Very little separates No. 10 from No. 11 in a power ranking aside from personal preference. It’s already an incredibly subjective exercise, but Zach Lowe, formerly of ESPN and currently of The Ringer, has eschewed power rankings in favor of a “tiers list” for years and I like the idea better. So, I’m ditching a traditional power ranking and presenting you with a tiers list in the SEC.
The order in which teams are listed within the tiers doesn’t matter.
Let’s get to it.
The Heatles
Alabama Crimson Tide
Texas Longhorns
Georgia Bulldogs
After a 96-82 win over the then-Bobcats on the road in Charlotte, LeBron James referred to the Miami Heat’s star trio as “the Heatles,” citing Miami’s draw on the road and likening the NBA’s supervillain at the time to the legendary Liverpool singers. The nickname stuck, and years later, the trio of James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh is still commonly referred to as “the Heatles.”
It was a Big 3 that set the stage for Big 3s, and it was a party everyone wanted to experience at least once. I like the allusion here for the triumvirate of Alabama, Georgia, and Texas. In this trio, we have college football royalty that draws a crowd wherever they go. We have 3 teams that are absolutely national championship threats. And we have 3 teams who have very few questions entering the 2025 season.
That’s how I settled on separating these teams, for what it’s worth. Which programs have the most questions? Which have the fewest? I have only 1 or 2 questions for this trio and, coincidentally, one of those questions is the same across the board.
What kind of quarterback play are you getting?
In all 3 spots, a sliding scale of quarterback performance determines the ceiling. If Ty Simpson is a strong fit for the Kalen DeBoer system and can operate at something like 80% of Michael Penix Jr., Alabama is one of the best teams in the country. If Gunner Stockton is an upgrade over Carson Beck in terms of efficiency, Georgia won’t have the “down year” some are forecasting. If Arch Manning is elite, Texas could run table.
If any of those 3 quarterbacks fail to live up to expectations or struggle to meet the moment, their respective team can lose multiple times.
Bud Elliott’s Blue-Chip Ratio suggests these are 3 of the 6 most talented rosters in college football. Last season, Texas and Alabama were both top-12 in Game on Paper’s net adjusted EPA-per-play metric thanks to top-10 defenses. Georgia wasn’t in the top 50, but the Bulldogs have the best coach in the sport so I’m willing to, for the time being, accept the 2024 season as a blip and not a sign of slippage.
Alabama and Texas should both have elite defenses once again because of what returns.
The Georgia defense wasn’t statistically elite last season, but it still produced 3 first-round NFL Draft picks and 4 preseason First-Team All-SEC picks. There are upperclassmen and/or former 5-star recruits all over the 2-deep, so you have to think a return to the national championship form of prior seasons is on the table.
On an island
LSU Tigers
LSU gets a tier of its own. I don’t know how to evaluate the ceiling of this team because I don’t think I trust its coach. On pure talent, LSU is a conference title contender with only a few questions.
Can Harold Perkins and Whit Weeks make it through the entire season fully healthy? Can a rebuilt offensive line do more than last year’s group? But, realistically, only one concern matters.
Is Brian Kelly the guy to get the job done in Baton Rouge? The College Football Playoff formed in Kelly’s fifth season at Notre Dame. He made the 4-team field twice in 8 years — losing by 27 points the first time and by 17 points the last time — before fleeing for LSU. On his way out, he said he wanted an opportunity to compete for championships. Since taking over the LSU program, he has failed to make the CFP with a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback while Marcus Freeman took a team led by Riley Leonard to a CFP title game.
Kelly hasn’t won an opener yet at LSU and to buck that trend he’ll have to beat Dabo Swinney in Clemson. BetMGM lists LSU as a 3.5-point dog in that game. The Bayou Bengals are 5-5 as an underdog under Kelly. The losses have looked dreadful:
- 3-point underdog vs. No. 8 Tennessee in 2022: 40-13 loss
- 17.5-point underdog vs. No. 1 Georgia in 2022: 50-30 loss
- 3-point underdog at No. 8 Alabama in 2023: 42-28 loss
- 2-point underdog at No. 14 Texas A&M in 2024: 38-23 loss
- 3-point underdog vs. No. 11 Alabama in 2024: 42-13 loss
The wins are over Baylor in last year’s bowl game, Ole Miss in overtime last season, Alabama in overtime (2022), Florida (’22), and Mississippi State (’22). Posting a .500 record in games you aren’t supposed to win is fine; getting pasted by teams in games you are supposed to be competitive in is not. We could make the case that the 1-point overtime win over Alabama at home in Kelly’s first season was the only time in Kelly’s tenure where he actually did the thing he was brought to Baton Rouge to do. Neither Mississippi State, Florida, nor Baylor were ranked in the AP poll when LSU won. I don’t much care about those.
