Week 12 SEC Primer: Season on the brink, Texas puts its Playoff hopes on the line at Georgia
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Everything you need to know about the Week 12 SEC slate, all in one place. (A bold • indicates Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.)
Game of the Week: Texas at Georgia (-5.5)
At various points this season, Texas and Georgia have lived dangerously enough that both seemed on the verge of tumbling out of national relevance. Still, after weeks of close calls, wild comebacks, and overtime escapes, Dawgs-Horns arrives more or less as advertised in August: A collision of top-10 teams with SEC championship and Playoff hopes intact as the schedule hits the home stretch. Surprisingly for a dog-eat-dog league that has dominated both the polls and TV ratings, it will be just the second matchup of the year between SEC teams ranked in the top 10 at kickoff, joining Georgia’s 43-35 win over Ole Miss in Week 8.
There is more urgency for the Longhorns. By now, though, they should be used to it — their season has been on the brink virtually from the start. Their first loss, a 14-7 snoozer at Ohio State on opening day, has been mostly forgiven, if not forgotten. Their second loss, a 29-21 flop at Florida in Week 6, has not. That setback sent the ‘Horns briefly plummeting out of the Top 25 altogether, and the climb back has been fraught. Texas restored some credibility a week later in a convincing, defensively-driven win over then-undefeated Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown. From there, it all nearly came crashing down again in Week 8, in an overtime escape at Kentucky; again in Week 9, in a frantic 4th-quarter comeback at Mississippi State after trailing by 17 points at the end of the 3rd; and again in Week 10, when the ‘Horns found themselves on the other end of a frantic 4th-quarter comeback by Vanderbilt that came up just short.
They have been surviving, rarely thriving. Their preseason No. 1 ranking has long been reduced to a footnote. But then, here they are, their larger goals still tentatively intact and their fate in their own hands in mid-November. There are much worse fates than merely surviving.
For its part, Georgia has not always been its best self, either. Rarely, in fact: In addition to its lone defeat against Alabama — the end of a 33-game home wining streak in Athens that started in 2019 — the Bulldogs have trailed in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 6 conference wins, nail-biters against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida; they also spotted Auburn a 10-0 lead in Week 7. If not for a missed field goal at the end of regulation in Knoxville and a couple of borderline, potentially game-changing calls in their favor against both Auburn and Florida, the Dawgs could easily be facing the same do-or-die circumstances as Texas, or worse.
As it stands, though, their Playoff position is about as secure as it can be, with enough margin for error at this point to assume they could weather a second loss to the Longhorns or Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale without forfeiting their ticket. Of course, they have no intention of putting that assumption to the test. Last week’s 41-21 romp at Mississippi State was Georgia’s most complete outing of the season, and arguably the first time the 2025 Dawgs have looked like a vintage Kirby Smart outfit from the championship years for the better part of 60 minutes. If that was a sign of things to come, this team still has a chance to etch its name into the ledger alongside some of Smart’s best, beginning on Saturday night.
When Georgia has the ball: Is the resurgent ground game sustainable?
Writing about Georgia’s offense the past couple years under offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has tended to involve a lot of references to screen passes and liberal use of the phrase “extension of the running game.” But last week’s win in Starkville was an old-fashioned exhibition of Running the Dang Ball, no caveats or accessories required. Georgia pounded Mississippi State to the tune of 303 yards rushing on 6.9 per carry, its biggest number on the ground vs. an SEC opponent in nearly 5 years. Most of that output came right up the gut, courtesy of sophomore Nate Frazier, who benefited from the kind of gaping running lanes that UGA backs have not enjoyed in a while. Per Pro Football Focus, 106 of Frazier’s 181 yards on the afternoon came before contact, an average of 8.8 yards per carry.
