Setting realistic expectations for every first-year power conference head coach

In 2025, we’ll see 5 first-year head coaches at power conference programs and a sixth take over on an interim basis. Though a relatively small crop of new coaches, there’s some real star power in the class, led by North Carolina head coach and Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick.

What should we expect from each? Let’s take a look.

North Carolina Tar Heels — Bill Belichick

Record last season: 6-7

If someone tells you they know what North Carolina will be in Year 1 under Bill Belichick, question everything. None of us have any idea what this team will be. On one hand, you have the greatest coach in the history of the NFL taking over a program that finds itself in a manageable league. On the other, Bill Belichick has never coached a down of college football and the difference between where he was and where he now finds himself is night and day. Much has been made about the talent (or perceived lack thereof) Belichick has to work with on the UNC roster, but even then, we don’t know what this group will look like because it hasn’t been together. Eight transfers were brought in along the offensive line. The quarterback is a transfer recruit. The defense returns only 3 of the 16 defenders who played at least 200 snaps last season.  

We might see inverse Carolina in 2025, relative to what the Heels were under Mack Brown. Under the previous regime, Carolina was a good-to-great offense bogged down by a disaster of a defense. Belichick, known for his defensive wizardry, brought in his son, Steve, to run the Carolina defense after what was a pretty good season at Washington. In his lone season with UW, the younger Belichick helped the defense to a 37th-place finish in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. North Carolina, for reference, ranked 77th. Carolina has a middling schedule, which means 6 wins should be in play. 

Only 3 ACC teams won 6 conference games last fall. Carolina only plays one of them. And 4 ACC teams lost 6 conference games last fall. Carolina plays 3 of them. ESPN’s FPI projects 6.7 wins for Belichick in Year 1. Bill Connelly’s SP+ model projects 6.6. Carolina’s activity in the transfer portal evoked memories of Deion Sanders’ first Colorado class, but there’s an important distinction that needs to be made between what Sanders did and what Belichick is attempting.

Sanders brought Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders with him to Boulder. Belichick might have a quarterback who is just as effective (if not more…) but there are no Hunter-level talents on this roster. And Colorado lost 8 of its last 9 in Sanders’ first season.

I like Gio Lopez, who threw for 2,559 yards and 18 touchdowns while rushing for 463 yards and 7 scores as a redshirt freshman last season at South Alabama. According to Game on Paper, Lopez averaged a higher EPA per dropback than Sanders last fall. 

The expectation in Chapel Hill should be that Carolina is competitive and more buttoned up under Belichick. The Tar Heels were 118th in penalties per game last season, gave up 70 points in a game, and mustered only 14 points in a bowl loss to UConn. They were all over the map. 

They might not be good, but they need to be cleaner. 

Realistic expectation: 5 to 7 wins

RELATED: At BetMGM, the Carolina win total is set at 7.5 with -165 odds on the under. 

West Virginia Mountaineers — Rich Rodriguez

Record last season: 6-7

Rich Rodriguez returned to the head coaching sphere after 4 years and led Jacksonville State to 18 wins in its first 2 seasons at the FBS level. That’s no small feat. His first season with the Gamecocks, which was also the program’s final year at the FCS level, featured a 9-2 record. He left the program with a 27-10 overall record and 2 conference titles in 3 years. His spread option was deadly at Jax State, with quarterback Tyler Huff and tailback Tre Stewart both topping 1,300 yards on the ground last season. Huff also threw for 2,543 yards to help pilot what was a top-20 offense by adjusted EPA per play.  

Now, Rodriguez takes over a West Virginia team that could just never get started under Neal Brown. The Mountaineers were absolutely awful defensively, giving up at least 40 4 times last season and ranking 129th out of 134 teams in adjusted EPA per play allowed. Quarterback Garrett Greene struggled mightily after entering the season with some buzz in Big 12 circles. 

As has become the norm with regime flips, this is a complete and comprehensive roster makeover. More than 40 WVU players left via the portal. More than 50 transfer players arrived via the portal. West Virginia could have close to 20 starters between the 2 sides of the ball who weren’t on the team last year. 

That means the floor is really low, but the ceiling is a bit unknown. Rodriguez’s rushing attack makes his teams hard to play against, and he made a shrewd defensive coordinator hire, luring Zac Alley away from Oklahoma to rejoin his staff. Alley has been a star everywhere, including at Jax State under Rodriguez in 2023. The Mountaineers also pulled former AAC Defensive Player of the Year Jimmori Robinson (10.5 sacks) away from UTSA.

