Ole Miss vs. Miami preview: Odds, picks, predictions for the Fiesta Bowl
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Pete Golding will lead Ole Miss against Miami in the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night with a spot in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on the line.
It’s expected to be a close game between the Rebels and Hurricanes, who both pulled off big upsets in order to get to this point. Let’s dive in to some analysis and picks for the Fiesta Bowl.
Ole Miss vs. Miami odds
Here’s a live look at the odds board for this matchup via the best sports betting apps:
Here’s some news and notes on both teams:
Ole Miss football news
- Ole Miss pulled off a stunning upset of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl last week to advance to this game.
- There’s still some uncertainty about who from Ole Miss’s staff will remain with the Rebels for this game and who will move on early to head to Baton Rouge to work for Lane Kiffin at LSU.
- However, offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is expected to remain in Oxford for the duration of this Ole Miss Playoff run. Weis has done very well without Kiffin. Ole Miss averaged 7.3 yards per play against Tulane and 6.5 yards per play vs. Georgia.
- Trinidad Chambliss played perhaps the best game of his career against Georgia. He was unstoppable outside of the pocket and finished with 362 yards and 2 touchdowns on 46 passes.
- Defensively, Ole Miss’s biggest weakness remains stopping the run. The Rebels are outside of the top-130 nationally in rush defense success rate, per Game on Paper. That showed up against vs. Georgia (Nate Frazier averaged 5.7 yards per carry)
- The Ole Miss secondary has been very good this season and limited Gunner Stockton to just 203 yards on 31 attempts last time out.
Miami football notes
- Miami pulled off back-to-back upsets over Texas A&M and Ohio State in order to reach this semifinal.
- The Hurricanes’ success has largely been powered by their defense. Led by safety Keionte Scott, Miami has held opponents to just 7 yards per pass and 2.3 yards per rush during the College Football Playoff.
- Miami’s defensive line has also been exceptional. Rueben Bain is Miami’s biggest threat off the edge — he’s recorded 4 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss through 2 CFP games. Akheem Mesidor has been disruptive as well off the other edge. Bain and Mesidor have combined for 33 pressures through 2 CFP games.
- Offensively, Miami has been a bit of a mixed bag. Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. was the star against Texas A&M with 172 rushing yards. He tacked on 90 more against Ohio State. He’s playing the best football of his career right now.
- In the passing game, Miami’s game plan revolved around slot receiver Malachi Toney all season long. But Toney, a true freshman, has been almost completely neutralized in the CFP. He has 10 catches for 38 yards and 1 (game-winning) touchdown across both contests.
Fiesta Bowl predictions
I like the under in this game. I have some questions about both offenses. For Miami, will the Canes be able to move the ball through the air at all? Carson Beck’s efficiency has been dreadful during this CFP run and it doesn’t seem like the Canes trust him to make difficult reads. As for Ole Miss, Trinidad Chambliss did his best Kyler Murray impression in the second half against Georgia, but I think Miami’s defensive front will be more equipped to punish him for any freelancing. I also suspect we could see Ole Miss’s offense take at least a marginal step back given the coaching staff uncertainty the Rebels have faced over the last week.
Pick: Under 52.5 points (-115 on BetMGM)
There’s an interesting “most rushing yards” prop from DraftKings for this game. I like Fletcher to lead all players in that category. Not only because he’s clearly got the hot hand, but because Ole Miss’s defense has simply not stopped the run this season. Even in the CFP, the Rebels let Nate Frazier go for 86 yards on 15 carries. I think Fletcher will get upwards of 20 rushes in this game and I suspect he’ll gain yardage at an efficient clip. Kewan Lacy is an interesting challenger, but I’m expecting Ole Miss to have a pass-heavy game plan. Chambliss threw 46 times (compared to 22 Lacy rushes) in the win over UGA.
Pick: Mark Fletcher to have the most rushing yards (-105 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
