Tennessee will be looking to make history on Saturday as it travels to face Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
The Vols haven’t won in Tuscaloosa in this rivalry since 2003. However, the Vols have won 2 of the last 3 meetings in this series overall, including last season in Knoxville.
Tennessee vs. Alabama spread
Here’s a look at the live college football odds for this game:
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
Tennessee football notes
- Josh Heupel has had more success against Alabama than any Vols coach since Phillip Fulmer. Heupel is 2-3 against the Tide. Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt went a combined 0-12 against Alabama.
- Tennessee played Arkansas at home this past Saturday and won 34-31. Tennessee had a 34-17 lead at one point in the fourth quarter but allowed the Razorbacks to score 2 touchdowns to cut the final deficit to 3.
- Despite Tennessee’s 5-1 record, its defense has been underwhelming this season. The Vols rank 114th in EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper. They’ve struggled against both the run and the pass for most of the season.
- Both of Tennessee’s starting cornerbacks, Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson, remain out for this game due to injuries.
- The strength of Tennessee’s defense is its pass rush. The Vols rank 2nd nationally with 26 sacks so far this season.
- Tennessee’s offense has been excellent this season. The Vols rank 10th in EPA-per-play on the offensive side of the ball, per Game on Paper.
- Joey Aguilar has a 52% success rate so far this season, which is bordering on elite. Aguilar has thrown 5 interceptions already, but underlying data suggests he’s been unfortunate (only 2 turnover-worthy throws, per Pro Football Focus).
- Tennessee’s offense has one significant weakness — it lacks explosive plays. Per Game on Paper, the Vols have an explosive play rate of 6.9%. That’s only good enough for the 20th percentile among FBS teams. That’s also similar to where Tennessee’s offense has been since the departures of Hendon Hooker and Alex Golesh after the 2022 season.
- Star Thomas, DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis have split carries so far this year as the Vols look to replace Dylan Sampson. Bishop (0.28 EPA per rush) and Lewis (56% success rate) have been the most efficient.
Alabama football notes
- Alabama has won 5 straight games since its season-opening loss to Florida State, including 3 straight to top-25 opponents. The Tide will be playing a fourth-straight ranked team this week in the Vols.
- Most recently, Alabama beat Mizzou 27-24 on the road. Although Alabama won and Ty Simpson threw 3 touchdown passes, the offense struggled on a down-to-down basis. The Tide averaged just 4.3 yards per play (compared to 5.9 for Mizzou).
- Third down has been key for Alabama in recent weeks. Against Georgia, the Crimson Tide completed 68% of their third-down attempts in a narrow win. It’s mattered on defense, too — Mizzou went just 1-for-10 on third down this past Saturday. For the season, Alabama ranks 31st in third down conversion rate differential.
- Ty Simpson is among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. He has a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt.
- If Simpson has one weakness, it’s taking too many sacks. Per PFF, his pressure-to-sack rate is 18.5% so far this season. It’s a high number, but it’s also only the sixth-worst among SEC quarterbacks with at least 175 drop-backs this season.
- Like several other top SEC teams, Alabama has been unable to run the ball efficiently this season. The Tide rank 127th nationally in rushing success rate, per Game on Paper.
- The return of Jam Miller was supposed to help with that, but Miller has not been a game-changer from an efficiency standpoint. His individual rushing success rate of 36% is in the same neighborhood as Kevin Riley and Richard Young.
- It’s been a disappointing season so far for Ryan Williams. The sophomore superstar has been charged with 6 drops already this season. He also has a catch rate of just 65.6% and only played 16 snaps against Mizzou last weekend (1 target).
- Defensively, Alabama’s secondary has been good this season. The Crimson Tide rank 29th in pass defense success rate. They’re also 30th in pass defense efficiency rating.
- Alabama has had more issues defending the run this season, but its run defense showed up in a big way last week against Mizzou. It limited Ahmad Hardy to just 52 yards on 12 carries — his first game of the season to be under the century mark.
Tennessee vs. Alabama picks
I do have some significant concerns about this Tennessee defense, but I think the Vols will be able to get a handful of stops in this game and keep Alabama under its team total. A lot of that has to do with the spot the Crimson Tide are in — 4 straight games against ranked teams. Alabama’s offense was sneakily inefficient last week against Mizzou despite the win. Mizzou’s defense is better than Tennessee’s, but I still think the Vols will be able to do enough here to keep the Crimson Tide under this number.
Pick: Alabama team total under 34.5 (-120 on DraftKings)
Attention Tennessee residents — Don’t miss out on the action this weekend! Here’s SDS’s full breakdown of all the best TN sports betting apps available in 2025.
I think Isaiah Horton will find the end zone this weekend. At 6-4, Horton is a nightmare matchup in the red zone for a Tennessee secondary that is playing backups at both cornerback spots. Horton already has 4 touchdowns this season and could see more targets in high-leverage situations as Ryan Williams’ health remains a question.
Pick: Isaiah Horton anytime TD (+145 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
