at home. I’ll take the Irish at –21. PICK: Notre Dame -21 

No. 24 Virginia at Louisville 

SD: I was on Virginia last week against the Noles and that proved to be a good choice. I’m going to try to get out while I’m ahead, though, and sell high on the Cavs on the back of their biggest win in recent memory. I also think Louisville can force Chandler Morris into a bad decision or two — the Cardinals have one of the top-performing secondaries in the country. PICK: Louisville -6.5 

AO: I was impressed by Virginia in the thrilling win over FSU, but I think the Hoos stumble on Saturday. I’ll take Louisville to cover, trusting the Cardinal defense to create a few turnovers with the help of the home crowd. PICK: Louisville -6.5 

DP: Louisville’s secondary against Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris is a matchup that leans toward the Cards. Morris is a guy who flirts with disaster quite a bit. He threw 3 picks last week, getting burned for the first time this season after 5 turnover-worthy plays and only 1 interception through Virginia’s first 4 games. Louisville gets its hands on a ton of balls, and I think the Cards can win the turnover battle here. In what projects as a high-scoring game, that’s enough to win. PICK: Louisville -6.5

AS: Classic letdown spot for the Cavaliers. They’re riding high after a thrilling win over Florida State, but now they have to hit the road. Look for the Jeff Brohm offense under QB Miller Moss to sling it all over the field. PICK: Louisville -6.5 

ES: Fanatics has Viginia at +7.5, and I’ll take that all day long. I understand the Hoos are on the road, and I understand that this is usually an area where Virginia should stumble following a big win. We’ll see. PICK: Virginia +7.5 

Michigan State at Nebraska  

SD: Pop quiz: When was the last time Nebraska won a Big Ten game by 12+ points against a squad that went on to make a bowl game that season? The answer is 2018. I think Nebraska will do its part to end that streak on Saturday. The Huskers have an excellent passing offense and Michigan State is near the bottom of the FBS leaderboard in EPA-per-pass allowed and pass defense success rate. PICK: Nebraska -11.5 

AO: In a matchup with two talented quarterbacks, I don’t feel too confident in either passing defense. Nebraska will probably put together a few long drives to keep this from feeling like a shootout. I’ll take Sparty to cover. PICK: Michigan State +11.5 

DP: Michigan State’s defense stinks. And this Nebraska defense will be the best unit the Spartans have played to this point in the season. Give me Herbie. PICK: Nebraska +11.5

AS: Michigan State is bad. Like, bad bad. I’m not buying a “close” loss at USC. I’m not buying a 2OT win over Boston College. This team is going to come crashing down this weekend. PICK: Nebraska -11.5 

ES: If Michigan State struggled on the road against USC, how are they going to perform against Nebraska, which has a better defense and a similarly effective offense? Admittedly, I’m not confident here, but when I’m facing uncertainty, I’ll usually defer to the home team. PICK: Nebraska -11.5 

No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State 

SD: I love the Noles the this week. Miami’s résumé is still a bit thin in my opinion and I think this Florida State offense is legit. The Virginia loss probably means FSU comes at a discount this week and I intend to take advantage. PICK: Florida State +4.5 

AO: Do I have the option to pick a giant meteor? Kidding. My Saturdays have revolved around UF football for as long as I can remember, but I’ve always enjoyed watching the Florida State–Miami game and appreciate the rivalry. I expect the Miami pass rush will get to Tommy Castellanos and cause some problems. Doak Campbell Stadium can be a tough place to play, but Carson Beck has been in plenty of hostile environments. PICK: Miami -4 

DP: This is the toughest game on the board for me. I’m not sure how Florida State blocks Miami’s defensive front, but I don’t think the Seminoles, who have bee powerful at the line of scrimmage all year, are going to just get run off the ball. PICK: Florida State +4.5

AS: This is the toughest game of the week to pick in my opinion. FSU is coming off a loss at Virginia, but Virginia is feistier than it has been in years past. I’ll (reluctantly) take the Seminoles to cover at home. PICK: Florida State +4.5 

ES: I’ll quote myself from above. “When I’m facing uncertainty, I’ll usually defer to the home team.” I lean Florida State to cover anyway – the Seminoles need this one after falling to Virginia last week. I think Miami by 3 is very possible. PICK: Florida State +4.5 

Mississippi State at No. 6 Texas A&M 

SD: Mississippi State has been way better this year than I expected. This will be a really tough game on the road, but I actually think the Bulldogs are live to make this game pretty interesting late into the fourth quarter. Mississippi State has the best combination of offensive firepower and pass defense that Texas A&M has seen all season. I think this is way too many points. PICK: Mississippi State +16.5 

AO: I’m not crazy about a 14-point win for Texas A&M not being enough to cover the spread, but I feel better about the Aggies’ chances of winning big at home than Mississippi State going into Kyle Field and keeping it close. This is MSU’s first road SEC game of the season, and I worry about the Bulldogs being a bit drained after the heartbreaking loss to Tennessee. PICK: Texas A&M –14.5 

DP: Through the first 12 conference games of the SEC season, the average margin between the 2 sides has been 9.1 points. A&M has yet to comfortably win a game against another power conference team, or put together a complete performance. Mississippi State is turning opponents over and running well. That formula travels. PICK: Mississippi State +16.5

AS: I didn’t like what I saw from the Texas A&M offense last week against Auburn. After the opening drive, the Aggies struggled to move the ball at all. Mississippi State’s offense is more potent than Auburn’s. I think this line is way too high in favor of the Aggies. Give me Texas A&M to win, but Mississippi State should cover comfortably. PICK: Mississippi State +15.5 

ES: This line feels massive for a Mississippi State team that very nearly beat Tennessee last week. Even on the road. PICK: Mississippi State +15.5