Ole Miss and Florida State both know pretty much who is going to play where this season. How much time and who plays first in some spots could be determined by this top 11 matchup on Labor Day to open the season.
No. 11 Ole Miss has one of the country’s most potent offenses, and No. 4 Florida State has one of the fiercest defenses. Something has to give.
WHEN OLE MISS HAS THE BALL
Chad Kelly vs. Florida State pass defense: Florida State ranked fifth in the ACC last season against the pass, allowing only 192 yards per game. That said, there are a lot of moving parts in that secondary, a group that lost its best player, Jalen Ramsey. But 6-foot-3 sophomore Derwin James had 4.5 sacks as a freshman and was second on the team in tackles.
Meanwhile, Kelly’s new offensive line will have its hands full with defensive end DeMarcus Walker (10.5 sacks, 15.5 TFLs, 6 PDs). Avoiding his pressure could open some holes for new slot receiver Van Jefferson, and with time, maybe some deep ones against a secondary replacing its best pass defender. But replacing Ramsey is 6-foot-2 corner Tarvarus McFadden.
Kelly doesn’t need much time, and until he shows otherwise, he’s hard to pick against. And his receivers are pretty good, too, even against the tall secondary.
EDGE: Ole Miss
Ole Miss RBs vs. Florida State run defense: For similar aforementioned reasons, Akeem Judd and redshirt freshman Eric Swinney have their hands full. Ole Miss’ offensive line looks more than capable against Florida State’s pressure front, but throw in Mike linebacker Ro’Derrick Hoskins, another 6-foot-2 stud with 6.5 tackles for loss last year, and it is no doubt one of the best defenses Ole Miss should face all season.
Seminoles are proven. Ole Miss can prove a lot with a strong running debut.
EDGE: Florida State
Ole Miss WRs vs. Derwin James: It is refreshing to see corners listed at 6-foot-1 and taller, and Florida State has that type of length in its defensive backs. James proved his five-star recruiting status last season. When he wasn’t in the backfield, he had 5 pass breakups and 5 deflections. On the other hand, the Rebels don’t have small receivers, and 6-foot-3 senior Quincy Adeboyejo can really prove this is his corps with a solid showing against James.
The Rebels have an advantage simply based on experience from Adeboyejo and Damore’ea Stringfellow. Young receivers Van Jefferson, DaMarkus Lodge, DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown are starting out with tough assignments.
EDGE: Ole Miss
WHEN OLE MISS IS ON DEFENSE
Deondre Francois vs. Ole Miss pass defense: If Ole Miss’ front isn’t careful, this could become Francois’ run game vs. the Rebels’ secondary. The key to Ole Miss’ rush is junior defensive end Marquis Haynes, coming off a 10-sack, 16.5-TFL season. If senior Fadol Brown is a go at the other end, even if Francois looks like the second coming of Jameis Winston, Ole Miss should be able to contain the edges.
With plenty of talent up front, it is reasonable to think Francois is going to make some mistakes in his first collegiate start. Ole Miss’ defense can take advantage.
EDGE: Ole Miss
Dalvin Cook vs. Ole Miss run defense: Ole Miss MLB DeMarquis Gates led the team in tackles last season as a sophomore. Gates and transfer linebackers Rommel Mageo and Detric Bing-Dukes are going to play vital roles in keeping Heisman candidate Cook out of the secondary. Tackles Breeland Speaks and D.J. Jones should be able to hold their own, but Cook will get through the line for his share of yardage.
Cook may be the best back the Rebels will face, and that includes Leonard Fournette. Fine, Fournette is probably the best, but Cook is right there with speed and toughness. Holding him under 100 would be a big win.
EDGE: Florida State
Florida State WRs vs. Ole Miss DBs: Avoiding Tony Conner would be wise for Francois throwing the ball. Pending Francois’ comfort level, Florida State should test true freshmen Rovers Myles Hartsfield and Deontay Anderson, as well as sophomore free safety Zedrick Woods. The Seminoles return their top three receivers, four if you count Cook. Connor, fellow senior corner Tony Bridges and junior Kendarius Webster have their hands full with Travis Rudolph (59 catches, 916 yards, 7 touchdowns).
Look for the young Rebels in the secondary to be tested early. All Francois has to do is get it close to Rudolph, Jesus Wilson and Kermit Whitfield.
EDGE: Florida State
Special teams
Ole Miss was last in the SEC in punt returns and next to last in kick returns, no touchdowns either way. Florida State was next to last in punt returns in the ACC but fourth in kick returns, averaging nearly 25 yards per. Most of that belonged to Whitfield.
For 3-pointers, Florida State is running with freshman Ricky Aguayo, and Ole Miss has a good foot returning in Gary Wunderlich (19-for-25 FGs and 63-for-63 PATs).
A field goal could make the difference.
EDGE: Ole Miss
