What Smart Money Says About Week 0: Analyzing Kalshi and Polymarket CFB Odds
By Kevin Wolff
Published:
Another exciting season of College Football is upon us, as fans throughout the nation get set for an action-packed slate of Week 0 games. This will be a season like never before, as it’s the first with a full lineup of prediction market platforms available (in the United States) for CFB fans to trade on outcomes.
As is the case with any other year, a slew of off-season narratives have been driving the conversation, with fans attempting to sort through what’s real and what’s spin. While College Football media coverage can be a key indicator of public opinion, nothing talks quite like the money. That’s where prediction markets for college football come into play.
Prediction Markets for Week 0 College Football Games
The Aer Lingus Classic will officially get the season underway when North Carolina faces off with TCU at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. Other highlighted matchups for Week 0 include Hawai’i vs Stanford, USC vs San Jose State, and NC State vs Virginia.
Trade $10 & Get a $20 Bonus at Polymarket!
See the latest markets on top prediction platforms for Week 0 College Football matchups. New traders can claim the Kalshi promo code to get a $25 bonus when they trade $25 in contracts. There is also the option to use the Polymarket promo code, which unlocks a $20 bonus after trading $10.
North Carolina vs TCU
The implied market probabilities for North Carolina vs TCU are nearly identical on Kalshi and Polymarket. Each trading platform shows the Horned Frogs as a sizeable favorite, currently trading around 75% implied probability, which translates to (-300) odds. However, there is a key distinction in trading volume between the two platforms. Kalshi has seen much higher trading activity for the North Carolina vs TCU prediction markets, and as a result, has significantly higher liquidity. That being said, the lower volume on Polymarket means the market will react more drastically to each order, and it could present a window for users to lock in trades at more advantageous positions.
Hawai’i vs Stanford
Kalshi and Polymarket are nearly in lock-step with implied market probabilities for Hawai’i vs Stanford in Week 0 of the college football season. Currently, each platform’s market favors the Stanford Cardinal around 63% implied market probability (-170) odds to start the season with a win. Kalshi has seen much higher trading volume for this game, and as such, offers a much more liquid market for users who intend to trade using limit orders (set price trades).
San Jose St. vs USC
The prediction markets for San Jose St. vs USC have shown interesting divergence thus far on Kalshi and Polymarket. Looking at Kalshi, the Trojans are currently trading at 99% implied market probability (-9900) odds. On Polymarket, the Trojans are priced at 95% (-1900) odds. With a noticeable difference in implied probabilities, this presents a terrific opportunity for College Football traders to price shop. With trading event contracts, this is currently a difference of $0.04 per share, which is certainly nothing to sneeze at.
North Carolina St. vs Virginia
Looking at the College Football prediction markets for North Carolina St. vs Virginia, Kalshi and Polymarket offer nearly identical pricing. Each market currently prices the Virginia Cavaliers as favorites (65%) with the NC State Wolfpack coming back at around 35%. The Kalshi market for this game is currently more liquid, with over $90k in trading volume already. It’s certainly worth tracking this game on Polymarket, as a lower trading volume could result in more drastic price changes, and chances for traders to buy and sell contracts at potentially lucrative positions.
Futures Markets for the College Football Playoff
In addition to markets for weekly college football games, trading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer CFB futures markets for users to buy and sell positions on season-long outcomes. Markets for the College Football Playoff are some of the most popular futures options on prediction exchanges, with a variety of options for users to trade on.
As the season comes into focus, two of the hottest futures markets include the winner of the College Football Playoff, as well as teams to make the CFP Quarterfinals.
CFP National Champion
The first futures market we’ll examine is the College Football Playoff National Champion. This is likely to generate the highest trading volume of any college football futures, so the market should be extremely liquid. Right now, prediction markets for the CFP Championship on both Polymarket and Kalshi price the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Ohio State Buckeyes as co-favorites to win the national title.
Kalshi has commanded a massive market volume, with over $16.1M already traded on the winner of the College Football Playoff. Polymarket has also seen impressive market volume, and that will continue all season long. Noticeable differences come slightly further down the market, as traders on Kalshi can currently buy shares for Oregon at $0.11, while Polymarket prices the Ducks at $0.13. For futures traders intending to buy contracts at large volume, these are the differences that can turn out to be extremely profitable.
Team to Make the CFP Quarterfinals
CFP Quarterfinal qualifiers are another interesting market to examine on both Kalshi and Polymarket. With the 12-team College Football Playoff format, fans are treated to three elimination rounds leading up to the National Championship Game. Market liquidity on both Kalshi and Polymarket has picked up as the season approaches, and it will be fascinating to track when and where the money continues to come in as futures traders take up positions.
Kalshi has seen early money come in on Georgia, with the Bulldogs currently holding the highest implied market probability (59%) to reach the Quarterfinals. On Polymarket, Georgia shares can currently be purchased at $0.54, providing an advantage of $0.05 per $1 for traders. Notre Dame currently boasts the highest implied market probability on Polymarket, but with such low market liquidity, it’s still too early to predict how prices will shake out. Polymarket has even less total trading volume for the CFP Quarterfinals, but has seen early trading action similar to Kalshi, with blue-bloods Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, and Oregon commanding much of the orders thus far.
CFB Market Divergence: Kalshi vs Polymarket for Week 0
The monotony of the offseason is winding down and kickoff for another College Football season is finally within reach. While casual fans nationwide lock in wagers and trades across sportsbooks and prediction markets, the smart money will be strategically placed on carefully crafted positions.
Prediction markets for Week 0 of the College Football season suggest smart money agrees across multiple trading platforms. Market pricing is nearly identical on Kalshi vs Polymarket for several Week 0 matchups, including North Carolina vs TCU, Hawai’i vs Stanford, and NC State vs Virginia. Select matchups, like USC vs San Jose St. have seen slight market divergence, presenting an early opportunity for traders to price shop before locking in positions.
The futures markets tell an interesting story for college football prediction markets. Implied market probability on both Kalshi and Polymarket shows the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Ohio State Buckeyes at the top of the odds to win the national championship, but the platforms diverge where the money comes in. On Polymarket, traders are bullish on Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish currently have the highest trading volume for the national championship futures market. On Kalshi, traders have backed several teams (Texas, Miami) with more market volume than Notre Dame.
Across both Kalshi and Polymarket, the early money agrees on futures markets for the CFP Quarterfinal qualifiers. Market volume is still fairly low as the season approaches, but nearly all the initial (yes) positions staked by traders show confidence in blue-blood powerhouse programs like Texas, Oregon, and Georgia.
With top-tier trading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket each available for eligible traders in over 40 states, the opportunities to price shop will be plentiful this season. And remember, there are so many overlapping markets, so it can be incredibly advantageous to use both platforms to strategically buy and sell shares at the best available market prices to maximize your potential gain.
After years of writing as well as Data Analyst work for Pro Football Focus, Kevin Wolff is now a Sports Betting Writer for SportRadar. A graduate of Fordham University in NYC, Kevin is also a full-time dog dad when he's not writing. He can be reached at k.wolff@sportradar.com
