SEC QB Rankings, Week 11: Arch Manning takes the next step by pulling back on the throttle
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama
There’s a lot of football left, but as it stands Simpson’s Heisman odds suggest he is on track for an invitation to New York as a Heisman finalist. So is Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, who originally signed with Alabama and spent about 15 minutes in Tuscaloosa in January 2024 before Nick Saban‘s retirement gave him second thoughts. The two never actually stepped on the practice field together, much less competed for reps. Both are in ideal situations that they themselves have elevated and that have elevated them. Still, as they begin to separate from the pack, who can resist contemplating a little alternate history: What if Sayin had stayed?
Would he still be biding his time as Simpson’s understudy in his second year on campus? A Heisman candidate backed up by a future Heisman candidate would certainly not be unheard of at Bama, although notably the late Saban-era line of succession from Jalen Hurts through Bryce Young predated the portal era. Or, given a clean slate under a coaching staff that didn’t recruit either of them, would Sayin’s talent have burned too brightly to keep under wraps, relegating Simpson to the portal instead? Based on Sayin’s over-the-top performance in the Buckeyes’ win over Penn State, it’s hard to argue there’s any quarterback in the college game right now who could fend him off — even Simpson, who has aced the test against a significantly stiffer schedule since the Tide’s opening-day debacle at Florida State. Then again, if Simpson had the luxury of going months at a time without facing a ranked opponent while throwing to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, maybe he’d look undeniable, too. He’s looking just fine as it is throwing to Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. The Heisman vote is one thing, but if it were to come down to a head-to-head postseason collision to settle the score, would anyone object to that?
Last week: 1⬌
2. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
The Commodores’ success is based on taking care of the ball, controlling the clock, playing with a lead, and generally keeping Pavia out of must-throw situations. Against Texas, they failed on all counts, and quickly: Pavia fumbled on the opening series, faced a 17-0 hole in the first quarter, and spent the rest of the afternoon in comeback mode, enduring a career-high 6 sacks along the way. Vanderbilt trailed 34-10 at the end of the 3rd, its largest deficit at any point in Pavia’s 22 games as QB1.
So the fact that it still ultimately came down to a failed onside kick that very nearly went Vandy’s way must be a testament to something. Back against the wall, Pavia led 3 4th-quarter touchdown drives — one of which consisted of a single play vs. busted coverage — finishing with career highs for drop-backs (49), attempts (38), completions (27) and passing yards (365) while salvaging just enough respectability in defeat to keep the ‘Dores from being laughed out of the Playoff race. If they’d managed to pounce on the decisive onside kick before the ball skittered out of bounds, there was very little doubt by that point that Pavia would have put the kicker in position to send the game to overtime and kept on going from there. The stakes are too high for moral victories, but then, any sentence invoking high stakes for Vanderbilt football after the clocks change kinda speaks for itself.
Last week: 2⬆
3. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
I respected Stockton’s decision to take a knee at the 1-yard line at the end of the Bulldogs’ 24-20 win over Florida rather than score a walk-in touchdown that would have covered the 7.5-point spread. I really did. Am I salty that it prevented my pregame prediction of a 31-20 final score from hitting on the nose? Of course not! I don’t bet money, and anyway, I nailed the 38-35 final score in Mississippi State’s win over Arkansas, so my ego was sated. I would never yell futilely at the television over something so petty as a point spread. I was yelling “sportsmanship!” That’s all.
• Last week: 3⬇
4. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
The tallest remaining hurdles standing between A&M and a perfect regular season are both on the road, at Missouri and Texas, and the Aggies certainly don’t need to be reminded again about last year’s November crash. But whatever lingering doubts they might have had about Reed’s ability to finish the job, they’re receding by the week. For one thing, there’s the simple fact that he’s healthy and entrenched, nothing to take for granted at a program that hasn’t had an opening-day starter make it this far into a season without being injured or benched since Kellen Mond in 2020. For another, he’s been money on the road: Reed’s 3 best games of the season per Total QBR have come in wins at Notre Dame, Arkansas and LSU, in which he’s accounted for 1,042 total yards and 10 touchdowns. A&M scored 40+ points in each of those games – and in the trips to South Bend and Fayetteville, needed every one of them.
