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With the words “Quinn Ewers has declared for the NFL Draft,” it became official.
Let the Arch Manning Era in Austin begin.
Some assumed it would begin far sooner or that it would begin somewhere other than Texas if Ewers stayed in school in 2024. Nope. The plan is still intact, and everything Manning was billed as being is still on the table.
Well, check that. When Manning committed to Texas in the summer of 2022, at that time, Texas was coming off a 5-7 season in Year 1 under Steve Sarkisian. At the time, Manning was billed as “the savior.” To call him that at this point would be a discredit not just to Ewers, but to that entire Texas program that clinched consecutive Playoff semifinal berths after a decade-plus of irrelevance.
A savior, Manning won’t be. But a decorated, potentially generational player at the game’s most important position? That’s on the table. Still.
If you were/are in the camp that Manning would be a nobody if his last name were “Johnson,” you probably came to that conclusion without watching him play. If you were/are in the camp that Manning is destined to be the best of the bunch, you could probably use a deep breath.
Let’s call it like it is. Manning’s college sample size is small but significant because he got his first career starts in the wake of Ewers’ oblique injury against UTSA. Manning prepared like a starter, albeit against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State, neither of which cracked the top 90 in scoring defense. That’s still significant, as was the fact that he was called on for key 4th-down situations against Texas A&M, Georgia in the SEC Championship, Clemson and Ohio State. Those results were an impressive touchdown run in which he showed his dual-threat ability, a decoy, a fumbled snap on a hurry-up call and a conversion in which he nearly fumbled after taking a violent hit.
Eventful? Yep. Manning didn’t have a single play that eventful during his true freshman season in 2023. But in 2024, he played 233 snaps. Some will argue that wasn’t enough and that he could’ve led Texas to a national title if he had been the starter.
Again, take a deep breath.
For Manning, those snaps will be invaluable as he approaches his first offseason as QB1. In typical recent Texas fashion, all of the Longhorns’ top 3 pass-catching options are off to the NFL. They’ll inevitably land a significant weapon or 2 in the post-spring transfer portal window, and not just because of Manning’s last name. He was PFF’s highest-graded backup quarterback because in addition to using his legs for things like 67-yard touchdown runs or key 4th-down touchdowns in hostile atmospheres, Manning stretched the field well.
He had a 47.2% adjusted completion percentage on throws of 20-plus yards, which was a shade under Ole Miss’ decorated Jaxson Dart (47.7%). And for the pass-catchers who operate closer to the line of scrimmage, it should help to know that Manning completed 88% of his passes that were within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Manning can improve in the intermediate range (he completed 61.1% of his passes between 10-to-19 yards), and his limited sample size throwing under pressure (16 attempts in 2024) is a box he hasn’t checked yet, but that should come with more regular reps. The key for Manning is that so far, he hasn’t shown that anything will limit him. The entire playbook should be open based on his skill set and QB IQ.
That in itself is worth getting excited about.
If there’s a criticism of Ewers post-injury, it felt like Sarkisian was forced to call a game plan that was limited. And as we saw against that loaded defensive line of Ohio State, Ewers had issues escaping pressure. Manning will be an upgrade in both areas.
Does is guarantee he’ll ever have a 4th-and-13 moment and win 21 games in a 2-year stretch like Ewers? Of course not. This sport is too challenging to etch that in stone.
Speaking of things that shouldn’t be etched in stone, in a few months, you’ll inevitably see Manning showing up on the way-too-early 2026 NFL mock drafts, and understandably so. It’s wild to think that Manning is already entering his pre-Draft season.
But dare I say, I don’t expect the 2025 season to be Manning’s last in college. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Manning opts for the 2-year starter plan instead of being 1-and-done as QB1 in Austin. You might’ve heard that uncles Eli and Peyton, as well as grandpa Archie Manning, all exhausted their college eligibility. While that was in a different era with underclassmen declaring for the NFL Draft, it was also pre-NIL. Take that for what it is.
What Manning’s college start has shown is that he’s very much on schedule with all the way-too-early national title and Heisman Trophy buzz still in play for his first year as a starter. If he was miffed that he didn’t start over the elder Ewers, Lord knows he could’ve had every program in the country rolling out the red carpet for his services.
Instead, the same program that Manning committed to 2 1/2 years ago will reap the benefits of his loyalty. Time will tell if Manning can live up to the unprecedented hype for his college career. We’ll find out soon enough.
Until then, let’s all take a deep breath.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
