No one made it through the SEC gauntlet unscathed last season.
And with all the same teams playing all the same teams in 2025, it seems more likely than not that this year’s champion will also take a loss at some point along the way. The current betting favorite to win the SEC at BetMGM (Texas, +250) is an underdog of 2.5 points in its opening game of the year.
The beauty of college football is that anyone can beat anyone on any given Saturday, and that makes an exercise like this somewhat pointless. The season likely won’t play out the way we think it will. Few thought Alabama’s first loss last season would come to Vanderbilt.
But it is still talking season for a few more weeks, and that means there’s still time to fire off some predictions that will soon look silly.
Here’s where I believe every SEC team will stumble for the first time during the 2025 season.
Alabama Crimson Tide
First loss: at South Carolina (Oct. 25)
The Crimson Tide will get off to a 7-0 start before losing in Columbia to a motivated South Carolina squad. The distance between these 2 teams last season was marginal — just 2 points. I expect South Carolina will play a little better at home, but I also suspect Alabama will be a little more efficient on offense. If you read my bold predictions column, you’d know that this game is the only one I have circled as a loss for the Tide during the 2025 regular season. I’m backing Alabama to win the SEC, which will still be on the table even with a conference loss on the road. If we constructed a point spread from Bill Connelly’s SP+, Alabama would be around a 9.5-point favorite on the road in this game. (South Carolina is getting 2.5 back in that number for homefield advantage.) I think the line will be around 7.5 when the actual game comes around, and I’d gladly take South Carolina at that price. Under Shane Beamer, South Carolina is 6-6 against the spread as an underdog at home with 5 outright victories. By this point in the season, Alabama will have already played 3 other times on the road, so the kinks should theoretically all be worked out. South Carolina will just have to be the better team.
Arkansas Razorbacks
First loss: at Ole Miss (Sept. 13)
Since the start of the 2021 season, Ole Miss is 34-6 at home as an outright favorite. The Rebels have shown a tendency to let poorer teams play them tight during that stretch (see: Kentucky) but they’ve nevertheless won at one of the highest rates in the SEC during that span. Arkansas does nothing of note in the first two weeks of the regular season, hosting Alabama A&M in the opener before hosting Arkansas State. Then it goes on the road to face the warp-speed Rebels. For a team that loved to play loose and careless last season, that’s a recipe for disaster. Arkansas leads the series with Ole Miss, but Ole Miss has a 2-game winning streak vs. the Hogs. Ole Miss is the better team, and this might be a blowout. But because it’s Ole Miss, you never know.
Auburn Tigers
First loss: at Oklahoma (Sept. 20)
There isn’t really a reason for Jackson Arnold to hate the Sooners — the ending seemed amicable enough — so his return trip shouldn’t be some emotion-filled endeavor. Oklahoma fans might give him a warm welcome. They might also be completely indifferent, focused instead on John Mateer and all the good he can do. Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin will be pretty focused on Mateer as well. And he has the tools to give Mateer at least a mild headache. Auburn was good enough on defense last season, and Keldric Faulk’s return gives the Tigers a chance to be great in 2025. But OU will win the explosive battle in this matchup because it has the better quarterback. Arnold and the Auburn offense will have to dink and dunk and the Sooners will force a few mistakes. Mateer will engineer some splash plays that fire up the home crowd. Winning on the road in the SEC is hard, and it’s made harder when you give the ball away. Every Hugh Freeze quarterback has struggled with that.
Florida Gators
First loss: at LSU (Sept. 13)
I love the Gators in 2025, but LSU could very well be 1-1 at this point and feeling a fire within the belly to avoid a 1-2 start. The Gators have been good enough on the road under Billy Napier to keep things close, but not enough to win. Under Napier, Florida is 4-9 outright in true road games. Over that same time frame, LSU is 19-2 in Death Valley. It’s hard to play there under normal circumstances. It’s even harder in a nighttime environment, and this game is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Florida’s defense last season was a little bend-don’t-break in that it ranked 62nd in EPA per play allowed but tied for 13th nationally in takeaways (25) and 16th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (50%). LSU’s offense can strike in a hurry, and from any spot on the field. At home, the Tigers knock out the Gators. The LSU vs. Florida series is tied 34-34-1, but Florida has just 1 victory in 7 trips to Baton Rouge over the past 15 years.
Georgia Bulldogs
First loss: vs. Alabama (Sept. 27)
An SP+-constructed point spread for this game would give the Bulldogs an ever-so-slight 1.5-point edge at home. That’s factoring in 2.5 for the homefield advantage. I think I trust Alabama’s defense a little bit more. I know I trust Alabama’s offensive play-caller more. I’m not a Gunner Stockton skeptic — the opposite, in fact — but Alabama should be able to make Stockton uncomfortable. Alabama leads the series with Georgia and has won 2 in a row. This has all the indications of another epic, heavyweight collision. But Alabama projects as the better team at the line of scrimmage and that should lead to some opportunities for the secondary to create a takeaway or two that steers the result in Alabama’s direction.
