Monday Down South: Georgia proves, again, it’s still the team to trust the most
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Takeaways, trends and technicalities from Week 12 in the SEC.
Still Kirby after all these years
Twelve Saturdays down, 3 to go before another year’s worth of hype, hope and speculation yields to cold, hard reality. For the 7 SEC teams whose postseason goals remain plausibly within reach, it’s gut-check time: In the absence of an obvious, week-in, week-out overlord, who has earned the benefit of the doubt for the long haul, and whose clock is on the verge of striking midnight? The Crunch-Time Credit Check is here to rank the contenders from the most bankable as the season hits the home stretch to the least:
⬆ Right on time: Georgia. Like a lot of people, I’ve tended to judge the Dawgs mainly in terms of how they’ve regressed. It’s natural: Compared to Kirby Smart‘s best teams, the ’25 Dawgs have looked downright ordinary, routinely subjecting a fan base accustomed to dominance to slow starts and close calls. Through 7 SEC games, their average scoring margin in conference play was just 9.0 points per game, a steep decline from the championship-or-bust hey day. But with the stakes as high as they’ve been all season, Saturday night’s vintage, 35-10 romp over Texas was a convincing reminder that, by any other standard, Georgia still boasts the league’s highest ceiling and arguably its best chance to go all the way.
The case for a potential CFP run begins and ends with junior QB Gunner Stockton, who is giving off unmistakable Stetson Bennett vibes while making a late surge in the Heisman odds. Stockton was in his bag against the Longhorns, finishing 24-for-29 passing, accounting for all 5 UGA touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing), and turning in a 94.4 Total QBR rating, as the most talented roster in America started to turn the corner from rebuilding mode to bona fide contender. (For this time of year, it’s an unusually healthy roster, too.) Whether that will be enough to get them back to the SEC Championship Game for the 5th year in a row remains TBD, pending the outcomes of Alabama’s trip to Auburn, and Texas A&M’s trip to Texas. Either way, at 9-1 the Bulldogs are back on schedule to climb into the top 4 and claim 1 of the 4 first-round CFP byes that come with the distinction. Any remaining doubts about whether they’re still one of the teams with the potential to take it from there are receding quickly.
⬌ Buckle up: Texas A&M. A conference win is a conference win, and when it’s as unhinged as Texas A&M’s wild, 31-30 comeback against South Carolina, you can’t blame the impulse to yada yada the Aggies’ miserable first half in favor of their triumph in the second. Still, the nagging thing about storming back from a 27-point halftime deficit is that first you have to find yourself facing a 27-point halftime deficit.
That chart doesn’t even begin to do justice to just how dramatic the u-turn was, especially on the part of A&M quarterback Marcel Reed. In the first half, Reed was a basket case, completing just 6-of-19 attempts with a pair of killer interceptions late in the half and a slapstick fumble that was returned for a Carolina touchdown. In fact, he was lucky it was only the 2 picks after serving up a series of tipped balls and pick-able throws that turned his own receivers into defenders. His surging Heisman odds abruptly plummeted in real time. In the second half, Reed was unstoppable, flipping the switch to lead 4 touchdown drives in as many possessions to erase the deficit less than 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. Those drives covered 75, 70, 80 and 98 yards, respectively, on a combined 27 plays. His resurgent Heisman odds were slightly better at the end of the day than they’d been at the start.
All well and good to preserve a perfect record and ensure your head coach gets paid accordingly. But having witnessed their starting quarterback descend rapidly into nuclear-meltdown mode, in the back of their minds Aggies fans had to be left wondering: Can we trust this guy with a championship on the line? Brief as it was — and as quickly as he was redeemed — the version of the team that flirted with full-blown collapse against a 20-point underdog is in there, just as surely as the version that cleaned up its mess.
Statistically, the odds of putting together consecutive halves of football that look that different is almost like flipping a coin that lands on tails 8 or 9 times in a row, then lands on heads 10 times in a row. Fortunately for the Aggies, football is not as random as flipping a coin. Unfortunately, the next series of misadventures against a Playoff-caliber opponent might not be so easily erased.
⬌ Trust but verify: Ole Miss. Last year, Ole Miss beat the 2 best teams on its schedule handily but blew its shot at the Playoff by losing 3 games it was favored to win. This year, the Rebels have left no room for doubt: Saturday’s 34-24 win over Florida secured their 3rd consecutive 10-win season — a first in school history — and moved them within 1 game of sewing up a CFP bid against flat-lining Mississippi State. Stranger things have happened in the Egg Bowl, but for once a good Ole Miss team has not shown any propensity for random flops. Instead, the nagging question as the Rebels shift into postseason mode is their ceiling against elite competition. They ran out of gas in the 4th quarter of their only loss against Georgia, a collapse that’s going to follow them until they prove it’s in no danger of becoming a habit.