I can’t confidently say LSU won’t get rolled in its opener. But I also can’t say any team you’ll find listed below these Tigers is more talented.
Clear eyes, full hearts, could lose
Texas A&M Aggies
South Carolina Gamecocks
Ole Miss Rebels
Mizzou Tigers
Florida Gators
I have 3 major questions for each of the teams in this tier. Everyone is capable of making a run. Everyone is capable of stubbing their toe when they shouldn’t and muck up their season as a result.
On the Aggies: First, can Marcel Reed consistently beat teams as a passer? The Aggies’ social account sharing clips of Reed throwing to open receivers in camp drills with a “we thought he wasn’t a passer?” stinger might actually give me less confidence he can, in fact, beat teams as a passer. Second, is A&M prepared to replace the trio of Shemar Stewart, Nic Scourton, and Shemar Turner along the defensive line? I’m skeptical of trying to replace one impact player in the aggregate, which is what A&M might have to do. The impact of the player was that he was a singular force offenses had to work around. A&M had 3 of them last year. How many remain? And third, will a rebuilt secondary hold up after getting shredded late last year?
On the Gamecocks: First, if Rahsul Faison is not eligible, what’s the plan at running back? The NCAA has done Faison and SC coach Shane Beamer dirty with its handling of Faison’s case, but South Carolina needs to be prepared for the worst. Second, can LaNorris Sellers take the necessary steps as a passer for this team to make the leap? I can point to several throws in the Alabama game that Sellers needs to hit that he didn’t. He was 47th last year in EPA per drop back, according to Game on Paper. Third, the defense lost 5 players who were drafted in the opening 4 rounds. Those guys helped the Gamecocks rank 17th nationally in EPA per play allowed. They can’t have any slippage on defense and still push for a CFP bid.
On the Rebels: First, is Austin Simmons reliable for more than just a drive against Georgia when the Bulldogs haven’t prepped for him? Yes, Simmons operated brilliantly when called in cold off the bench for an injured Jaxson Dart, but it’s different when a top-flight team spends a week (or more) preparing for your stuff. Second, similar to A&M and SC, Ole Miss is replacing a number of NFL-caliber bodies on defense who were wildly important to their success last season. Did coach Lane Kiffin hit on another transfer class to plug the holes? Third, does Ole Miss have any semblance of a run game to help its young quarterback? The Rebels ranked 74th last year in EPA per rush and 58th in rushing success rate.
On the Tigers: First, Is quarterback Beau Pribula ready for the starting job? He hasn’t technically won the job yet with just weeks to go before the season. If the former blue-chipper and Penn State transfer is beaten out by Sam Horn, we’ve got issues. Second, does a rebuilt offensive line give the ground game enough room to flourish? Ahmad Hardy should be awesome, but 5 of last year’s top 7 offensive linemen have been replaced (all via the portal). Third, can Mizzou make another jump on defense under second-year coordinator Corey Batoon?
On the Gators: First, can quarterback DJ Lagway stay healthy for a full season? He wasn’t healthy for the entirety of his high school career. He wasn’t healthy for his freshman season. And he hasn’t been healthy at any point this offseason. This is a situation that shouldn’t be glossed over. Second, will last season’s lineup shuffles actually produce some stars, or just a ton of serviceable depth? Florida had to use multiple bodies at every spot last season for one reason or another. There are some intriguing breakout candidates as a result. But if none of those guys pop, the ceiling is much lower. Third, can Lagway take steps as an intermediate passer and decision-maker after spending most of his developmental time this offseason nursing a shoulder injury? Lagway was awesome going deep last year. He was poor in the areas you expect first-year guys to be poor. We’re a year away with this team if Lagway is still a year away.
Praying for Superman
Both of these programs feature head coaches hoping remade offenses can save their jobs in 2025.
Both Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze and Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables enter the new season very firmly on the hot seat. Freeze needs to end a string of 4 consecutive seasons with 7 losses. Venables enters his fourth season at the helm of the OU program with a pair of 6-7 records staining the résumé.
Still, both programs are inside the top 25 of Bill Connelly’s SP+ model.
Oklahoma’s defense was elite last season but its offense was horrific. Venables brought Ben Arbuckle over from Washington State, who convinced quarterback John Mateer to follow him. Mateer was one of the most sought-after transfers of the offseason after finishing the 2024 campaign ranked seventh nationally in EPA. Mateer was Cam Ward’s understudy 2 years ago and then took over for the No. 1 pick after he left for Miami. But Mateer also faced a Mountain West schedule last year and it’s fair to question if what made him special will scale against bigger defenses with better athletes.