Kentucky Wildcats
First loss: vs. Toledo (Aug. 30)
In terms of net, opponent-adjusted EPA per play, Toledo was a better team than Kentucky last season. The margin between these two teams, according to SP+, is just 6 points on a neutral field. The Kentucky offense was atrocious last season, and the defense wasn’t close to good enough to negate that fact. Kentucky might be solid in the rushing department — I like Nebraska (and one-time Oregon) transfer Dante Dowdell — but that won’t mean a thing if Kentucky can’t threaten defenses with the pass. The receivers have questions, the offensive line is remade, and the quarterback is making a step up from the FCS level. The Rockets shocked another SEC team on the road last season, beating Mississippi State 41-17 in Starkville. After that result, the offense went sideways, but Kentucky isn’t a team that will race away from opponents. There’s already a ton of angst in Lexington. I like Toledo to throw some punches and turn this into a dogfight that keeps the home team uncomfortable all game long.
LSU Tigers
First loss: at Clemson (Aug. 30)
Did you know Brian Kelly hasn’t won an opener yet as the LSU head coach? Did you know that LSU, as a program, hasn’t won an opener since its 2019 national championship season? Those are totally new, never-before-seen stats. According to NOLA.com, Clemson logos adorn punching bags in the LSU weight room and screens inside the football facility have “1-0” plastered all over them. Shout out to Kelly for this innovative approach to beginning a season by focusing squarely on the first opponent. The issue at play here is that even if LSU is better than it has been in an opener, Clemson is going to be awesome. And “Death Valley Jr.” is going to be a hellscape for LSU’s sideline after Kelly gave the entire fanbase a reason to bring the energy for their Week 1 matchup. Clemson’s defensive line projects as one of the best in the nation and LSU is replacing 4 starters on an offensive line that kept Garrett Nussmeier upright but was not elite by any means. LSU is going to have a hard time getting a hold of this game, and that’ll mean the crowd will be a real factor throughout.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
First loss: vs. Arizona State (Sept. 6)
According to SP+, Arizona State is nearly 2 touchdowns better than Mississippi State on a neutral field. StarkVegas is fun, but it doesn’t make up 14 points. And certainly not when the opponent has as dynamite a quarterback-receiver combination as the Sun Devils have. Quarterback Sam Leavitt — who finished last season 11th in Total QBR and 13th in EPA — returns alongside dangerous deep threat Jordyn Tyson. Tyson had 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 games last season. Only 2 Big 12 receivers — Travis Hunter and top-10 draft pick Tetairoa McMillan — had more 20-yard receptions than Tyson and that’ll be a problem for a Mississippi State defense that was constantly gashed through the air last year.
Mizzou Tigers
First loss: vs. South Carolina (Sept. 20)
The mobile quarterbacks really hurt Mizzou last season. Diego Pavia had 84 rushing yards and 178 passing yards in a double-overtime game against the Tigers. Jalen Milroe threw for 215 (shame, MIZ) and ran for 50 with a score in a 34-0 Alabama drubbing. Oklahoma’s starting quarterback threw 24 times for 74 yards and yet still did enough with his legs to keep the Sooners in it in the fourth quarter. Taylen Green threw for 229 and ran for 53 in a one-score game with Mizzou. And LaNorris Sellers? Mizzou defensive coordinator Corey Batoon still has nightmares about what Sellers did to his coverages last season. Sellers might take a significant step forward in 2025, and this game lands early enough on the schedule that Mizzou might still be ironing out its pass rush in the post-Johnny Walker era. Gamecocks make their first statement of the season on the road.
Oklahoma Sooners
First loss: vs. Texas (Oct. 11)
First of all, what a quarterback matchup this game will be. Arch Manning versus John Mateer? With both getting their first fried-oreo-flavored taste of the Cotton Bowl? The Red River Rivalry is always must-watch TV, but with the star power at quarterback in this game, there’s the potential for fireworks. As in, a 45-40 final scoreline. Texas is more talented at this point than the Sooners, and I have serious questions about Oklahoma’s offensive line. That unit might be better in 2025 than it was in 2024 — for the sake of Mateer’s health, it needs to be — but if there are any flies in the ointment, Texas’ front 7 will expose them in a disastrous way.
Ole Miss Rebels
First loss: at Georgia (Oct. 18)
The 2024 version of the Rebels spent 12 months preparing to beat Georgia. It wasn’t a singular focus on beating one team, but so much of how Ole Miss went about its business between Nov. 12, 2023, and Nov. 9, 2024, was influenced by the Bulldogs. I expect the Rebels to be good again in 2025. I’m not expecting any sort of significant step back from Lane Kiffin and his group. But I do wonder if the edge that existed in this matchup last season will be unavailable to the Rebels when they meet again in 2025. Georgia has dominated the series vs. Ole Miss but got some humble pie from Ole Miss last year. The 18-point defeat in Oxford was the worst loss suffered by Kirby Smart since the 2019 SEC Championship Game. Georgia could very well be the team with the emotional edge in this matchup now.
