Finally, the Playoff is here. Well, Playoff week is at least here.
Starting Friday night with Alabama traveling to Oklahoma, the 2025 College Football Playoff will begin. We’ve got 2 Round 1 matchups that are nearly coin flips with 2 Round 1 matchups that are … not. Even if that plays out, it’ll give us 2 more competitive games than we had last year when Round 1 games were decided by an average of 18.8 points, and all of them were double-digit margins.
Of course, the post-Year 1 tweak of changing the byes with the 4 highest-ranked conference champs no longer earning automatic quarterfinal berths could impact that. For all we know, we’ll get 4 down-to-the-wire games that’ll make even the greatest 12-team Playoff skeptics grateful that the field expanded.
So what’s in store for Round 1?
Here’s a prediction for all 4 of those games (odds via BetMGM):
No. 9 Alabama (-1) at No. 8 Oklahoma
There’s a chance that the takeaway after the first Playoff game is that Brent Venables simply has Kalen DeBoer‘s number. A 3-0 record against the Alabama coach would indicate such a trend, especially if DeBoer’s offense once again looks like it’s stuck in the mud. While you could argue that kicking was the difference in their matchup earlier in the season, it feels like we need to see significant adjustments made from DeBoer and Ryan Grubb to jump-start an offense that faded down the stretch. Doing that against perhaps a top-3 defense in the sport in what figures to be a hostile atmosphere could change that.
So what suggests that Alabama could actually flip the script? That Oklahoma offense is the weakest unit of any that’ll take the field on Friday. The OU faithful, while glad to be back in the Playoff for the first time since 2019, could grow restless if that group is ineffective at home once again. The Sooners got into the Playoff because they could occasionally hit on that chunk pass play and wipe away a slew of 3-and-outs. Who has allowed the second fewest 20-yard pass plays in America, you ask? Alabama. That proves to be a huge asset working in the Tide’s favor.
And on the other side of the ball, Jam Miller’s potential return doesn’t necessarily turn the Alabama offense into a juggernaut, but a healthier unit does what DeBoer said it would do moments after the blowout loss in the SEC Championship. It takes advantage of the opportunity. DeBoer improves to 4-0 vs. AP Top 10 teams in true road games, and Alabama earns a trip to the place that hosted the final game of the Nick Saban era, the Rose Bowl.
Score prediction: Alabama 24, Oklahoma 20
No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (-3.5)
History is working against Miami in a couple ways. For starters, Mario Cristobal has 1 career true road win vs. an AP Top 10 team. It was back in 2021 when he led Oregon to an impressive win at Ohio State (it was also in early September). But this is perhaps the more startling reality entering this matchup. Miami is trying to become the first ACC team to win a New Year’s 6/Playoff game since 2019 Clemson. Don’t believe me? Read ’em and weep:
- 2020 Rose Bowl: Alabama 31, Notre Dame 14*
- 2020 Sugar Bowl: Ohio State 49, Clemson 28
- 2020 Orange Bowl: Texas A&M 41, UNC 27
- 2021 Peach Bowl: Michigan State 31, Pitt 21
- 2022 Orange Bowl: Tennessee 31, Clemson 14
- 2023 Orange Bowl: Georgia 63, Florida State 3
- 2024 CFP First Round: Texas 38, Clemson 24
- 2024 CFP First Round: Penn State 38, SMU 10
*Spent 2020 COVID season as ACC team
To recap, that’s an 0-8 mark with 0 games decided by single digits and an average margin of defeat of 22.6 points. Woof. That’s why the ACC will be a 1-bid league until further notice. So how is it that a team that couldn’t even play for an ACC title in a league that crowned a 5-loss conference champ have any chance of going on the road and winning in front of 108,000 people?
