Rivals North Carolina and NC State are heading in familiar, opposite basketball directions
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RALEIGH, N.C. – It’s never too early to start projecting an NCAA Tournament bracket.
Joe Lunardi is proof of that.
Not one to let anyone get the jump on him, ESPN’s esteemed Guessologist doesn’t even wait for the games to begin before seeding the entire 68-team field.
While that might make for good conversation on podcasts and social media, RJ Davis knows better than to take the chatter seriously. Especially when it’s trying to write his team off on the wrong side of the bubble.
The reigning ACC Player of the Year knows from personal experience that it’s never too late to prove the doubters wrong. He and his North Carolina Tar Heels did just that during his sophomore season of 2021-22.
After meandering through the first 3 months of the season, UNC hit on a winning combination in mid-February and rode it all the way to the national championship game.
There’s still a long way to go and issues yet to be resolved before this year’s team can set its sights that high. But after Saturday’s gritty 63-61 win at NC State – the Tar Heels’ third straight victory over the past 8 days – Davis can already feel a familiar momentum starting to build.
“Where we’re at with our mindset, the way we’re practicing and playing, I love it. Because we’re pushing in the right direction,” the graduate guard said. “With the streak we’re on, I think we’re starting to buy in and do the little things that are allowing us to have a different outcome in close games than we did at the beginning of the season.”
Sometimes the process of flipping the switch and having the light come on is a gradual one.
In UNC’s case, it appears to have happened with a sudden jolt.
Trailing by 3 and in danger of falling below .500 in the ACC with 4 seconds remaining at Notre Dame last Saturday, Hubert Davis’ team salvaged an improbable 74-73 victory when Elliot Cadeau hit a clutch 3-pointer, then converted the ensuing and-1,
Three nights later, it put together its most complete 40-minute effort of the season in a 15-point beatdown of a good SMU team. It then followed that up by maintaining their composure down the stretch in a hostile environment to hold off the rival Wolfpack in an emotional rivalry game.
Beyond the winning results, the most encouraging aspect of the mini-streak has been the players who have stepped up to make the most impactful winning plays.
The improving Tar Heels (11-6, 4-1 ACC) no longer have to rely solely on Davis, the second-leading scorer in program history, to pull them through in decisive situations.
Against Notre Dame, it was Cadeau who did the heavy lifting. Against SMU, freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell combined for 35 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists. And on Saturday at NC State, the hero was big man Jalen Washington.
A 6-foot-10 junior who is just starting to realize his 5-star potential after battling a series of knee injuries earlier in his career, Washington scored the go-ahead basket on a dunk at one end of the floor before sealing the deal at the other with a blocked shot at the buzzer.
“It’s nice to see different people step up on both ends of the floor in late-game situations,” Hubert Davis said. “That’s been a real key for us.”
But it’s only one piece of the puzzle. In order to keep the snowball rolling and building, the Tar Heels must still prove they can be more consistent from one half to the next. Especially on defense and on the glass, an area in which they have struggled greatly without a true low post presence on their roster.
“(NC State) shot 60% from the field in the second half,” Davis said, adding that his team allowed the Wolfpack to grab 16 offensive rebounds. “That’s just not sustainable. And we can’t live on that. So the growth of us is to put 2 halves together defensively and rebounding. Then I’ll feel like we’re in a really good spot.”
Even with those rough edges still to iron out, UNC is still in a much better spot heading into the meat of the ACC schedule than the Wolfpack.
It’s not as if the Wolfpack are struggling. They’ve won most of the games they’re supposed to have won and don’t have any egregious losses. It’s just that at 9-7 overall, 2-3 in the conference, with a NET ranking of 109 heading into Saturday’s action, Kevin Keatts’ team is treading in a dangerously familiar direction.
“I think we’re on the right track,” said point guard Michael O’Connell, one of the heroes of State’s magical 2024 postseason. “Things aren’t always going to go your way. But I believe in our guys and I believe in our coach. I think we’ll keep getting better and be just fine.”
Unless the Wolfpack finds the answers they’re still searching for, most of which are on the offensive end of the court, their only realistic hope of earning an NCAA bid will be by staging another miracle ACC Tournament run.
They proved last year that winning 5 games in as many days is possible. But the odds of it happening 2 years in a row, by the same team, are about on par with hitting all 6 numbers on a winning PowerBall ticket.
While that’s a scenario O’Connell and his returning teammates might eventually have to face, they – like UNC’s RJ Davis – know from first-hand experience that the light can be switched on at a moment’s notice.
Even after the doubters and Bracketologists have already written you off.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