Holding onto running back Jahiem White was also a win. White ran for 844 yards and 7 scores last season. SMU’s Jaylan Knighton joins the room 2 years removed from a 745-yard, 7-score campaign. And the portal brought 2 smaller-school 1,000-yard rushers (Catawba’s L.J. Turner, Ferris State’s Kannon Katzer, and Northern Iowa’s Tye Edwards) to campus.

There’s a version of this team that wears the leather off the ball on offense, makes strides on defense, and becomes a pain in the butt to play against. The Big 12 has a dearth of quality teams, but it doesn’t necessarily have an elite team. That could lend itself to a bowl run if things click into place for West Virginia. But it could also mean something like 4-8 or 5-7 is on the table if the quarterback spot is a mess again or the defense takes some time to turn things around.

Realistic expectation: 5 to 6 wins

UCF Knights — Scott Frost

Record last season: 4-8

In their first 2 seasons under Gus Malzahn, the Knights won 18 games. Then UCF moved to the Big 12 and consistently found a way to lose games. In 2023, UCF went 6-7 with 3 losses coming by a total of 4 points. Last season, they fell apart. After escaping TCU with a 35-24 win on Sept. 14, UCF lost 8 of its last 9. It suffered 3 more defeats in 1-score games to bring Malzahn’s record to 3-6 in games decided by 7 points or less since the start of 2023. 

UCF was a 6-win team with an 8-win point differential in 2023, signaling a potential boom in 2024. Then it was a 4-win team with a 7-win point differential in 2024, signaling a potential boom in 2025. 

So what did the Knights do? They hired Scott Frost, who went 5-22 in 1-score games across 5 seasons at Nebraska before being jettisoned from Lincoln. 

Frost was out of coaching for 2 years after being fired by his alma mater. He returned as an analyst for the L.A. Rams in 2024 , then got the call to return to Orlando last December. And when Frost got in front of a room full of reporters at Big 12 Media Days last month, he validated fears that neither his failures at Nebraska nor his time away did anything to change his perspective. 

Don’t take the “wrong job,” Frost said of what lessons Nebraska taught him. Hopefully, at Central Florida, he won’t onside kick in the second half up 11. Hopefully, at Central Florida, he won’t thumb his nose at a Joe Burrow-level talent in the transfer portal. Hopefully, at Central Florida, the calamitous string of bad decisions won’t find him again. Hopefully, at Central Florida, defensive coordinator Alex Grinch won’t cause as many headaches for his new boss as he did for Lincoln Riley. 

There’s talent on the UCF roster. Frost brought electric Indiana quarterback Tayven Jackson in along with some big-play receivers and a tailback who averaged north of 6 yards per carry for Western Michigan last season. But there’s a ton of newness. When Malzahn left, he set the stage for more than 30 players to hit the portal, 11 of whom started games last season. 

UCF is last in the Big 12 in returning production and Frost’s offense has next to nothing in terms of proven talent. Grinch’s defense has a ton of transfers and some intriguing options on the edge, but Grinch’s defensive shortcomings have never had anything to do with available talent. 

In the Bounce House next fall, we’ll see 2 coaches who are fighting to prove they have learned from highly-public failures. Grinch was frequently admonished as the reason why Riley’s Oklahoma and USC teams never did anything in the College Football Playoff. Frost’s Nebraska tenure is what it is. In what looks like a Year 0 at UCF, they need to show those mistakes are in the past.

Realistic expectation: 4-6 wins

Purdue Boilermakers — Barry Odom

Record last season: 1-11

One could make the argument Purdue was the worst team in college football last season. Kent State probably takes that title, but it’s close. 

Here’s the résumé: 

• 133rd in net adjusted EPA per play
• 119th in net success rate
• 125th in net yards per play
• 133rd in net scoring

And Purdue had some sought-after talent that hit the transfer portal once the season ended. Safety Dillon Thieneman is expected to start for Oregon. Tight end Max Klare is expected to start for Ohio State. Defensive end Will Heldt became the first-ever transfer portal signing for Dabo Swinney at Clemson. 

Barry Odom led UNLV to unprecedented success, but now he inherits a deep rebuild in West Lafayette. According to Bill Connelly’s tracking, Purdue ranks 108th in returning production. More than 50 players left via the transfer portal and Odom responded in kind with more than 50 newcomers. 