If you’re into the finer points of o-line play (and I know you are), Georgia’s front is interesting. For one thing, they’re characteristically huge, averaging 325 pounds per man; the runt of the group, center Drew Bobo — Mike’s son — is listed at 305. For another, they’re uncharacteristically healthy. After cycling through multiple lineups over the first half of the season, they’ve rolled out the same starting unit now in 3 consecutive games, with senior Earnest Greene III returning from a nagging back injury to solidify a revolving door at right tackle. His presence has given the Bulldogs the luxury of bringing the “sixth man,” 360-pound freshman Juan Gaston, off the bench, and of mixing and matching lineups over the course of a game. Against Mississippi State, Gaston split reps with Greene at right tackle and with fellow freshman Dontrell Glover at right guard; Glover also split snaps at left guard with Micah Morris. The upshot is a deep group that is coming into its own at the right time, limiting wear and tear, and appears to be capable of weathering future injuries.
Bullying Mississippi State into submission is one thing; doing it to Texas is another. The Longhorns lead the SEC and rank 2nd nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 78 yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry. Only Florida (159 yards on 4.3 per carry) has made any kind of sustained headway; their 3 ranked opponents, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, mostly ran repeatedly into a burnt orange wall. Sacks factor relatively heavily into that output; Texas is tied for 2nd nationally in sacks and 4th in negative yardage as a result. But so does rolling out a front full of guys like Colin Simmons, Ethan Burke, Hero Kanu and Anthony Hill Jr. who grade out just as solidly against the run as they do rushing the passer. The return of rock-solid safety Michael Taaffe from a two-game injury absence nudges the bar that much higher. Before his injury, Taaffe boasted the top PFF grade against the run of any SEC defender.
When Texas has the ball: Can Georgia speed up Arch Manning’s mental clock?
Manning made a brief cameo in last year’s 30-15 loss against Georgia in the regular season, coming on briefly at the end of the first half for a couple of doomed possessions that ended in a punt and a fumble, respectively. He was memorably caught in the aftermath sitting on the sideline alongside starter Quinn Ewers, both of them wearing shell-shocked expressions as UGA took a 20-0 lead into halftime.
The current version of Georgia’s pass rush is nowhere near what it was last year, or most years — the Bulldogs currently rank 122nd nationally and dead last in the SEC with only 11 sacks. What little pressure the Dawgs have managed has come almost exclusively from blitzing inside linebackers, not the d-line. That’s par for the course against Texas: Defenses have come after Manning, who has faced blitzes on an SEC-high 46.8% of his total drop-backs, per PFF, and endured more QB pressures on those snaps (68) than all but 1 other FBS quarterback.
His last time out, against Vanderbilt in Week 10, the solution was to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. Coming off a week in the concussion protocol, Manning embraced the Ewers self-preservation playbook, setting a season-high for attempts behind the line of scrimmage (12) and a season-low for average time to throw (2.42 seconds, per PFF). More than 75% of his 328 passing yards against the Commodores came after the catch — aided by a pitiful tackling performance by the Vandy defense — including a 75-yard chunk on the first snap of the game.
A midseason reversion to Ewers Ball was a little bit ironic given just how eager ‘Horns fans were to trade screens and RPOs for more downfield explosiveness, and just how much of the preseason hype cycle anticipated Manning’s ability to generate it. Steve Sarkisian made the point a few weeks back, conceding that Arch’s deer-in-the-headlights moments in the early going were partly the result of a deliberate plan to stretch the field. Over the first 6 games, a little more than 20% of Manning’s attempts covered 20+ air yards, one of the highest rates in the conference. Over the past 3 games, that number is just 8.5%, among the lowest rates. He was 0-for-3 throwing downfield against Vandy, in what was widely hailed as a redemptive performance.
As reassuring as it was to watch a confident, efficient Manning operating in his comfort zone behind a (finally) healthy o-line, Sarkisian’s promise to “dig deep” into his team’s tendencies and issues during the ensuing off week should include some ideas for reigniting the downfield spark without leaving his franchise quarterback vulnerable. (Not to pick on a freshman, but leaving struggling guard Nick Brooks on the bench would be a good start; the OL looked like a different unit against Vanderbilt without him in the lineup.) The arrow is pointing up, but we have yet to see the complete package.
