We made it to the end. Sort of.
Week 13 is here. The penultimate week of the regular season is here. Some call it “Cupcake Week.” I, however, call it “Cake Week” because everyone likes cake more than cupcakes, and in theory, everyone should like their Week 13 matchups more than any other this season.
Get ready for the screenshot tweets on Saturday, which read, “Glad to see the SEC really challenged itself this week.” Those are coming. Don’t watch out for those.
Instead, watch out for these Cake Week things:
No. 9 Ole Miss vs. Florida — What a full-circle game for Lane Kiffin
Four years ago, Kiffin’s Ole Miss debut came against Florida. He had a completely overwhelmed defense by New York-bound Kyle Trask, who led the Gators to 51 points and 642 yards of offense. That was the first of 3 instances in which Kiffin’s squad scored 35 points and lost that season. From 2020-22, Kiffin lost 10 games in which his team hit 21 points. In the last 2 seasons with Pete Golding as his defensive coordinator, Ole Miss is 18-1 when it hits 21 points, and the lone loss was when it held LSU to 1 touchdown in the first 59 minutes in Death Valley at night. Full circle? You bet.
Oh, and there was also the preseason assumption Billy Napier would be fired by the time this matchup rolled around and that Kiffin could replace him. Instead, Napier is trying to knock off a second consecutive AP Top 25 foe for the first time. If he could do that, he’d clinch a bowl berth and have the most momentum he’s had in Gainesville. So yeah, I suppose it’s full circle for both coaches.
UMass vs. No. 8 Georgia — Gunner Stockton needs live reps
I say that because while everyone is locked into what Carson Beck is doing this year, there’s a decent chance that Stockton will be considered the heir apparent for UGA’s QB1 next year. The sample size is still extremely small. He’s only got 31 career pass attempts, 12 of which came in his lone appearance this year. That was against FCS Tennessee Tech back in September. In other words, Stockton hasn’t faced FBS competition since the Orange Bowl against a Florida State team that looked more like the 1-win squad it became rather than the 13-0 squad it was.
Stockton’s lack of reps could be partially attributed to Georgia struggling to play complete games in favorable matchups. Against a UMass team that couldn’t stay on the field with Mizzou or Mississippi State, one would think that this is as favorable as it gets for Stockton to get some early work.
UTEP vs. No. 10 Tennessee — It’d be nice to give Dylan Sampson an early break
Don’t get it twisted. I love Sampson and would be happy for him if he could break Derrick Henry’s single-season SEC rushing touchdowns record (28). Against a 2-win UTEP squad that allows 171 rushing yards/game, Sampson probably could score 8 touchdowns by day’s end. But for a 205-pound back who has averaged 22 carries/game, it’d be advantageous to perhaps get him a couple of early scores and let him spend the second half saving his body for a potential Playoff run. Any world in which Tennessee makes noise in December involves Sampson being at full strength.
The last time that Sampson played fewer than 49 snaps in a game was back in Week 3. That was also the last time he had fewer than 22 scrimmage touches in a game. Josh Heupel would be wise to put the SEC records on hold and give his workhorse back a lighter workload.
Kentucky vs. No. 3 Texas — Why a win here could clinch a Texas Playoff berth
I continue to say that while Texas lacks quality wins, the selection committee’s ranking suggests that there’s another loss to give. At No. 3 — a ranking that likely won’t change after grinding out a win at Arkansas — Texas can get that all-important 10th win by taking care of business against a 4-win Kentucky squad. If that happens, the Longhorns will likely be No. 3 or No. 4 at worst heading into the Texas A&M game. Even if Texas loses at A&M — a thought that no Longhorn fan wants to consider — it feels like the selection committee already told us that 10-2 would be enough.
We could likely see a 10-win SEC squad get left out of the Playoff picture. But the highest-ranked SEC team who loses at A&M doesn’t fit the description.
Wofford vs. No. 19 South Carolina — Make Saturday another big step for Nyck Harbor, Dowell Loggains
It took a year and a half, but the 2-time winner of Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks” list is starting to look like the player that South Carolina hoped he’d be. A week after he had 3 catches for 43 yards at Vandy, Harbor had a career-high 69 receiving yards in Saturday’s win against Mizzou, including a 26-yard touchdown grab that got the scoring started. In the 3 games since the bye week, here’s Harbor’s snap count:
- vs. A&M: 73 snaps
- at Vandy: 50 snaps
- vs. Mizzou: 60 snaps
Before that stretch, Harbor hadn’t played 50 snaps in a game this season. Is it a coincidence that LaNorris Sellers’ emergence coincided with Harbor having more of a regular presence? Probably not. Even though Harbor isn’t in a high-volume role, his world-class speed certainly paid dividends in opening things up underneath for tight end Josh Simon, who has 4 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks alone (that’s as many as any other SEC tight end has all season). Harbor can continue to build confidence with a high-volume game in a favorable FCS matchup … as long as Loggains continues to dial up looks for him.
Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas — A bowl berth is still worth celebrating
Is that an unpopular thing to say in the 12-team Playoff era? Yeah, but let’s be honest. A 4-win Arkansas team wasn’t about to navigate a brutal schedule and have that kind of year-to-year improvement. What’s still on the table for Arkansas is a 7-5 regular season and potentially an 8th win in the postseason. That would be doubling up on last year’s win total with the possibility of building around the Taylen Green-Bobby Petrino offense next year (I’m sort of assuming Travis Williams is about to get a head-coaching gig).
That might sound like putting lipstick on a pig/hog, but it’s important context heading into Louisiana Tech. There’s still a world in which Arkansas can end the season on a 3-game winning streak and feel confident in next year’s foundation. That can begin by bouncing back in a favorable matchup on Saturday.
Mizzou vs. Mississippi State — Is Mizzou still fighting for a 10-win season?
Let me explain. I know that Mizzou can still win 10 games this year (including a bowl game). I don’t question that, especially with 2 games likely as a favorite to close the regular season. But I do question what this team’s mental makeup will be after suffering loss No. 3 and ending even the wildest of Playoff hopes that Eli Drinkwitz held onto. I applaud the fight we saw from Mizzou to claw back from late deficits 3 different times in the last month. Brady Cook’s 4th down throw to Luther Burden III to take the lead against South Carolina was the highlight of the season. It just wasn’t rewarded with a defensive stand.
But I question how this team will travel and show up, knowing that the preseason goals are off the table. It’s been a frustrating year. Most Mizzou frustrating years don’t have the possibility of ending in 10 wins, but then again, most years don’t start as the preseason No. 11 team in America. Against a Mississippi State team that’s been friskier than what the record would indicate, this will test Mizzou’s mental makeup in a unique way.
No. 7 Alabama vs. Oklahoma — The Alabama defense looks like it turned the corner
In the last 5 games, Alabama allowed an average of 13.4 points per game and nobody scored more than 24 points (I subtracted the 2 points lost from the safety against South Carolina). Just for a little perspective, only 5 FBS teams have a season-long scoring defense better than 13.4 points/game allowed. That’s significant because that’s what Alabama’s defense did after getting humiliated by Diego Pavia and Vandy. Including the second half against Georgia, that 6-quarter stretch had everyone wondering if Alabama’s defense was about to endure a tailspin.
Instead, the Tide have forced at least 3 turnovers in every game during that stretch and are now No. 3 in FBS in takeaways. Against a potentially overmatched Oklahoma offensive line, that’s a favorable trend. Jackson Arnold’s ball security issues have been a hindrance for the OU offense all year. Running into an emerging defense that feasts on those takeaways could turn Saturday into an ugly showing for the home team.
No. 15 Texas A&M vs. Auburn — This is quietly the most important SEC game of the week
Why? Is it the fact that the spread is less than a field goal? That’s part of it. In addition to A&M still needing to win to keep a direct path to both the SEC Championship AND the Playoff — 2 places that the Aggies have never been to — think about what this means for Auburn. It’s been one of the worst home slates in program history. Now, a top-15 team is coming into Jordan-Hare and Auburn needs to pull off an upset to keep its bowl hopes alive heading into the Iron Bowl.
Also, Auburn is still searching for its first win vs. a Power 5 team that finishes with a winning record since it beat Ole Miss in Oct. 2021 (beating Kentucky this year won’t end that drought unless UK wins out). This is a chance for Hugh Freeze to pick up what would be his biggest win at Auburn, and he could close the home slate in a wildly different fashion than what the majority of the season has been.
Vanderbilt vs. LSU — LSU already hit rock bottom … right?
Losing 3 in a row and watching the Florida winning streak end to close out any last-ditch SEC Championship hopes was brutal. But losing to Vandy in Death Valley at night would be a new low for a few reasons. I mean that as no disrespect to Diego Pavia and the Dores, who clinched bowl eligibility earlier than they ever have. But Death Valley at night was still supposed to be a cheat code for LSU. If those issues defending the quarterback run aren’t fixed — LSU didn’t get to see if it improved there because DJ Lagway wore an apparatus on his left leg that prevented him from even attempting to run — Pavia and Co. can absolutely drop the Tigers to a new low.
Brian Kelly talked after the Florida loss about how he’s now just playing guys that are bought in and he’s not worried about pedigree. Attitude is everything with LSU at this point. If the Tigers show up with the wrong one, there’s not enough mojo in Death Valley that can help them avoid more embarrassment. Plus, those jabs that LSU fans threw at Alabama for losing in Nashville would come back harder than ever if Saturday is anything but a bounce-back win.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