⬇ Fool me once …: Alabama. Bama spent 2 months rebuilding the trust it blew in its opening-day loss at Florida State, and then 3 hours against Oklahoma on Saturday watching its efforts unravel. The Crimson Tide fairly dominated the Sooners statistically, racking up big advantages in total yards, first downs and time of possession. They also finished minus-3 in turnover margin, allowed 17 points off those giveaways, and missed a field goal in a game ultimately decided by 2 points.
Look, there is no sugar-coating a Bama loss under any circumstances. As Bama losses go, though, this one was not nearly as catastrophic as, say, last year’s loss to Oklahoma, a random beatdown at the hands of a much worse OU team that unofficially derailed Alabama’s Playoff chances. Unlike that one, this team still has all its larger goals in front of it, including the SEC Championship Game if it finishes off Auburn in the Iron Bowl. But is this team above taking another pipe to the kneecaps in Jordan-Hare Stadium, where Auburn has a long track record of giving the Tide all they can handle? As of Saturday morning, it wasn’t even a question. Now, it’s a must-win for Kalen DeBoer in more ways than one.
⬆ Buyer beware: Oklahoma. Credit where it’s due: Few if any teams in America have it in them to pull off back-to-back road wins at Tennessee and Alabama in consecutive weeks, style points be damned. The Sooners are built to win ugly, and they do, on the strength of the league’s No. 1 scoring defense and arguably the nation’s best kicker. The indispensable Tate Sandell is 18-of-19 on field goal attempts this season (the lone miss coming in OU’s Week 2 win over Michigan), and a perfect 6-for-6 from 50+ yards. Four of those successful bombs have come the past 2 weeks in the wins over the Vols and Tide.
That said, a pedestrian offense leaves little margin for error — not only in a hypothetical Playoff game, but in the process of punching a ticket, which is far from a foregone conclusion with dates against Missouri (in Norman) and LSU (in Baton Rouge) on deck. Two of Oklahoma’s 5 touchdowns against Tennessee and Bama came courtesy of the defense; the offense’s scoring drives in Tuscaloosa covered 23 yards (resulting in a field goal), 31 yards (a touchdown following a muffed punt), 41 yards (another field goal), and 22 yards (yet another field goal following a turnover). The defense’s success the past 2 weeks has been a quintessential bend-don’t-break effort, allowing 400+ yards in both games on a combined 5.6 yards per play. If it ever does break, there’s not much evidence at this point that the offense has the juice against a quality opponent to make up the difference.
⬌ No credit history: Vanderbilt. The Commodores might be on the wrong side of the Playoff bubble (see below), but it they’re also in position to create a serious headache for the CFP committee. Currently 8-2, they still have work to do against Kentucky (at home) and Tennessee (in Knoxville) to force the issue. If they do, though, the prospect of snubbing any 10-win outfit from the SEC — yes, even Vandy — is a nightmare scenario with no ready solution.
As it stands, the ‘Dores came in at No. 14 in last week’s committee rankings ahead of an open date. To make the final cut, they will probably have to climb into the top 10 over the next 2 weeks. Texas’ loss at Georgia helped their cause by dropping the Longhorns in the queue; Oklahoma’s win at Alabama definitely did not. Vanderbilt was counting on the Sooners to fall off the board, and they still could. (Missouri and/or LSU upsets over Oklahoma would be great for Vandy, both by knocking OU down a peg and by bolstering their wins over both sets of Tigers.) But in addition to Oklahoma, the Commodores also need a patchwork of upsets to clear the traffic immediately in front of them. A win at Tennessee in the regular-season finale might be enough to leapfrog the No. 13 team in last week’s rankings, Utah. Beyond that, they’re going to need a lot of help that, right now, they do not seem especially likely to get.
⬇ Burn notice: Texas. There are still people who will try to convince you that Texas, coming off its 3rd and most lopsided loss, has a puncher’s chance at stealing a CFP bid with wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M and some help. Mathematically, that might be true. (See below.) On the field, the Longhorns have shown us who they are from Day 1, and that is a team that has no business anywhere near the Playoff: (item No. 4). In 5 true road games, they failed to win a single one in regulation: Besides losses at Ohio State, Florida (woof) and Georgia, they also narrowly survived upset bids from also-rans Kentucky and Mississippi State in overtime. After Saturday’s wipeout loss in Athens, they’re sitting on a negative scoring differential vs. Power 5 opponents. It’s over, man.
