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Analytics have become a huge part of college football, especially when it pertains to going for it on 4th down.
In recent years, coaches have opted to go for it on 4th down over punting a lot more, and it has everything to do with analytics telling them what the better choice is at the time.
But Nick Saban has different thoughts on it. The seasoned veteran has seen enough in his day to know that if you don’t convert on 4th down, it could lead to much worse than what a punt would have led to.
“What the analytics really don’t tell you is what happens when you don’t make it,” Saban said on the Pat McAfee Show Thursday. “Those consequences are pretty significant sometimes too, especially when you don’t take field position into account.”
Saban compared turning it over on downs to being the same as fumbling or throwing an interception, which statistically lead to 3.5 points on average. For that reason, he opts to trust himself and his coaching staff to make the decision.
He also believes that is depends on who the personnel is. If you have a consistent running back on 4th and short, you likely have a better chance of converting than if you didn’t.
“It depends on your cats too,” Saban said. “The analytics don’t say what cat’s doing it.”
