The end of the 2025 college football season is near.
It’s time for Week 13, which means Thanksgiving and numerous rivalry games are right around the corner. As always, this story will seek to predict 5 underdogs who will win outright this weekend.
Last week was a solid one for upset predictions. We went 2-3 as Oklahoma (+180) and Virginia (+195) both won outright, leading to a bottom line of +0.57 units for the week.
5 upset predictions
Below you’ll find 5 upset picks for this week. Included is the best market price from a variety of sports betting apps based on the latest college football odds:
Florida over Tennessee
I’m still not sure the market has caught up to just how bad Tennessee’s defense is this season. Some models like SP+ still have some preseason priors baked in, so the Vols rank 56th in defensive SP+ this year entering Week 13. But metrics that are limited to this season paint a much darker picture. Per Game on Paper, Tennessee’s defense ranks 113th in EPA-per-play allowed and 124th in defensive success rate.
I saw enough out of Florida last week to believe that the Gators haven’t quit quite yet. This Florida offense is certainly capable of making big plays, as we saw in Oxford last week. The Florida defense should get a nice boost with Caleb Banks set to return this week, too. I think Florida will be ready to go for this home game and Tennessee could be in trouble in The Swamp.
Pick: Florida +165 (via BetMGM)
USC over Oregon
This pick is a product of me being lower on Oregon than the consensus. The Ducks are the better overall team and they’re at home, but I do think USC can cause some problems in this matchup. I think USC has the quarterback advantage and the Trojans will be highly motivated — a win would put them in serious contention to earn a College Football Playoff berth for the first time under Lincoln Riley. I think this game could end up being significantly closer than the markets currently suggest.Â
Pick: USC +305 (via Fanatics)
Pittsburgh over Georgia Tech
Give me Pitt in a bounce-back spot after getting crushed by Notre Dame this past week. The Panthers have a good team, but playing the Fighting Irish was a bit too much to ask of true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. Georgia Tech’s defense has been horrendous for most of this season and the Yellow Jackets have a rivalry game against Georgia on deck. It’s not a true look-ahead spot because GT has no path to the Playoff if it doesn’t beat Pittsburgh. But I’m more optimistic about Pitt heading into late November than I am about Georgia Tech. Â
Pick: Pittsburgh +120 (via bet365)
Cincinnati over BYU
The Bearcats are coming off of back-to-back losses to Utah and Arizona. The latter of those defeats came at home and was bitterly disappointing, as it knocked Cincy out of the top 25. Cincinnati does still have a path to the Big 12 Championship Game, though, and I do think we get a better effort from the Bearcats this week against a BYU team that has struggled at times on the road this season. I think BYU is a bit overrated by the polls — it comes into this game ranked 11th in the AP Poll but 22nd in SP+. I think Cincy has a good chance to win outright.Â
Pick: Cincinnati +115 (via BetMGM)
Stanford over Cal
Both Stanford and Cal are off a bye this week. The Cardinal have been consistently competitive in the face of adversity this season. There’s a long way to go, but I like what Andrew Luck seems to be building out there from a culture standpoint. Cal beat Louisville in overtime last time out and will certainly have the QB advantage in this game, but the Golden Bears have been pretty volatile this season game-to-game. I Stanford’s prospects are being underrated here.
Pick: Stanford +130 (via bet365)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