• Last week: 5⬆
5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
Chambliss brings a lot to the table as a dual-threat, but his production as a passer has flat-lined in conference play. In Ole Miss’ past 4 SEC games (vs. LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma and South Carolina), he’s mostly treaded water, completing just 53.6% of his attempts while turning in a subpar 123.2 passer rating. Not that the Rebels are complaining with a 3-1 record in those games and a clear path to the Playoff in front of them. Looking ahead to the their championship aspirations, though, his ceiling against Playoff-caliber competition must be among their top concerns.
• Last week: 4⬇
6. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee
By most accounts, Tennessee “won” the “trade” that resulted in Aguilar replacing Nico Iamaleava as QB1. Statistically, Aguilar has been a clear upgrade. He’s already thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Iamaleava in 2024 on fewer attempts, posting significantly better ratings in terms of both efficiency and Total QBR. He has been vastly more efficient throwing downfield. As a team, the Vols’ scoring average in SEC play has improved by 11 points per game. But what Aguilar has given the Vols in explosiveness, he has cost them dearly with his penchant for killer turnovers.
Aguilar’s reckless streak was a well-documented red flag coming into the season based on his FBS-worst 14 interceptions in 2024 at Appalachian State. So the prophecy has come to pass: In Tennessee’s 3 biggest games — losses to Georgia in September, Alabama in October and Oklahoma on Saturday night — he has thrown 5 INTs; that includes a pair of picks in an overtime loss to the Bulldogs and a crucial, 99-yard pick-6 at Bama that put the Vols behind the 8-ball for the rest of the night in an eventual 37-20 defeat. In Saturday’s must-win date against the Sooners, Aguilar was responsible for 3 giveaways in rapid succession in the first half, all of which led to OU points in a game it initially looked like Tennessee might run away with. In addition to 2 interceptions, he was also victimized on the single biggest swing play of the night, a strip sack that turned a burgeoning scoring opportunity into seven points going the other way.
All defensive and special teams touchdowns represent a dramatic turn of events, but in a de facto Playoff elimination game ultimately decided by 6 points, this one may go down as the turning point in both teams’ seasons. Per the comprehensive box score at gameonpaper.com, R Mason Thomas’ epic, awkward journey to the end zone represented a whopping 11.7-point swing in Extra Points Added, making it not just the most pivotal play in Oklahoma’s eventual win, but the most pivotal play per EPA in any SEC game to date this season. The play it displaced from the top of the list: Alabama’s field-flipping pick-six off Aguilar in Week 8, which represented an 11.3-point swing. No other play has registered in the double digits.
• Last week: 6⬌
7. Taylen Green, Arkansas
Another week, another high-flying defeat for the Razorbacks, this time in a 38-35 decision against Mississippi State in which the Hogs were penalized 18 times for an astonishing 193 yards. For the season, Arkansas has averaged more points in its 5 conference losses (33.4) than all but 2 of this week’s ranked SEC teams have averaged in their conference wins. And those 2 teams, Tennessee and Texas A&M, only come out ahead by virtue of having been in shootouts against Arkansas!
• Last week: 7⬌
8. Arch Manning, Texas
By now, we all have a clear mental image of Arch at his worst: Feet planted, patting the ball a beat too long, scanning futilely downfield until the last possible moment before panicking in the face of oncoming rushers. Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt might have been our first glimpse of Arch — the current, work-in-progress version, anyway — at his best: Well-protected and determined to stay that way by treating the ball like a live grenade. Coming off a week in the concussion protocol, Manning embraced the Quinn Ewers self-preservation playbook, setting a season-high for attempts behind the line of scrimmage (12) and a season-low for average time to throw (2.42 seconds, per PFF). More than three-fourths of his 328 passing yards against the Commodores came after the catch, including a 75-yard chunk on the first snap of the game.
A midseason reversion to Ewers Ball is a little bit ironic given just how eager ‘Horns fans were to trade screens and RPOs for more downfield explosiveness, and just how much of the preseason hype cycle anticipated Manning’s ability to generate it. Steve Sarkisian made the point himself a few weeks back, conceding that Arch’s deer-in-the-headlights moments in the early going were partly the result of a deliberate plan to stretch the field. Over the first 6 games, a little more than 20% of Manning’s attempts covered 20+ air yards, one of the highest rates in the conference. Over the past 3 games, that number is just 8.5%, among the lowest rates. He was 0-for-3 throwing downfield against Vandy, in what was widely hailed as a redemptive performance.