Now, brighter days might be ahead. I’m still bullish on Arch Manning’s long-term potential, even if it takes quite a bit longer than expected. A hypothetical upset over Texas A&M in Austin would go a long way toward resetting the hype cycle in 2026. But given the Aggies’ cushion in the current standings, likely wouldn’t even drop them far enough to qualify as a spoiler.
Dude of the Week: Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy
Mississippi State’s defense came into the weekend struggling against the run, and Hardy proceeded to pound the Bulldogs into submission: 25 carries, 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, no mercy en route to a 49-27 blowout. Hardy powered his way into the top 5 of Mizzou’s single-season rushing list.
Five of Mizzou’s 6 offensive touchdown drives covered 5 plays or less, all of them featuring a run of 20+ yards by Hardy. By the end of the night, the Dogs were so demoralized they couldn’t so much as lay a hand on him. With that, he is back atop the leaderboard as the nation’s leading rusher.
Dud of the Week: Alabama special teams
The kicking game was a killer in Bama’s loss to Oklahoma. Tide allowed a 42-yard punt return that set up an OU field goal; fumbled a punt return that set up an OU touchdown; and missed a field goal at the end of the first half when a Sooner rusher leapt over the line to get a fingertip on the ball, leaving kicker Connor Talty in a cussin’ mood.
CFP Realpolitik
It’s that time of year, when the fog begins to lift and the outlines of the postseason picture begin to come into view. Each week down the home stretch, CFP Realpolitik will size up the pecking order from a strictly practical perspective.
There were a pair notable developments in the pecking order in Week 12. The big one was Oklahoma’s upset over Alabama, vaulting the Sooners into the driver’s seat for an at-large Playoff ticket if they close out the season with wins over Missouri and LSU. The other was Navy’s shootout win over South Florida in the American Athletic Conference, which not only knocked the Bulls out of the pole position for the token Group of 5 slot — USF was the only G5 team ranked last week by the CFP committee, at No. 24 — but almost certainly eliminated them from contention for the AAC title, as well. The new G5 frontrunner: James Madison, runaway favorite to win the Sun Belt. JMU checks in as 1 of 10 teams this week with better than 50% to make the field according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the first time this season a G5 contender has inched into the green. Of course, you can rely on SDS’ Playoff odds as well.
The chalk: Let’s set aside the G5 for a moment. In the power conferences, we’re down to 11 teams that control their fate for the other 11 spots:
• ACC: Georgia Tech, Virginia
• Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
• Big 12: BYU, Texas Tech
• SEC: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
The most conspicuous absence from that list, obviously, is Notre Dame. With Saturday’s blowout win at Pittsburgh, the Fighting Irish all but clenched a 10-2 finish — their last 2 games are gimmes against ACC bottom-dwellers Syracuse and Stanford — and, with it, an at-large ticket for the second year in a row. FPI estimates their odds of making the cut at 61.2%, and frankly that seems conservative.
Still, assuming they take care of their business, there are a couple of conceivable ways the Irish could wind up left in the cold. The more likely scenario involves BYU stealing an auto bid in the Big 12: While there is no route for the Cougars to overtake Notre Dame for an at-large slot, they can still run the table through the Big 12 Championship Game, thereby bumping Big 12 frontrunner Texas Tech to the at-large column instead. If that happens while chalk holds elsewhere, the committee could face a situation where it is forced to choose 3 of the following teams and snub the 4th: Texas Tech (11-2 with a loss in the Big 12 title game), Notre Dame (10-2), Oklahoma (10-2), and the loser of the SEC Championship Game. (For the sake of argument, let’s say that’s Alabama at 10-3, the only scenario in which the SECCG loser might be on the bubble.) The committee signaled loud and clear last year that it is not inclined to punish a team that loses its conference championship game in favor of a team that was sitting at home on the couch. Oklahoma’s win over Bama should ensure that the Crimson Tide are not going to get ushered in while the Sooners get the shaft. That leaves … Notre Dame on the outside looking in.
The other, less likely scenario involves a reconsideration of Notre Dame’s head-to-head loss at Miami in the season-opener. The Hurricanes narrowed the gap between the teams last week, rising from 18th to 15th in the committee rankings while the Irish only improved one spot, from 10th to 9th. It’s likely to narrow again this week as Texas falls back, leaving open the possibility that Miami could creep close enough with wins over Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh to force the committee to take the head-to-head result into account if both teams finish with identical 10-2 records. Personally, I don’t see that happening, and given the Canes’ long-shot odds of making the ACC Championship Game with 2 conference losses, their path is probably closed. But the distance between The U and the Irish is worth keeping an eye on in the updated committee rankings on Tuesday night.
