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Texas vs. Oklahoma is setting up to be a game with important College Football Playoff implications for both teams.
Texas enters this game with an undefeated record, but the Longhorns haven’t been tested since their Week 2 win over Michigan on the road. Oklahoma does have one blemish already, but a second straight win over rival Texas would significantly alter the Sooners’ chances to reach the CFP.
Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:
Texas vs. Oklahoma betting lines
Lines via DraftKings:
Spread: Texas -14 (-110) | Oklahoma +14 (-110)
Total: Over 49 (-112) | Under 49 (-108)
Betting trends to know for Texas
Texas is…
- 4-1 against the spread in 2024
- 10-6 against the spread as a 14+ point favorite in the Steve Sarkisian era
- 1-2 against the spread vs. Oklahoma in the Steve Sarkisian era
- 1-2 against the spread in the week after a bye in the Steve Sarkisian era
Betting trends to know for Oklahoma
Oklahoma is…
- 3-2 against the spread in 2024
- 1-1 against the spread as a 7+ point underdog in the Brent Venables era
- 1-1 against the spread vs. Texas in the Brent Venables era
- 1-1 against the spread in the week after a bye in the Brent Venables era
Don’t miss out on the action during college football season! Here’s Saturday Down South’s breakdown of the top real money betting apps on the market in 2024!
Advanced Stats preview
Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing success rate
- Texas rushing offense success rate: 55.7%
- Oklahoma rushing defense success rate: 30.5%
This is going to be a crucial part of the matchup for the Red River Rivalry this year. The Texas running game has been very good despite sustaining multiple injuries during fall camp. Jaydon Blue has been the primary ball-carrier for much of the year, and was having a good season before catching the fumble bug over the past couple of weeks. Blue coughed it up twice against Mississippi State, which resulted in Quintrevion Wisner being the Longhorns’ leading ball-carrier for that contest. Whether it’s Blue or Wisner who gets most of the reps in Dallas this weekend, keeping hold of the ball will be paramount. But if they do so, Texas’ rushing offense has proven it can have success.
On the other side, Oklahoma’s rush defense has been very good to start the year. However, it’s worth noting the Sooners did struggle a bit in this area against Auburn a couple of weeks ago. Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter averaged 5.7 yards per carry out of the backfield in that game. As far as the Texas matchup goes, expect OU to be aggressive in trying to force fumbles. Oklahoma is tied for the SEC lead in that category entering this weekend with 8 so far in 2024.
- Oklahoma rushing offense success rate: 30.8%
- Texas rushing defense success rate: 40%
Oklahoma’s lack of a running game has been the most under-discussed issue with the Sooners’ offense to start the year. The O-line struggled mightily through nonconference play, but Oklahoma’s rushing numbers weren’t that much better even with a healthy unit up front against Tennessee and Auburn. Another key factor to watch here is the health of true freshman running back Taylor Tatum. He missed the Auburn game, but appears to be good-to-go for Red River. Although Tatum is younger and less experienced than Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk, he has been the most effective running back on the team so far in 2024 (39% success rate, per Game On Paper).
UT’s rush defense has held up pretty well so far this season, albeit against lackluster competition outside of the Michigan game. In that contest, the Longhorns held Michigan to just 3.5 yards per carry and forced a run-heavy offense to throw the ball much more than it otherwise would have. Texas may look to follow a similar blueprint on Saturday vs. Oklahoma.
Passing success rate
- Texas passing offense success rate: 52.9%
- Oklahoma passing defense success rate: 41%
Quinn Ewers hasn’t played a in a few weeks, but Texas’ offense hasn’t really missed a beat with Arch Manning under center. However, against an Oklahoma defense that may genuinely be elite, Texas is fortunate to have someone as experienced and as talented as Ewers. This is a bit of a redemption spot for Ewers, who turned it over 3 times in this game a year ago as Texas suffered a big upset loss. Prior to sustaining an injury last month, Ewers looked like he was well on his way to competing for the Heisman Trophy. This will be the third time Ewers has faced a Brent Venables defense, so we’ll see if Oklahoma has any tricks left up its sleeve for the veteran QB.
Oklahoma’s pass defense has been good, but not necessarily great to start the year. The best part of the pass defense, arguably, has been the emergence of edge rusher R Mason Thomas. He’s helped close out wins over Houston and Auburn with clutch sacks late in the game and leads the team with 6.5 tackles for loss on the year. The secondary has been vulnerable to big plays from time to time, particularly in SEC play. Oklahoma has already given up 8 passing plays of 30+ yards in 2 SEC games, which is fewer than only Alabama (9 in 3 games) to start the year. That certainly seems like something Sarkisian and Texas could exploit going into this matchup.
- Oklahoma passing offense success rate: 35.5%
- Texas passing defense success rate: 28.1%
This matchup is the biggest mystery of the weekend — possibly on both sides. Michael Hawkins Jr. will be making his second-ever start for Oklahoma this weekend. He was efficient against Auburn, but close to half of his passing yards against the Tigers came on one play to JJ Hester in the second half of that game. With a success rate in the neighborhood of 35%, that has to be the model for Oklahoma — big explosive plays that create scoring opportunities. It’s possible that Oklahoma was able to add some wrinkles to its passing game during the bye week, but there’s a not much evidence to suggest OU can reliably move the ball through the air on a (seemingly) elite Texas defense. It’s also worth noting in this space that OU is once again expected to be without its top 5 wide receivers due to injury.
Texas has shown no signs of growing pains on defense. The Longhorns have been, on paper, arguably the best pass defense in the country so far this season. Their success rate is elite and they lead the country in yards-per-attempt allowed at just 4.5. The problem is that Texas has yet to face anything close to a competent passing offense. Michigan is a mess, as has been well-documented. But UT’s other opponents — Colorado State, UTSA, Louisiana Monroe and Mississippi State — also offered next to nothing in the passing game. In fact, they hardly even tried. Despite each of those 4 teams facing big second-half deficits, all ended up with a rushing rate at or above 50% against the Longhorns. Those teams were so pessimistic about their ability to throw the ball that they essentially decided it was more prudent to shorten the game rather than risk getting blown out by a bigger margin. Oklahoma certainly won’t lay down in that manner — but we’ll see if the Sooners are good enough to test this Texas secondary that has been flawless so far.
1 other key: Can Oklahoma force multiple turnovers?
Oklahoma won 34-30 a year ago mostly due to 3 turnovers by Ewers. Texas was a more talented team in 2023 — as evidenced by their Playoff run — but Oklahoma was able to force Texas into some big mistakes.
The pathway to victory for the Sooners looks very similar in 2024. Texas appears to have the better roster. It certainly has more experience at quarterback. Oklahoma’s primary edge is that Ewers and lead running back Jaydon Blue have both been a bit turnover-prone. And if there’s one thing Oklahoma is elite at this season, it’s been forcing turnovers.
Oklahoma enters this game No. 1 in the SEC in turnover margin (+8) and total takeaways (13). The Sooners have reached those totals primarily by recovering 8 fumbles across 5 games. Now, it is worth noting that Oklahoma may face some regression in this regard soon. OU has recovered 8 out of a possible 9 opponent fumbles so far in 2024. Offensively, they’ve only lost 2 of their 6 fumbles.
Whether or not Oklahoma can continue its streak of fumble luck or get Ewers to make some mistakes with the ball could very well decide who covers the spread in this game — or even who wins outright.
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