Auburn was fine on defense last season — 43rd in defensive EPA per play — and bad on offense. The Tigers were undone by their mental mistakes. Auburn generally avoided the negative plays and penalties, it just couldn’t hold onto the dang football. Coach Herman Boone would have broken his foot off again and again last year; only 14 FBS teams had more turnovers last season. Freeze found a quarterback in the transfer portal who was safe with the ball almost to a fault. Jackson Arnold threw just 3 interceptions in 246 pass attempts last year, but his 7.8-yard average target depth was the second-worst of any SEC quarterback with at least 100 dropbacks. Thorne’s average depth was at 10 yards. If Freeze asks Arnold to take more shots, will he turn it over like other Freeze quarterbacks have?
Oklahoma has offseason buzz as a team that could shock the country. That seems a little premature. The offensive line was atrocious last year, and that had more to do with the offensive ineptitude than anything else. We don’t know if that has been fixed. If it hasn’t, OU needs Mateer to be Superman to save Venables’ job.
Similarly, Auburn needs Arnold (or Deuce Knight) to transform this team from mediocre to something worthy of keeping Freeze around. Auburn doesn’t have as much buzz, but it is the same kind of team — a quarterback away from pretty darn good.
More questions than answers
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Is the running back rotation able to make up for Dylan Sampson in the aggregate? There we go again with asking a collection of players to do what one guy did… Is the defense still just as good without the star power of last year’s team? Or are the injury concerns in the secondary an issue that could linger? Last year’s group was one of the best defenses Tennessee has had in decades, so expecting the same level of play is a little iffy when half of last year’s rotation is gone. Is Joey Aguilar ready for what he’s about to see in the SEC? And even if he is, does Tennessee have the necessary receivers to scare teams? Defenses have adjusted to the Josh Heupel system and begun surrendering the underneath stuff in the name of preventing the chunk plays down the field. Aguilar’s first 2 years have shown a player who wants to take those shots even when they aren’t there. He’s a big-play hunter who has too often put the ball in danger. I’m very curious to see how that meshes with this Tennessee team and this play-caller.
As for the Razorbacks, there’s an awesome quarterback leading the unit in Taylen Green and a fantastic play-caller aiming Green. My questions are with literally everything else. According to Connelly’s SP+ model, Arkansas is projected to win 2.5 conference games and has only a 38% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. The offense around Green is starting over; 19 guys played at least 200 snaps on defense last season and only 6 of them are back. With a ton of variance surrounding a team that didn’t really play sound football last season, is the head coach going to stick around all year?
I have no idea what to make of Tennessee or Arkansas and we’re only a few weeks away from the season. Green’s ability to make plays could lead an upset or two. Arkansas could also lose 6 conference games. Tennessee could drop from 10 wins to 7.
6-6 would be nice
Vanderbilt Commodores
A 40-35 win over Alabama at home pushed Vanderbilt into the postseason for the first time since 2018. In that win over the Crimson Tide, the Vandy defense gave up 35 points and 394 yards of total offense at 8.8 yards per play. Alabama possessed the football for just under 18 minutes. Vandy held it for 42 minutes and 8 seconds. Two turnovers killed the Crimson Tide. A 36-yard bomb to Junior Sherrill on fourth-and-1 in the third quarter sparked the ‘Dores after Alabama pulled within 2. This was a pretty flukey win that was the difference between another losing season and “Vandy has turned a corner.”
Perhaps Vandy has turned a corner. Quarterback Diego Pavia, back for another season, is a ball player who influences winning in intangible ways. But the 5-point win over the Tide was 1 of 4 wins last season that came by just a single score. Flip any of those games and we’re having a very different conversation. Vanderbilt leads the SEC in returning production, according to Connelly, yet SP+ gives the Commodores only a 25% chance of reaching 6 wins. Pavia and the ‘Dores won’t be catching anyone by surprise this season. Teams won’t overlook Vandy because of what happened to Alabama last fall. That provides coach Clark Lea with an opportunity to prove the ‘Dores have turned a corner. A second straight bowl game would speak volumes.
There’s always next year
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Kentucky Wildcats
At BetMGM, Kentucky is +10000 to make the SEC Championship Game and Mississippi State is +20000.
These two teams went a combined 1-15 in conference play last year.
Neither has any chance of making the conference title game. Neither has any realistic path to the Playoff. Either school might take a legitimate step forward, but this duo was outscored by 15 points on average in their 16 SEC games last season and being better still might not mean “good.”
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