While we’re on the subject of YAC, I’d be remiss here if I didn’t mention an atrocious tackling-in-space effort by Vanderbilt’s defense. PFF cited the ‘Dores for 20 missed tackles, a huge but very believable number if you watched the game, with half of those demerits assigned to just 2 individuals. Looking ahead, Texas can’t count on anywhere near as much free real estate in its upcoming dates against Georgia and Texas A&M, both must-wins to keep the ‘Horns’ CFP hopes alive. As reassuring as it was to watch a confident, efficient Manning operating in his comfort zone behind a (finally) healthy o-line, Sarkisian’s promise to “dig deep” into his team’s tendencies and issues during the off week should include some ideas for reigniting the downfield spark without leaving his franchise quarterback vulnerable. (Not to pick on a freshman, but leaving struggling guard Nick Brooks on the bench would be a good start; the OL looked like a different unit on Saturday without him in the lineup.) The arrow is pointing up, but we have yet to see the complete package.
• Last week: 12⬆
9. John Mateer, Oklahoma
Mateer was significantly better as a runner than as a passer in the Sooners’ season-salvaging win at Tennessee, churning out a season-high 93 yards on the ground (excluding sacks) on 6.2 per carry. Between Mateer, freshman Tory Blaylock, and chunky sophomore Xavier Robinson, the Sooners have managed to run the ball effectively in 3 consecutive games after a couple of dismal outings on the ground in their first 2 SEC games against Auburn and Texas. A good thing, too, because Mateer continued to struggle pushing the ball downfield since rushing back from hand surgery. Per PFF, he was 1-for-3 on attempts of 20+ air yards against the Vols, and is just 2-for-17 in 4 games since his return to the lineup.
• Last week: 8⬇
10. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Unfortunately, the Tigers cannot hit the “sim to the end of the season” button and advance directly to the announcement of a new head coach. In the meantime, interim head coach Frank Wilson has made it plain that Nussmeier’s job is safe, at least for this weekend’s anticlimactic trip to Alabama. But he also said this week that coaches will “look at the opportunities” to get backup Michael Van Buren Jr. involved, as well, which frankly would suit LSU fans just fine. Even if it costs Nussmeier a chance to throw for 3,000 yards again.
Van Buren has barely played this season after arriving from Mississippi State, where he started 8 games as a true freshman in 2024. He was last seen in Week 9 leading a token garbage-time touchdown drive against Texas A&M in a nearly empty Tiger Stadium. If Van Buren has designs on competing for the starting job in ’26, a live audition down the stretch could advance his cause, or at least make it clear enough that he doesn’t have one to given him enough time to find greener pastures. Nussmeier, of course, is auditioning for the NFL, where he’s still considered a viable project in spite of, well, (gestures broadly). But the moment that status starts to look wobbly, they are running out of reasons not to break the glass in case of emergency.
• Last week: 10⬌
11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
There have been plenty of gifted QBs on bad teams, many of whom have gone on to long and productive careers at the next level. But rarely has the gap between the potential behind center and the grim reality of the surrounding cast been as wide at this level as it is right now at South Carolina. Say what you will about Sellers’ development at this stage of his career, or lack thereof. He is flawed. In the context of the Gamecocks’ offense, though, how can you say anything at all? If he was living up to his enormous gifts, how different would it look than it actually does on a unit this bereft? With all of the vagaries involved in projecting quarterbacks to the next level even in the best of circumstances, how does a pro scout even approach this situation? Every Gamecocks game is a ritual trial by fire that leaves Sellers fleeing for his life.
That was 1 of 6 sacks on Saturday night for Ole Miss, raising Sellers’ total to an SEC-worst 33 sacks for the season on a league-worst 44.7% pressure rate. Somebody’s walking the plank after an effort like that, and since they already fired the offensive line coach a few weeks back it was offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s turn to take the plunge on Sunday. He leaves behind an attack that ranks dead last in the SEC in total offense, scoring offense, rushing offense (due largely to negative yardage on sacks), yards per play and first downs.
Shane Beamer is running out of other people to sacrifice. As badly as he wants people to stop asking him about the head-coaching vacancy at his alma mater, Virginia Tech, the fact is that as the losses and frustration mount, the speculation that Beamer will decide to walk while the door is open only not going away. Either way, Sellers owes it to himself to find a situation in 2026 that gives him a chance.