B1G chaos theory: The status quo in the Big Ten is straightforward. Ohio State and Indiana are Playoff locks, so much so that sportsbooks aren’t even offering odds to make the Playoff for either. Oregon is a lock if it wins out, which the Ducks are favored to do. If the next couple of weeks proceed according to plan, the only question mark is whether it will be the Buckeyes or Hoosiers claiming the top overall seed, to be determined in the Big Ten Championship Game.
But there is still a chance for all hell to break loose, courtesy of 2 teams lurking just back of the front-runners in the conference standings with prime upset opportunities over the next couple weeks: USC and Michigan, both of which sit at 8-2 overall and 6-1 in B1G play. First up, the Trojans can throw a serious kink in the proceedings this weekend against Oregon, whose résumé is not likely to hold up with a 2nd loss and no wins over currently ranked opponents. (The Ducks’ overtime triumph at then-No. 3 Penn State in Week 5 counts for very little at this point in the wake of the Nittany Lions’ subsequent collapse.) The Wolverines, of course, will get their shot at extending their 4-game winning streak against Ohio State in Week 14.
If USC wins its last 2 games vs. Oregon and UCLA to finish 10-2, the Trojans will have a claim for the seat at the table currently reserved for the Ducks. In that case, a Michigan upset over the Buckeyes could also send USC to the title game to face Indiana — we’re not even going to contemplate the infinitesimal odds of the Hoosiers losing their finale against last-place Purdue — on the strength of USC’s head-to-head win over Michigan in Week 7. Because of that loss, even with a hypothetical upset over OSU, the Wolverines have virtually no chance of crashing the championship game themselves. (Their only path to Indianapolis via tiebreaker would require an Indiana loss to Purdue, which again, no.) But they can do their part to make the committee’s job vastly more complicated.
Sorting out the Group of 5: I’ve held off breaking down the Group of 5 situation until there was some clarity at the top of the American Athletic. At first glance, there’s still a 4-way tie for first place in the conference standings, and the fact that none of those 4 teams play head-to-head down the stretch doesn’t help. But now that the traffic jam no longer includes USF, there is a light at the end of the tunnel: With the Bulls’ loss at Navy, it’s effectively down to a 2-team race between North Texas and Tulane. The Mean Green and Green Wave are in the driver’s seat to play in the AAC Championship Game, and both should cruise through the remainder of their respective conference slates.
If only it was as simple as reserving the automatic Group of 5 slot for the AAC champion. If it’s North Texas, it might be. At 9-1, UNT has already tied the school record for wins as a D-I program under 3rd-year coach Eric Morris and likely would not face much resistance to its claim as the top G5 team if it ran the table to finish 12-1 in the top G5 league.
If it’s Tulane, the debate is on. The Green Wave have the rep, including a top-10 finish in 2022 that culminated in a dramatic comeback to beat USC in the Cotton Bowl. The résumé is another story. Despite cracking the updated top 25 in the AP and Coaches’ polls, advanced metrics do not like the Wave at all: They rank 57th in FPI and 58th in SP+. Their two losses, a 45-10 beatdown at Ole Miss and a 48-26 flop at UT-San Antonio, were both blowouts. Their best wins, over Duke, East Carolina and Memphis, all came by single digits at home.
There’s a reason that the best odds in the G5 ranks this week belong not to any of the potential contenders in the AAC, but to James Madison. The Dukes (9-1 overall) are far and away the class of the Sun Belt, having already clinched the SBC’s East Division outright while outscoring conference opponents by 24 points per game. Their lone loss, a 28-14 decision at Louisville in Week 2, was a tie game in the 4th quarter. They rank well ahead of Tulane in both FPI (32nd) and SP+ (25th); after USF’s loss, they’re the top-ranked G5 team this week in both the AP and Coaches polls, coming in 1 spot ahead of North Texas in both.
Whether the committee sees it that way, we’ll find out on Tuesday night. JMU’s strength of schedule is marginal even by G5 standards, and it’s not going to get much better over the next few weeks against Washington State, Coastal Carolina, and whoever emerges as the winner of the Sun Belt West. Wherever the Dukes fall in relation to North Texas this week, if both teams run the table to finish 12-1 it will almost certainly be the Mean Green getting the nod in the end, if only by virtue of passing the tougher test on the final Saturday. They don’t have much control over that. Anybody other than UNT on the other side of the debate, though, and they’re going to make it as difficult as they can to be denied.