Wild card: Texas WR/PR Ryan Niblett
Where would the Longhorns be without this guy? A former blue-chip who has switched from offense to defense and back in an effort to get on the field, Niblett has finally made his mark in Year 3 on special teams, emerging as arguably college football’s only clutch punt returner. He iced the Oklahoma game with a 75-yard touchdown return in the 4th quarter; set up 2 of Texas’ 3 scoring drives in regulation at Kentucky with a pair of returns covering 45 and 43 yards, respectively; and completed the comeback at Mississippi State on an improbable, 79-yard return that sent the game to overtime.
Georgia is not in the business of allowing long punt returns, or any punt returns: Long-tenured punter Brett Thorson has allowed only 3 returns this year, and only 18 over his 4-year career; in 2023, opponents didn’t attempt to return a single punt. If there’s anyone who understands the assignment “do not put the ball in No. 21’s hands under any circumstances,” it should be Thorson. Still, if Niblett does get a chance, watch out.
The verdict …
Some good news for the Longhorns: They’re as healthy as you can be this time of year, turning in what may be the first clean injury report since the SEC began mandating them. Some bad news: They’ve yet to win a road game in regulation, heading into a stadium where Georgia has been virtually unbeatable since the pandemic.
There’s also the lingering memory of last year’s meetings, both won by Georgia, the first in fairly dominant fashion. The second, a come-from-behind, 22-19 win in overtime in the SEC Championship Game, was Gunner Stockton‘s first meaningful appearance as the Bulldogs’ quarterbacks after Carson Beck was knocked out of the game on the last play of the first half. Stockton acquitted himself well for an underclassman just getting his feet wet, overseeing 3 extended scoring drives in the second half and the game-winning TD drive in overtime. He’s come into his own as a starter, especially in Georgia’s come-from-behind, shootout wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss, his 2 best games when UGA badly needed them. Stockton enters the weekend ranked 2nd nationally in Total QBR and 3rd in EPA, although not quite as loftily in other categories. All eyes on Saturday night will be on Manning, but it’s just as likely the quarterback they really need to be acquainted with as the postseason approaches is the one on the other side.
Prediction: • Georgia 31 | Texas 24
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Oklahoma at Alabama (-6.5)
What’s more shocking: That Alabama’s ground game is barely functional, or that it … kinda doesn’t seem to matter?
Actually, “barely functional” might be giving the Tide’s performance in last week’s 20-9 win over LSU too much credit. Between them, Bama’s top 2 backs, Daniel Hill and Jamarion Miller, combined for a meager 34 yards and a single first down on 15 carries, managing a long gain of just 7 yards. Only a 17-yard run by QB Ty Simpson (his only positive gain) supplied any spark whatsoever against a Tigers D missing its best player. That was their worst rushing effort of the season, but it was hardly a departure. The Tide have topped out in conference play with 146 yards (including sacks) on 3.8 yards per carry against Vanderbilt. Altogether, they’ve yet to crack 150 or 4.0 per carry against a power-conference opponent, or to come particularly close outside of the win over the Commodores.
There’s the rub: Alabama is still winning — largely on Simpson’s hyper-efficient right arm, and lately with the defense, which is not a vintage Bama unit but does lead the SEC at 18.3 points per game allowed in conference play. Take a coast-to-coast pick-6 in the Tennessee game off the ledger, and Bama’s offense has yet to top 30 points in conference play. But the defense has yet to allow more than 24.
Alabama fans, who have spent most of the past 2 decades watching their ream run the ball more of less at will most of the time, are understandably concerned whether that’s sustainable. Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb may be slightly less concerned: The pattern and output closely tracks with their 2023 Washington team that went 14-0 en route to the CFP Championship Game, which averaged just 122.2 yards per game on 4.3 per carry against Power 5 opponents; excluding one monster outlier against USC, that number plummeted to just 106.0 ypg. In the end, the Huskies managed just 46 yards in their eventual CFP title game loss to Michigan, on just 2.3 per carry. But they made it to the title game.