South Carolina Gamecocks
First loss: at LSU (Oct. 11)
The game between South Carolina and LSU last year sucked. The ending was painted in controversy, and that controversy overshadowed an otherwise brilliant game. LSU trailed 17-0 on the road and fought all the way back to win, scoring a go-ahead touchdown with 1:12 left in the game. There were miscues and huge plays and goalline stands and in the end, all that most will remember were a few yellow flags. South Carolina didn’t help itself; the Gamecocks were flagged 13 times. But one of those flags came in the fourth quarter on a bogus personal foul penalty, wiping away a 100-yard pick-6 that would have put South Carolina up by 11 points with 5:58 to go. The Gamecocks would certainly be justified in thinking that play robbed them of a College Football Playoff appearance. They’ll want this rematch with LSU badly. I do wonder if that has a reductive effect on this particular game. Both sides will have 2 weeks to prepare and that should give Blake Baker some time to cook up a defensive game plan to slow LaNorris Sellers. A road win over Mizzou will speak volumes for South Carolina’s growth, but a road game in Death Valley will be South Carolina’s first opportunity to assert itself as a legitimate force in the Playoff discussion. That’s just a lot of emotional baggage on top of a game in one of the toughest places to play.
Tennessee Volunteers
First loss: vs. Georgia (Sept. 13)
Welcome to the SEC, Joey Aguilar. You get to open against one of the best defensive minds in the game. Syracuse could challenge Tennessee in the opener, but ETSU will do nothing to prepare Aguilar or the Vols for what they’ll see in Georgia. With Aguilar arriving so late in the process and having to learn another new playbook, mistakes are bound to happen early on. Aguilar’s nature is that of a gunslinger. Over his past 2 seasons, he has 50 big-time throws and 51 turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF. The potential for Aguilar to fire Tennessee right out of this game is very real. I would expect Georgia to load up to stop the Tennessee rushing attack and ask Aguilar to beat it with his arm. I would imagine the gap between Sun Belt athleticism and Georgia athleticism is significant, which means those windows will be slammed shut lickity-split as Georgia extends its winning streak vs. Tennessee to 9.
Texas Longhorns
First loss: at Ohio State (Aug. 30)
The lookahead line favors the defending national champs at most major shops. Despite a new quarterback and new coordinators and a bunch of talent lost to the NFL, Ohio State is No. 1 in the preseason SP+ ratings. The model views Ohio State as 3.1 points better than Texas on a neutral field, and when these 2 teams meet to open the season, it will be anythingbut a neutral field. Texas quarterback Arch Manning might be very good, but we don’t know that yet. The inverse is also true. Because of the caliber of competition Manning faced in his spot starts last season, we don’t know what we don’t know with the famous Longhorn. If there are things to expose, Ohio State will expose them. And, early on, I’m betting there are.
Texas A&M Aggies
First loss: at LSU (Oct. 25)
This is the biggest prediction on here. I have Texas A&M standing neck-and-neck with Alabama as the last remaining unbeaten teams in the SEC. And, fittingly, I have them both losing on the same day. I like Mike Elko a lot, and there’s no doubt he’ll have the most talented team he’s ever had this season with Texas A&M. And the schedule isn’t a cake walk through the first 7 games of the year. A&M would have beaten Notre Dame on the road and Florida at home to reach this spot unbeaten. With LSU potentially carrying multiple losses at this point in the year, the Tigers will be fighting for their Playoff lives in a home game against an A&M team that will have at least some sense of security in the back of its mind. LSU leads the all-time series with A&M but makes amends for last year’s debacle trying to contain Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed and ends the dream start to extend the Tigers’ lead in the all-time series vs. A&M.
Vanderbilt Commodores
First loss: at Virginia Tech (Sept. 6)
Vanderbilt was an amazing story last season. But the win over the Crimson Tide overshadowed some warts. The Commodores were inconsistent. When quarterback Diego Pavia was banged up, they were wildly ineffective. Turnover luck helped a great deal, field position was constantly tilted in Vandy’s favor, and Pavia was unyielding late in games. But things like turnover luck and late-game success are often fickle in college football. If any of them swing the opposite direction in 2025, Vandy is going to find itself playing catch up. The defense wasn’t good if it wasn’t taking the football away. According to Game on Paper, Vandy ranked 119th in EPA per play allowed. And Virginia Tech has a backfield duo that can make some stuff happen when healthy. Quarterback Kyron Drones returns for Tech, alongside running back Terrion Arnold. The worst time to see Drones is early in the season when he’s still healthy. In a revenge spot for the Hokies at home, the line of scrimmage is controlled by the home team.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