Yeah, extra demerits to Talty for venting his frustration on the long snapper. He got it there on time and the holder got it down with the laces out. That was Talty’s sixth miss of the season, but the first that mattered.
Notebook
1.) Oklahoma’s pick-6 touchdown off Ty Simpson was Brent Venables doing what he does best: Dialing up an exotic blitz that leaves the opposing blocking scheme grasping at air. Alabama lined up in an empty backfield with a running back motioning across the formation and no backs or receivers in pass protection. Oklahoma showed pre-snap pressure, threatening to send 6 rushers vs. 5 Bama o-linemen. Simpson knows right away there is potentially 1 more rusher than his OL can block, and the ball must come out immediately to a hot receiver.
Instead of bringing all 6 rushers, though, Oklahoma brings just 4: 2 on the right side of the line, 1 on the left, with a blitzing linebacker, Kip Lewis, charging right up the gut. Both the edge defender and linebacker threatening to bring heat on the left side of the line drop into coverage instead. Right away, you can see the confusion this creates in Alabama’s o-line — especially veteran center Parker Brailsford (No. 72), arguably the most reliable member of the front, who is so preoccupied with the slanting nose tackle lined up directly across from him that he ignores Lewis in the A-gap. Meanwhile, neither right guard Wilkin Formby (No. 75) nor right tackle Michael Carroll (No. 64) is in any position to block down without turning loose an oncoming DL.
The result: Alabama’s 3 best linemen — Brailsford, left tackle Kadyn Proctor and left guard Kam Dewberry — all effectively blocking ghosts while Lewis takes advantage of a free run right up the hash marks into the quarterback’s teeth. Simpson, panicking, releases the ball just as Lewis arrives into what he hopes is an open throwing lane left vacated by the blitzing linebacker …
…but is in fact patrolled by a safety, Eli Bowen, who easily steps in front of an off-target throw and takes it the other way for the biggest play to date of the Sooners’ season. Whatever else Venables brings to the table as a head coach, as a defensive coordinator he’s still worth every penny.
2.) Georgia’s surprise onside kick in the 4th quarter against Texas didn’t change the trajectory of the game so much as it put it on ice. The advanced box score courtesy of gameonpaper.com doesn’t even list the onside kick among the biggest swing plays in terms of EPA or win percentage. But it was certainly a demoralizer in real time, turning a close game into a laugher in short order. Just a few minutes prior to the kick, the Longhorns had capitalized on their lone takeaway of the game to cut Georgia’s lead to 14-10 at the end of the 3rd quarter. By the time Arch Manning touched the ball again, the ‘Horns trailed 28-10 midway through the 4th and stood no chance of closing the gap.
3.) Manning was reduced to deer-in-the-headlights mode by Georgia’s pass rush, but his supporting cast did him no favors. The ground game was nonexistent, and PFF cited Texas receivers for 5 dropped passes. Two were by Manning’s favorite target, Ryan Wingo, 1 of which brought the Longhorns’ opening possession to an end on what should have been a routine grab that moved the sticks. The ‘Horns were forced to settle for a field goal instead, and didn’t touch the ball again with a lead. That seems like a fair summation of where Wingo’s game stands at the end of his sophomore campaign: Electric with the ball in his hands, but very inconsistent when it comes to hanging on to it in the first place.
4.) South Carolina’s offense played its best game of the season against Texas A&M, finishing with season-highs for total offense (388) and yards per play (6.1) vs. any opponent. Still, given one last chance to respond to A&M’s frantic 2nd-half comeback, the Gamecocks’ beleaguered o-line ensured LaNorris Sellers didn’t stand a chance.
The story of Sellers’ sophomore campaign, in 3 plays. After the game, Shane Beamer described rampant online speculation about his quarterback’s imminent departure at the end of the season as “horse garbage.” After enduring a historic collapse against the No. 3 team in the country to fall to 1-7 in conference play, whether Beamer will still be in any position to influence Sellers’ decision when the time comes is TBD.
5.) There was nothing notable about Arkansas’ 23-22 loss at LSU, the Razorbacks’ 8th straight defeat this season and 9th straight in SEC play dating back to last year. The consistently narrow margins in those defeats, however, are remarkable. That was the Hogs’ 7th loss by single digits this season, and the 4th in which they’ve led in the 4th quarter. Their 6 conference losses have come by a grand total of 25 points — 18 points less than their only blowout loss, a 56-13 disaster against Notre Dame.
Moment of Zen of the Week
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