Well, that’s far from a given, but there’s a path. Miami’s ground game is the key to this. Specifically, a healthy Mark Fletcher Jr. is the key after he was banged up mid-season, but is expected to be good to go for Saturday after he forced 40 missed tackles on 141 carries. Miami would prefer not to let Cashius Howell and that Texas A&M pass rush pin its ears back against Carson Beck, who has benefited from the lowest pressure rate among FBS quarterbacks (14.7%). What’s the best way to do that? Run the football. Like, run the football against the A&M run defense that surrendered over 200 yards on 4 different occasions, 3 of which were in the latter half of the season.
Miami can lean on A&M and take the Marcel Reed-led offense out of rhythm. That leads to a couple of timely mistakes by A&M. Instead of this being a coronation for the promising start to the Mike Elko era, it turns into a painful reminder that ascending into Tier 1 in college football is no small feat. Miami ends the ACC drought.
Score prediction: Miami 31, A&M 24
No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (-17.5)
We all want to know how big of a difference it’ll be for Ole Miss without Lane Kiffin. That storyline will be evident considering that this was a 45-10 Ole Miss beatdown when these teams met in Oxford back in September. The context that’ll be lost is the fact that Kiffin wouldn’t necessarily be guaranteed to lead another 35-point victory against a Tulane team that Ole Miss seeing for the second time. BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff now has more experience in this offense, and like we’ve seen with plenty of Jon Sumrall teams, that defense has been much improved since the calendar turned from October to November even amid speculation that their head coach was off to his next job.
You get it. This doesn’t feel like it’ll be another 45-10 game. That’s not an indictment of the Ole Miss offense, which won’t have Kiffin but will still have Charlie Weis Jr. and several members of that offensive staff to guide Trinidad Chambliss and Co. It’s more a testament to a Tulane defense that allowed an average of 18 points and 60.4 rushing yards/game in its last 5 contests. Will Tulane suddenly shut down an Ole Miss offense that averaged 8 yards per play in the first matchup? No way. Tackling Kewan Lacy is still going to be a tall task after he forced the most missed tackles of any Power Conference running back, and getting pressure on Chambliss will be an uphill battle after he had 419 scrimmage yards (307 passing, 112 rushing) in the first matchup.
There’s too much of an established identity on the Ole Miss side of the ball to think that Kiffin’s absence will flip a 5-touchdown result, but much like we’ve seen throughout this season, it’s perhaps another game in which things are never truly out of reach. Ole Miss survives its first game of the post-Kiffin era.
Score prediction: Ole Miss 28, Tulane 17
No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (-21.5)
Let me get out ahead of something here. We don’t need to bang the drum for change if James Madison is blown out in Eugene. I already outlined how much the ACC has struggled to be competitive in the biggest games in the 2020s. Even if Notre Dame, Vanderbilt or Texas would’ve given us a better game, this still only happened this way because the ACC had a 5-loss conference champ. We don’t need to gate-keep JMU just because there could be a 2-hour stretch in our lives in which we realize that 2 teams aren’t on the same level. Shoot, we forget how many moments that we had that in semifinals of the 4-team Playoff.
OK, that’s out of the way, right? Good.
Yeah, I don’t think this will be particularly close. Among the Playoff quarterbacks, Alonza Barnett III has the worst adjusted completion percentage (54%) under pressure. That’s advantage, Oregon. This year’s version of the Ducks hasn’t had a dominant pass-rush, but in a 1-game scenario against an inferior opponent, Dan Lanning can dial up some pressure. Meanwhile, Dante Moore’s biggest improvement since his arrival at Oregon has been throwing under pressure. His 73.5% adjusted completion percentage ranks No. 3 among those Playoff quarterbacks, and he’s only taken 13 sacks this season.
Oregon has a better chance of staying on schedule, which will open things up for those chunk plays. For a team that was No. 2 in America in 20-yard scrimmage plays per game, that bodes well. Yes, there’s some concern that Oregon’s Playoff outlook took a hit with both coordinators, Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi, taking Power Conference head coaching jobs. But in this matchup, I fully expect Lanning’s team to show up prepared and look the part in a lopsided home win.
Score prediction: Oregon 45, James Madison 21
Get in on the action this weekend by checking out our list of the best real money betting apps ahead of kickoff.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