There’s more than one way to generate the equivalent of a viable ground game without actually moving bodies between the tackles, whether it’s via the quick passing game or a mobile quarterback, a la Jalen Milroe, Bama’s leading rusher in 2024 even after subtracting negative yardage for sacks. Simpson is not a statue, but he’s certainly no Milroe, either. He is a Heisman favorite, however. The less the Tide trust the backs to keep the sticks moving, the more pressure that continues to put on Simpson to make good decisions and accurate throws every time. So far, he’s been right enough and accurate enough to keep them getting by. At some point, it’s gotta be nice to know you have the option of simply lining up and pounding out a first down when you need one.
Prediction: • Alabama 28 | Oklahoma 20
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South Carolina at Texas A&M (-19.5)
It’s a testament to just how impressive LaNorris Sellers was at the end of the 2024 regular season that, a year later, he remains a fixture of both mock drafts and transfer portal speculation despite exhibiting little more than a whiff of that potential in 2025. It’s also a testament to just how little help he’s had from his surrounding cast, especially an undermanned, injury-plagued offensive line. Sellers has been under as much duress this season as any quarterback in America: He’s faced pressure on an SEC-worst 44.7% of his total drop-backs, per PFF, and has taken an FBS-worst 33 sacks. Half of those sacks have come in South Carolina’s 3 SEC road losses at Missouri, LSU and Ole Miss alone. At one point, an analytics company estimated he covered a total distance of nearly 900 yards in the Gamecocks’ midseason loss in Baton Rouge, a game in which he officially finished with 19 yards rushing.
Obviously, that does not bode well opposite a Texas A&M pass rush tied for the national lead in sacks. The Aggies remember Sellers well from last year’s meeting in Columbia, a 44-20 upset that served as a catalyst for Carolina’s November surge. Sellers accounted for 350 total yards and 3 touchdowns in that game in a breakout performance. If there’s any trace of that guy left in him, he’s running out of time to summon it to the surface before he has some very big decisions to make about his future.
Prediction: Texas A&M 32 | • South Carolina 17
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Florida at Ole Miss (-14.5)
Ole Miss can effectively sew up a Playoff spot with a win over Florida, a sentence that might inspire a minor bout of PTSD for the Rebels. They were in a similar position at this point on the calendar last year, when they choked away an all-but-assured CFP ticket in a 24-17 loss in Gainesville that’s haunted them ever since. At least it’s possible to make some sense of that flop in hindsight: It came on the road, against a rejuvenated Florida team coming off a season-salvaging upset over LSU, in a game that Ole Miss dominated statistically except for going 0-for-3 in the red zone. This time around, blowing it at home against the zombie corpse version of the Gators – a 3-6 outfit that has already fired its head coach and, based on last week’s 38-7 debacle at Kentucky, apparently packed it in for the season – would be inexcusable under any circumstances.
Prediction: • Ole Miss 34 | Florida 16
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Mississippi State at Missouri (-7.5)
If you find an over/under on the number of pass attempts in this game by Missouri QB Matt Zollers, take the under. Zollers seriously struggled last week in his first career start against Texas A&M, finishing 3-for-15 on attempts beyond the line of scrimmage. (Not for nothing, all 3 completions went to fellow freshman/emerging dude Donovan Olugbode, and PFF filed all three in the “contested” column.) Meanwhile, despite diminishing returns over the past month, Mizzou still boasts the SEC’s top rushing offense for the season, as well as the conference’s leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy. Hardy and Jamal Roberts both went over 100 yards on the ground in the loss to A&M, on a combined 7.3 yards per carry. Hardy joined Mizzou’s list of 1,000-yard rushers. That was against one of the league’s better rushing defenses, in a game the Tigers trailed throughout. Against the league’s worst rushing defense on Saturday, there is no reason to put the ball in the air except as a last resort.
Unlike Missouri, where Zollers is the last scholarship quarterback left standing, if Mississippi State decides to tap a rookie behind center it will be by choice. Coach Jeff Lebby is going out of his to avoid framing it that way, insisting earlier this week that sixth-year vet Blake Shapen remains the starter — as long as he’s “truly healthy.” Shapen has exited each of the Bulldogs’ last two games against Arkansas and Georgia following big hits; he ultimately returned to lead a fourth-quarter rally in Fayetteville in Week 10, but remained on the sideline last week with the score already well out of hand. In both cases, touted freshman backup Kamario Taylor looked the part off the bench, accounting for 2 touchdowns in Shapen’s absence against the Hogs (one rushing, one passing) and all 3 of State’s touchdowns against the Dogs (all rushing). Taylor is a significantly more dynamic athlete than Shapen and wields a bigger arm, connecting on the Bulldogs’ longest downfield completion in both games. As far as the locals are concerned, his time is now.
