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O’Gara: It’s wild to think how much Clemson-Georgia has changed in 3 years
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I kicked off 2021 with my first of many incorrect predictions.
In my defense, calling for Clemson to beat Georgia in the opener that season wasn’t a hot take. It was a perfectly realistic take that Dabo Swinney’s program would win in Charlotte, which became Clemson’s home away from home for winning conference titles, much like how Atlanta became Alabama’s home away from home for winning conference titles.
At the time, the Tigers were riding a streak of 6 consecutive Playoff berths, 4 of which included trips to the College Football Playoff National Championship. Georgia, on the other hand, had 1 Playoff berth to speak of. Most recently to that point, it failed to win the SEC East for the first time in 4 years, and it was in search of its first win vs. an AP top-5 team since the double-overtime win against Oklahoma in the 2017 Rose Bowl.
So, using that logic, I laid out the case for why Clemson would kick off 2021 with a win against UGA in my Georgia 2021 Crystal Ball:
I worry about (JT) Daniels not totally being on the same page as his receivers against a Brent Venables defense that’s sure to speed things up without necessarily needing to send extra help. Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy can wreak all sorts of havoc on that Clemson defensive line, which should be reminiscent of that 2018 squad. This doesn’t end up being a coming-out party for Georgia’s offense. Instead, DJ Uiagalelei steals the show and Justyn Ross has a “return to the national stage” game in a star-studded opener. Georgia’s national title buzz simmers down a bit.
Hey, give me a touch of credit for predicting that Daniels and the UGA offense would struggle. After all, the only touchdown scored that night in Charlotte came via a Christopher Smith pick-6 … in which my predicted hero Ross got the blame for running a slant instead of, as Swinney put it, “sitting down or turning out.”
But yeah, Uiagalelei didn’t in fact “steal the show,” and UGA’s national title buzz did anything but “simmer down” after the 10-3 victory. I actually did a video that outlined why the Dawgs’ defensive showing could be the preamble for a national title run.
Hey, I got 1 thing right!
Three years later, I can’t help but think how those programs have gone in opposite directions. They’ll open the season against each other Saturday in Atlanta, though with UGA favored to win by 2 touchdowns as the preseason national championship favorite, it’s safe to say that it’s a much different vibe than 2021. A Clemson win would send shockwaves through the sport while a Georgia win would … probably not even get a mention on “Get Up.”
How? And why?
You could point to a few things, most of which are well-documented. Swinney’s refusal to use the transfer portal undoubtedly hurt Clemson in areas where it hasn’t developed talent like the did in the 2010s, most notably at receiver. Kirby Smart started off being closer to Swinney than Lane Kiffin on the portal scale. But after having between 1-4 transfers in the first 3 cycles of the NIL era, Smart signed 11 transfers in the 2024 cycle.
In the first year without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, look at UGA’s pass-catchers and where they came from:
- WR Dominic Lovett, transfer (Mizzou)
- WR London Humphreys, transfer (Vanderbilt)
- WR Colbie Young, transfer (Miami)
- WR Dillon Bell, HS recruit
- WR Arian Smith, HS recruit
- WR Michael Jackson III, transfer (USC)
- TE Oscar Delp, HS recruit
- TE Ben Yurosek, transfer (Stanford)
That’s not including former Mississippi State transfer Rara Thomas, who was expected to have a big role on the 2024 squad but was kicked off the team after he was arrested on multiple family violence charges. That’s also not including versatile running back Trevor Etienne, who transferred from Florida but could be suspended in the opener after his DUI arrest in March. (Smart hasn’t said.)
Related: Looking to place a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Speaking of Etienne, that 2021 opener was Clemson’s first game without Trevor’s older brother, Travis Etienne, AKA the ACC’s all-time leader in rushing, rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns. Perhaps we should’ve seen some cracks in Clemson’s foundation during his final season in 2020. That year, the Tigers made it to the Playoff, but they ranked No. 75 in FBS in rushing. They’ve yet to crack the top 40 in rushing yards/game or the top 50 in yards/carry during the 2020s.
Really, the Clemson offense has fallen off a cliff in terms of production and development. In the past 3 Drafts, Clemson hasn’t had an offensive player selected during the first 2 days, and the lone offensive lineman selected in that stretch was 5th-round guard Jordan McFadden in 2023. Swinney turned to former Georgia offensive line coach Matt Luke to find answers in that area. Luke helped fill the void on UGA’s offensive line after Sam Pittman became head coach at Arkansas.
But with all due respect to Luke, the Clemson-Georgia script isn’t about to flip because of 1 assistant hire, though Clemson would surely have a better chance at that if Garrett Riley looked more like the 2022 Broyles Award winner instead of … whatever last year was. Riley was brought in to fix Clemson’s offense and maximize Cade Klubnik in his first season as the Tigers’ starter. Instead, this happened:
- No. 52 in FBS in scoring offense
- No. 56 in FBS in 3rd-down conversion percentage
- No. 65 in FBS in yards/carry
- No. 81 in FBS in sacks/game allowed
- No. 98 in FBS in yards/play
- No. 98 in FBS in 20-yard scrimmage plays
- No. 111 in FBS in yards/pass attempt
- No. 121 in FBS in red-zone scoring percentage
That’s why unlike 3 years ago when the idea of Uiagalelei finding at least some success against Georgia seemed possible, Klubnik leading a prolific Clemson offense against UGA on Saturday would be a significant development. After all, we’re talking about a UGA defense that surrendered 28 points on 3 occasions during that 3-year run of nothing but top-5 scoring defenses.
In that 3-year run, Smart morphed into what UGA fans hoped he’d become. He adapted his offense with the Todd Monken OC hire, he tweaked his transfer portal approach and even when he was criticized for playing Stetson Bennett IV after Daniels returned from injury in 2021, Smart finally showed that he could push all the right quarterback buttons.
Swinney, on the other hand, morphed into what his skeptics feared he’d become. In an adapt-or-die world, it’s not hard to decipher which camp he’s in. Some might put him in the same tier as Smart because they both have 2 rings, but 6 years removed from his last title, Swinney is just trying to get back to posting a winning ACC record while Smart is trying to “avenge” a 1-loss season.
Maybe we should’ve seen the tides changing when the Dawgs walked off the field with a statement win against an overwhelmed Clemson offense. At the same time, nobody could’ve predicted in 2021 that in the next 3 seasons, UGA would win more national titles (2) than Clemson would win ACC titles (1). To that point, the Tigers had earned 6 consecutive ACC crowns while the Dawgs had failed to win it all in each of the previous 40 seasons.
That night in Charlotte, Swinney stood by his team. “‘I’m not going to write the season off because we lost 10-3 to a top-5 team,” he said (H/T CBS Sports). Fair. If Swinney had come out and said “I don’t think we’ll make the Playoff in the next 3 years and we’ll get smashed in our lone New Year’s 6 bowl appearance against a Joe Milton-led Tennessee,” it would’ve been the shock of the century. Swinney predicting that would’ve been more surprising than that actually happening.
What neither Swinney nor anyone else can deny is that Clemson and Georgia are in much different places now compared to 3 years ago. It wasn’t the result of Ross making the wrong decision on that route, but it’s hard not to think about how pivotal that night in Charlotte was. The crystal ball would’ve told a wild tale.
The only thing wilder would be a vision of another tide-shifting Clemson-Georgia showdown.
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Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
