It’s time to go looking for some underdogs to back in Week 6.
Last week, we went 2-3 as Rice and Utah State beat the number for us but Washington, Arizona and Middle Tennessee all came up short. Arizona was clearly a bad bet — the outcome of that one was never in doubt. The other 2 bets I would make again. Middle Tennessee came up short by a half point due to a missed 2-point conversion in the fourth quarter. Washington lost handily against Ohio State, but I think that game was closer than the final score indicates.
Underdog picks for Week 6
As always, none of the picks from my weekly money line underdogs piece will be duplicated here. With that being said, let’s break down 5 upset predictions for Week 6:
Boise State over Notre Dame
Why is Boise getting almost 3 touchdowns against Notre Dame? Despite the Irish’s dominant performance in Fayetteville last week, I think there are still very real concerns about Notre Dame’s defense. Arkansas clearly quit sometime in the second quarter of that game, leading to the lopsided final score. This game on Saturday is Boise’s ticket back to relevancy. It’s a must-win for the Broncos if they want to make the Playoff. I don’t think they’ll win outright but they have a great offense and a solid defense. I’m happy to sell Notre Dame coming off of a weird game at Arkansas last weekend.
Pick: Boise State +20.5 (-110 on bet365)
Kentucky over Georgia
Everyone seems to have this circled as a bad spot for Kentucky given that Georgia lost a tough game to Alabama last week. I don’t necessarily agree. For one thing, history doesn’t support the narrative that teams are eager to blow out their opponent as a massive favorite coming off of a loss. Since 2018, favorites of 17 or more in a home conference game coming off of a loss cover just 43% of the time. Georgia also historically has underperformed against Mark Stoops. The Wildcats have beaten the number of 5 of their last 6 games in this series. If you need one more angle — Georgia has Auburn on the road next weekend in a rivalry game, making this a lookahead spot for the Bulldogs.
Pick: Kentucky +20.5 (-105 on Fanatics)
Air Force over Navy
I’m not going to sugarcoat this: Air Force has the worst defense in the country. Full stop. Not Charlotte, not Kent State, not Louisiana-Monroe. It’s Air Force. It’s dead last in passing success rate defense. It’s 125th in EPA-per-rush allowed. It doesn’t get any more bleak than that. And yet, I’m taking the Falcons and the points because the offense is pretty good. It might even be elite for a service academy offense. The Falcons are 7th in EPA-per-play on offense per Game on Paper. Factoring in strength-of-schedule bumps them up to 3rd. With a double-digit point spread, I think the likelihood that Air Force hangs around in this game is pretty high. And even if Navy is up 3 scores late, with an offense like Air Force’s, a backdoor touchdown is certainly possible.
Pick: Air Force +12.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
FIU over UConn
FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins seems to have regressed a bit as a passer this season, but I still like the Panthers in this spot. Jenkins is mobile, as he showed with a 61-yard day against FAU a few weeks ago. UConn has given up 45+ rushing yards (adjusted for sacks) to quarterbacks twice already this season. I think FIU will be able to move the ball well enough on this UConn defense to keep this game close. I’ll take the points.
Pick: FIU +7.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
UCLA over Penn State
That trend I mentioned for the UGA-Kentucky game almost applies here, too, with Penn State needing a quick response after losing to Oregon last week (the difference is Penn State will be on the road for this contest while Georgia is hosting UK). UCLA played a bit better last week in a close loss to Northwestern in its first game since firing DeShaun Foster. This week, UCLA is making a change at offensive coordinator — perhaps that will solve some issues as well. Even if the Bruins don’t play that well, they could still cover a spread this large. I don’t expect Penn State to play its sharpest game considering last week’s heartbreak coupled with a long trip across the country.
Pick: UCLA +26 (-122 on BetRivers)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