But only if Lebby is willing to start the clock. As of midweek, Shapen was listed as “probable” on the initial injury report, meaning he will almost certainly be available. Regardless of whether that meets the “truly healthy” standard Lebby set at the beginning of the week, it does give him cover to give the freshman the nod on Saturday night without technically calling it a benching. If that’s what he needs to flip the switch, State fans will take it.
Prediction: Missouri 27 | • Mississippi State 23
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Arkansas at LSU (-5.5)
The Battle for the Boot is a rare collision of interim head coaches on both sidelines. Which side wants it less?
Arkansas, at least, has been resigned to its limbo state since September, and has remained reasonably competitive in the meantime under Bobby Petrino; the Razorbacks are 0-4 on Petrino’s watch, but those losses have come by a combined 18 points, and Arkansas led in the 4th quarter in each of the past 2. The Hogs are still capable of scoring 30 points at a reliable clip behind dual-threat QB Taylen Green, even while just as reliably giving up 35. LSU, on the other hand, looked disheveled and disinterested offensively in last week’s loss at Alabama, the Tigers’ first outing under Frank Wilson, and may be without their best player, junior LB Whit Weeks, for the 4th consecutive game. (Weeks remains questionable with a nagging ankle injury.) Wilson has already promised a musical-chairs approach at quarterback between the struggling Garrett Nussmeier and backup Michael Van Buren. And whatever home-field advantage Tiger Stadium usually offers will not be in effect for a meaningless game slated for an 11:45 am kickoff. If anything, the energy surrounding the program is so dysfunctional right now it’s just as likely to work against them.
Prediction: • Arkansas 29 | LSU 26
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New Mexico State at Tennessee (-40.5)
Nothing to see here. Tennessee is 18-1 in regular-season nonconference games under Josh Heupel, outscoring opponents on average by 40 points per game. The lone defeat came in Heupel’s second game as head coach, a 41-34 loss against Pittsburgh in September 2021 in which Tennessee lost 3 fumbles. (That was also the game in which Hendon Hooker temporarily replaced an injured Joe Milton III at quarterback, and then never gave the job back.) Pitt was also on the other side of the Vols’ narrowest nonconference win in that span, an overtime thriller the following year. Their closest call since: A 30-13 decision over Austin Peay in September 2023. New Mexico State, which has lost 6 of its past 7, is no threat to claim to bump the Governors from their perch. The only drama is whether Joey Aguilar (2,737 yards) puts it in the air enough to become Tennessee’s next 3,000-yard passer.
Prediction: Tennessee 48 | • New Mexico State 13
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Tennessee Tech at Kentucky (n/a)
Kentucky (4-5) is counting on a routine win Saturday to move one step closer to bowl eligibility, and to punting (again) on a decision about Mark Stoops‘ future. Tennessee Tech has bigger fish to fry. At 10-0, the Golden Eagles – perennial also-rans in the Ohio Valley Conference – are enjoying probably the best season in school history. Out of nowhere, they’ve outscored opponents by nearly 30 points per game while climbing to no. 6 in the FCS rankings. They’re on the brink of claiming their first outright conference title since 1972. After that, it will be on to the FCS playoffs for the first time since a one-and-done exit in 2011, Tech’s only previous appearance. This is a program where no head coach has left with a winning record in more than 40 years. Stunning the 12th-place team in the SEC to preserve the zero in the loss column would be just a cherry on top.
Prediction: Kentucky 31 | Tennessee Tech 14
Off this week: Auburn, Vanderbilt
Scoreboard
Week 11 record: 6-0 straight-up | 4-1 vs. spread
Season record: 83-17 straight-up | 44-50 vs. spread
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
