Florida isn’t likely to make a head coaching hire for at least another several weeks, but it’s never too early to start speculating about the upcoming coaching carousel.
With the rise of legal prediction markets like Kalshi, you can put money behind your opinions. The markets can be volatile — they have the potential to move with every rumor and flight tracker update. But they can also be fruitful for fans and bettors who have the right read on where a coaching search is headed.
Florida head coach candidates
Kalshi has posted markets on who will be the next head coach of the Florida Gators. Money from users has already been pouring in on various candidates, so let’s take a look at where things currently stand.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
Current Kalshi price: 63 cents per contract
Lane Kiffin’s name has been attached to the Florida job for quite some time. A spiritual successor of sorts to legendary Florida coach Steve Spurrier, Kiffin has done great work over the last few years as Ole Miss’s head coach. He was also linked to Auburn‘s vacancy after the 2022 season. At his current price, Kiffin has been installed as a significant favorite to land this job according to Kalshi’s marketplace. He’s likely to be a strong candidate at Florida for as long as this job remains open.
Eli Drinkwitz, Mizzou
Current Kalshi price: 38 cents per contract
Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz is another name that’s been linked to this opening throughout this process so far. Drinkwitz got off to a bit of a slow start at Mizzou, but has back-to-back 10-win seasons in Columbia and the Tigers appear to be on track for another great season in 2025. Like Kiffin and Spurrier, Drinkwitz is known for his humor and prolific offenses.
Brent Key, Georgia Tech
Current Kalshi price: 33 cents per contract
Georgia Tech coach Brent Key is certainly in line to earn some SEC consideration this cycle. He has the Yellow Jackets in a position to potentially compete for an at-large berth in the College Football Playoff this year. Georgia Tech hasn’t finished the season ranked in the top-10 of the AP Poll since 2014. Key is a Georgia Tech alum, so it’s possible he won’t seriously pursue other head coaching opportunities if he plans to stay at his alma mater long term.
Alex Golesh, South Florida
Current Kalshi price: 31 cents per contract
Alex Golesh is likely to have SEC head coaching opportunities this cycle, be it at Florida or another job. Golesh is South Florida’s head coach. He beat Florida earlier this season and has turned the Bulls into one of the best Group-of-5 programs in the country. Golesh is also an offensive mind who has pedigree in the SEC. He was Josh Heupel’s offensive coordinator at Tennessee from 2021-22.
Florida head coach prediction
On Kalshi, you’re not limited to just making predictions on things that you think will happen. You can also place predictions on what you think won’t happen. That’s a potentially-valuable mechanism for head coaching search markets.
In this case, I think there’s value on picking against Kiffin to be Florida’s next head coach. Much has been made about Kiffin’s decision to turn down the Auburn gig a few years ago. While Florida is a more prestigious opportunity, I think Kiffin will ultimately recognize that was he’s built in Oxford may be difficult to replicate in Gainesville. He has the requisite stability and resources at Ole Miss to compete for a place in the College Football Playoff annually. He’s also already one of the highest-paid coaches in the sport — I don’t think there’s a ton of upside for him in Gainesville and I think he’ll come to that same conclusion when evaluating his options later this year.
Pick: Lane Kiffin to NOT be the next Florida head coach (57 cents per contract)
How does Kalshi work?
Kalshi is a prediction market that allows users to put money behind their opinions. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi is legal in all 50 US states. Markets are wide-ranging and can include everything from the outcome of college football games to the weather in a particular city or even the final Rotten Tomatoes score of certain film releases.
Users can purchase contracts that will pay out at a rate of $1 per contract if the prediction is proven to be accurate. For example, if Kiffin is not Florida’s next permanent head coach, then a $10 prediction at a cost of 57 cents per contract would result in a $17 payout.
Users are also able to update their prediction as new information becomes available at the current market price. For example, if you predicted Golesh to be Florida’s next head coach and his odds increase over the coming weeks, you could choose to sell your contracts at the current market price and potentially lock in a profit.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