Known commodities followed Odom from UNLV to Purdue like tackle Jalen St. John, tight end Christian Moore, edge Mani Powell, and defensive back Tony Grimes. They’ll help in the locker room. First-team All-MAC defensive end CJ Nunnally IV joined the program to give Odom a potential difference-maker on the edge. Outside of that, Purdue has a ton of players who fall into one of two camps: once-heralded recruits dropping down a level after spending time as a backup, or productive players at a lower level making the step up in class. Purdue’s recruiting doesn’t come close to its Big Ten peers and the Boilermakers face a ton of heavy-hitters in 2025. 

Odom has games against USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State on the schedule. We can probably just chalk up 5 losses right off the bat. Games against Ball State and SIU to begin the season could give Purdue some confidence. A trip to Northwestern offers a chance at a conference road win. It’s hard to find much else here. BetMGM has the win total set at 3.5 and that feels right on the money.

But even that would be an improvement over last season. Baby steps. 

Realistic expectation: 3 wins 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons — Jake Dickert

Record last season: 4-8

It is remarkable to think about Jake Dickert’s path to Winston-Salem. From 2007 to 2016, Dickert bounced around between the Dakota state schools, Southeast Missouri State, and Minnesota State. He coached the defense at Wyoming before getting the DC job at Washington State in 2020. Then, because his head coach refused the COVID vaccine in 2021, Dickert was given the interim head coaching title. He coached Cam Ward for 2 seasons and John Mateer for 1, engineering an 8-win campaign in 2024. But because the Pac-12 fell apart, Dickert left Wazzu for more stability. 

Dickert left an 8-win team for Wake Forest for more stability. 

But the last 2 seasons for Wake Forest — a pair of 4-8 campaigns — bury the lede a bit. From 2006-22, Wake Forest won at least 8 games in a season 7 times. Dave Clawson led an 11-win resurgence in 2021. There’s a path to good seasons in the ACC even if you’re just average.  

The question for Dickert in 2025 is whether his team is even that. And, like every other team on this list, it’s hard to say because of how comprehensive the roster turnover was. The Demon Deacons could have as many as 10 new starters on offense. They could have 9 new starters on defense. Dickert held onto thousand-yard running back Demond Claiborne and hundred-tackle safety Nick Anderson.

Wake Forest will have either Robby Ashford or Deshawn Purdie at quarterback. Ashford hasn’t played a prominent role in an offense since 2022, when he completed 49% of his passes and threw 7 picks and took 24 sacks at Auburn. Purdie completed 50% of his passes with 6 picks and 24 sacks at Charlotte last season, finishing with a 29.5 Total QBR. 

Fortunately, Wake Forest has a more-than-manageable nonconference schedule with games against Kennesaw State, Western Carolina, Oregon State, and Delaware. Maybe they shock one of the North Carolina teams at home or beat Virginia on the road. This will likely take some time, though.

Realistic expectation: 4 to 5 wins

Stanford Cardinal — Frank Reich (interim) 

Record last season: 3-9

You might be asking if the Stanford football program is dead. The Cardinal won 12 games in 2015, 10 games in 2016, and then 9 games apiece in 2017 and 2018. Excluding the 6-game COVID season in 2020, Stanford has averaged 3.2 wins in the 5 full seasons since. The Cardinal have won just 3 games in each of the last 4 seasons. 

David Shaw stepped aside. Troy Taylor got the boot after concerns arose during investigations into the way he conducted himself. Program legend Andrew Luck, back as the program’s general manager, has promised to restore the brand and he tapped Frank Reich in April to serve as the interim coach this season. 

Reich coached Luck in 2018 and the 2 are said to have a wonderful relationship. There won’t be any awkwardness around the coaching search. Both sides made it clear from the get-go that this is a 1-year endeavor while Stanford searches for the long-term solution. 

That wouldn’t likely be Reich even if he was in the running. He’s the only NFL head coach since the 1970 merger to be fired by a team in back-to-back seasons. The Colts dismissed him in 2022 and the Carolina Panthers moved on after a 1-10 start to the 2023 season. 

Stanford is actually top-30 in returning production, according to Connelly’s tracking, but the playmakers are all gone. David Bailey, the team’s top defender, left for the Texas Tech bag. Top receivers Eric Ayomanor and Emmett Mosley V both left. Stanford lost more than it added in the portal, a tool that has routinely been unavailable to the program. 

The Cardinal play BYU (on the road) and Notre Dame in the nonconference. They have road games at SMU and Miami. The schedule could be worse, but the bottom line probably won’t get much better in what is very clearly a transition season for Stanford.

Realistic expectation: 3 to 4 wins