Ole Miss is ranked No. 19 in the country and has one of the nation’s most explosive offenses. The Rebels are a 10-point dog at home for Saturday’s showdown against No. 1 Alabama.
That’s how highly Vegas thinks of Alabama and looking per position, it’s pretty easy to see why.
WHEN OLE MISS HAS THE BALL
Chad Kelly vs. Alabama pass defense: The Rebels’ quarterback has thrown for 532 yards on 41-of-66 attempts and has 7 touchdowns and 3 picks.
Eleven players have caught passes, tight end Evan Engram with 11 catches for 164 yards. Kelly has completed better than 62 percent of his throws but does like to take chances.
He’ll have to take chances for the Rebels to beat Bama a third straight time, but Alabama has three interceptions in two games, one pick-six from Marlon Humphrey and another from Eddie Jackson.
Kelly is the first real quarterback test for the Tide, who are allowing only 173 passing yards per game. Holding Kelly under that would be surprising.
EDGE: Ole Miss
What’s left of Ole Miss running backs vs. Alabama run defense: Alabama is allowing 43.5 yards per game. That’s tops in the SEC and third in the nation. Without Jordan Wilkins and Eric Swinney, Ole Miss is down to Akeem Judd and hoping Eugene Brazley will develop into the role. The Rebels are again reeling in the run game, ranked 12th in the conference at 120.5 yards per game.
Alabama is allowing a minuscule 1.67 yards per carry. That’s not a good combo for Ole Miss’ situation.
EDGE: Alabama
Ole Miss receivers vs. Alabama secondary: Five of the seven Ole Miss receivers with at least three catches are averaging better than a first down per catch. The exceptions are Van Jefferson and DaMarkus Lodge, who are at 9.0 and 9.7 yards per catch. Alabama is giving up just 4.6 yards per pass attempt and allowing opponents to complete less than 50 percent, and the Rebels lost freshman D.K. Metcalf after back-to-back weeks of highlight-reel touchdown catches.
Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick has a team-high 11 tackles and 3 pass breakups. He and Humphrey both have a forced fumble. How they focus on Engram will be fun to watch.
EDGE: Push
WHEN ALABAMA HAS THE BALL
Jalen Hurts vs. Ole Miss pass defense: Ole Miss is right back where it was last season, among the worst in the league in many pass defense categories. The Rebels are next to last in opponent passer rating (140.7), completion percentage (62.3) and yards per attempt (8.0). Chalk a lot of that up to losing top cover guy Ken Webster for the season. Hurts will take advantage. Alabama is fourth in the SEC with 287 passing yards per game, and Hurts has 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception in his first two career appearances. Ole Miss has already allowed 12 plays of 15 yards or better and five passing plays of at least 25 yards.
EDGE: Alabama
Alabama running backs vs. Ole Miss run defense: Only Kentucky has been rushed against more than Ole Miss. Only South Carolina and Kentucky allow more yards per game than the Rebels’ 197. Alabama is averaging 183 yards per game led by Damien Harris’ 91.5 yards per game. Of the top three non-quarterback runners, the only negative run was a 2-yard loss for Harris. B.J. Emmons and Bo Scarbrough haven’t been tackled behind the line.
EDGE: Alabama
Alabama receivers vs. Ole Miss secondary: Ole Miss has handed Alabama two of its last three losses. In those two, the Crimson Tide has had trouble going vertical – 5.7 yards per pass attempt, three touchdowns and four picks. That said, Ole Miss’ secondary is depleted and someone is going to have to cover ArDarius Stewart, who is averaging nearly 102 yards per game, and 6-foot-6 TE O.J. Howard. If Hurts can make the long throws, Ole Miss won’t be in good shape. Alabama has eight plays this season of 25 yards or more, tied for the most in the SEC.
EDGE: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
This game could very well be determined by a special teams play. After only two games, a lot is pretty equal. The teams have a combined four field goal attempts, and their return games are pretty even thus far. Ole Miss leads the SEC in punt return yardage allowed, minus-5 yards, but opponents have returned only one punt.
Field position will be key, and Alabama punter JK Scott is averaging 46.7 yards per punt, second in the SEC, and has five punts of at least 50 yards. Carlos Davis is Ole Miss’ go-to on kick returns, averaging 27 yards per. Trevon Diggs has returned four kickoffs with a 22-yard average for Alabama.
EDGE: Push