• Last week: 9⬇
12. DJ Lagway, Florida
Lagway’s surrounding cast is not nearly as dire as Sellers’ at full strength, but he is in a similarly tenuous situation in Gainesville as a stagnant sophomore campaign limps toward the finish line. Through 8 games, he has delivered exactly 1 performance that lived up to the hype, finishing with a stellar 94.2 QBR rating in the Gators’ 29-21 win over Texas in Week 6. In 5 their other 6 games vs. FBS opponents, he has turned in a rating in the 50s, including a 54.5 in Saturday’s loss to Georgia; in the 6th, a 26-7 loss at Miami in Week 4, he bottomed out with a 25.6. His most talented receiver, freshman Dallas Wilson, is on the shelf for the rest of the season due to a foot injury, and leading receiver Vernell Brown III remains questionable after missing the UGA game with a shoulder injury. The next coaching staff has to decide for itself how much of the current lineup is worth salvaging, but even the locals are beginning to wonder if Lagway would be better off hitting reset somewhere else in Year 3.
• Last week: 11⬇
13. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
Shapen left the Bulldogs’ eventual win at Arkansas early in the 3rd quarter to be evaluated for a potential concussion. Shortly after, I wrote in my notes “Kamario Taylor is the quarterback” after the touted freshman came off the bench to account for 95 total yards and 2 touchdowns – 1 rushing, 1 passing – in a span of 15 plays. I’ve seen enough!
I underlined the note after Shapen returned to the game, only to immediately throw an tip-drill interception that caromed of his receiver’s hands on his first attempt; Arkansas promptly converted the pick into a touchdown, extending its lead to 35-21 in the kind of game where every defensive stop comes at a premium.
Jeff Lebby, however, wasn’t so eager to pull the plug on his sixth-year starter, and he was vindicated: Shapen remained in the game to lead 3 4th-quarter scoring drives while the defense repeatedly turned the Hogs back to snap Mississippi State’s 16-game SEC losing streak, 38-35. Shapen, awarded a game ball in the aftermath, gave the ball to Taylor in recognition of his service, but will not be forfeiting his status atop the depth chart heading into this weekend’s home date with Georgia. We’ll see how long the status quo holds before the cowbells clang for the kid.
• Last week: 13⬌
14. Cutter Boley, Kentucky
One of my favorite running subplots of the season is Kentucky’s’ epic weekly struggle to complete a downfield pass. I will give them this: They haven’t stopped trying. Boley was 0-for-5 on attempts of 20+ air yards Saturday in the Wildcats’ first SEC win, an unwatchable, 10-3 slog over Auburn featuring as many punts as points. For the season, he and opening-day starter Zach Calzada are an incredible 6/46 throwing deep, a combined completion percentage of 13 percent.
• Last week: 14⬌
15. Jackson Arnold or Ashton Daniels, Auburn
Daniels went most of the way in the Tigers’ loss to Kentucky, briefly yielding to Arnold in the 4th quarter before returning to oversee the emblematic drive of Auburn’s season: A last-gasp, 15-play march that sputtered out at midfield. Thus ended Hugh Freeze‘s doomed tenure as head coach, on a run of seven consecutive quarters without an offensive touchdown.Â
Regardless of who starts or how they divvy up reps down the stretch – somebody still has to take the field in the Iron Bowl – all eyes now are on the heir apparent, 5-star freshman Deuce Knight, who has yet to take a meaningful snap but will almost certainly be the only scholarship quarterback the next coaching staff makes any effort to retain. After wide receiver Cam Coleman, Knight arguably has the biggest target on his back of any potential transfer on the roster. If it’s even possible at this point to keep them both, the cost likely just went way up.
• Last week: 15⬌
16. Matt Zollers, Missouri
Mizzou is cautiously optimistic about Beau Pribula‘s recovery from what initially looked like a season-ending ankle injury. If he does play again in 2025, though, it won’t be in this weekend’s upset bid against Texas A&M. Instead, the task of keeping the Tigers’ dwindling Playoff hopes alive falls to a true freshman, Zollers, in his first career start. Ideally, Zollers would be firmly on the redshirt track right now rather than holding the fate of a once-promising season in his hands against a top-5 opponent. (Recall that the original QB2, redshirt junior Sam Horn, suffered a season-ending injury in the opener, elevating Zollers into the role.) But as fledgling QBs facing daunting circumstances go, well, at least he has Ahmad Hardy to hand off to.
• Last week: 16⬌
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
