Tennessee and Kentucky will meet up in Lexington on Saturday for what is an important game for both programs.
The Vols must get a win in order to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. On the other side, Kentucky is still looking for its first SEC win of the season and may have a coaching staff on the hot seat. Mark Stoops and the Wildcats have only won 4 of their last 16 SEC games dating back to the start of 2023.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky spread
Here’s a look at the up-to-date betting odds for this game:
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
Tennessee football notes
- Tennessee is coming off of a tough rivalry-game loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa last weekend. Although the final score of 37-20 may not show it, Tennessee was pretty competitive against the Crimson Tide.
- Tennessee averaged 5.3 yards per play compared to 6.1 for Alabama. Joey Aguilar’s pick-6 at the end of the first half may well have been a 14-point swing on the final outcome.
- Tennessee’s passing attack struggled against Alabama, but the running game was there. DeSean Bishop rushed for 123 yards on 14 carries. Star Thomas also had 26 yards on 3 attempts, good for more than 8 yards per clip. Bishop had explosive rushes of 18, 22 and 44 yards in the losing effort.
- Tennessee’s defense has continued to disappoint this season, particularly with both starting cornerbacks still out due to injury. Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson are both still listed as ‘out’ on Tennessee’s availability report.
- Tennessee ranks 118th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play allowed metric this season. They’re also 115th in defensive success rate. We’re far enough into the year to show a meaningful sample that says Tennessee has one of the worst defenses in the SEC.
- However, not all metrics point to the Vols being quite that bad. Tennessee is 8th in the SEC in yards per play allowed (10th if you filter for only SEC games). Tennessee is also 44th nationally in SP+ defense so far this season, although preseason priors are presumably a big reason for that.
Kentucky football notes
- Kentucky is 1 of 4 SEC teams who have not won a conference game so far this season. However, the Wildcats have come close twice. They played Ole Miss to within a touchdown and took Texas to overtime last week.
- The Wildcats have been much better at home than on the road this season. They have a +20 point differential in home games and a -43 point differential in away games. Their résumé also includes a win over a decent Toledo team and a blowout victory over Eastern Michigan.
- Quarterback Cutter Boley played the best game of his young career last week against Texas. He threw for 258 yards on 39 attempts and also rushed for 45 yards.
- Seth McGowan is Kentucky’s top option out of the backfield. He enters this week ranked 8th in the SEC in rushing yardage.
- Kentucky’s defense has proven to be really good, particularly at home. The Wildcats are allowing an average of 5.29 yards per play in Lexington. That may not initially sound especially impressive, but that sample size includes Ole Miss, Toledo and Texas. The Rebels and Rockets are both top-40 nationally in yards per play.
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Tennessee vs. Kentucky picks
I like the under in this game. I think Kentucky’s defense will put up a fight against a Vols’ offense that’s been good-but-not-great this season. I also don’t trust UK’s offense to sustain much of anything against Tennessee despite its poor advanced metrics on defense. I think Tennessee wins (and probably covers) but I bet we’ll see a lower-scoring game than the markets currently project.
Pick: Under 55 (-110 on bet365)
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I think it will be a relatively quiet day for DeSean Bishop. He’s been playing out of his mind so far this season, rushing for over 8 yards per carry in each of the last 2 games. But the reality is that his volume just hasn’t been very high as he’s splitting carries with Star Thomas and Peyton Lewis. He’s only averaging 13 carries per game in SEC play. For him to hit this over on rushing yardage on that few attempts, Bishop would have to continue running at an efficiency level that I just don’t think is sustainable. He’s currently averaging 7.3 yards per rush against SEC defenses this season. The last running back to do better than that over a single season was Texas A&M’s De’Vone Achane way back in 2021 (and he only had 90 carries). I think some regression is coming here.
Pick: DeSean Bishop under 72.5 rushing yards (-115 on Caesars)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
