There were 10 games involving SEC teams in Week 13. Unfortunately, just 4 of them were conference matchups, and none of them featured a single-digit margin of victory. Don’t worry, though: LSU gave us some drama — on the field for a change, amiright? — vs. Western Kentucky to provide 1 close contest.
For the most part, SEC teams carbo-loaded on lower-level opponents last Saturday ahead of their important Rivalry Week battles. Both SEC Championship Game participants will be determined this weekend, as will the postseason fate of 5 conference members and, potentially, Lane Kiffin. Make sure to leave some room on your Thanksgiving plate for all that’s to come.
Games are listed in order of approximate start time. Plays mentioned are based on win probability added, via ESPN analytics. Rankings are from the College Football Playoff Week 13 reveal.
Samford vs. No. 3 Texas A&M (48-0 Texas A&M)
Play: 0:36 Q4, 2nd-and-8, Texas A&M 23-yard line. Ronnie Crosby III rushes for 1 yard to Texas A&M 24-yard line (+0.1%).
When you’re the No. 3 team in the country facing a 1-10 FCS squad, you’re going to open your game with a 99.9% win probability. When you score a touchdown against said team without a negative play on your opening drive, your win probability isn’t going to diminish a single bit. So, technically, the last play of this game — that pushed the clock to 0:00 in regulation — was the most consequential one. We’re going to go out on a limb and say Texas A&M won’t have as easy of a time in the Lone Star Showdown on Friday.
No. 22 Missouri vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (17-6 Oklahoma)
Play: 6:45 Q2, 3rd-and-7, Oklahoma 13-yard line. John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 87 yards, touchdown. 7-3 Oklahoma (+21.2%).
The Tigers were unsurprisingly pesky in this game with the return of quarterback Beau Pribula. The Sooners got 31.5% of their total yards for the game on this play, which gave them a lead they wouldn’t relinquish. Oklahoma (9-2, 5-2 SEC) will be in the College Football Playoff with a victory over LSU in Week 14. Brent Venables deserves major kudos for finding a way to beat Tennessee and Alabama on the road after picking up a second loss.
RELATED: Missouri residents will be able to bet on the Tigers in the upcoming bowl game. Check out all the latest info on the bet365 Missouri bonus code ahead of the Dec. 1 launch!
Charlotte vs. No. 4 Georgia (45-3 Georgia)
Play: 6:44 Q1, 2nd-and-10, Charlotte 31-yard line. Gunnar Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 29 yards to Charlotte 2-yard line. First down Georgia (+0.1%).
The Bulldogs almost matched the Aggies in win probability at kickoff of their game vs. the 49ers (99.7%). They didn’t nudge above that mark until they reached the goal line’s doorstep midway through the opening quarter. Kirby Smart and Co. will play for the SEC Championship for the fifth straight season — and the eighth time in 9 years — if either Texas A&M or Alabama lose this weekend.
Eastern Illinois vs. No. 10 Alabama (56-0 Alabama)
Play: 0:32 Q4, 2nd-and-8, Eastern Illinois 27-yard line. Chris Caldwell rushes for 0 yards (+0.1%).
If Kane Wommack was looking at the Arkansas job, his defense didn’t show it on Saturday. The Crimson Tide — who had a 99.9% win probability at opening kickoff — held the Panthers to 34 total yards of offense in this one. Ty Simpson shockingly played his worst game of the season in this Iron Bowl tune up. He now has 3 interceptions in his last 2 games. There is tons of bad juju surrounding Alabama in advance of this trip to Jordan-Hare. Can Kalen DeBoer rally the troops and overcome it?
Mercer vs. Auburn (62-17 Auburn)
Play: 0:28 Q1, 3rd-and-10, Auburn 49-yard line. Deuce Knight rushes for 51 yards, touchdown. Game tied 14-14 (+6.2%).
Mercer (9-1 entering action) grinded its win probability to 14.3% throughout the first quarter against Auburn on Saturday. That was no small feat after beginning the game with only a roughly 3% chance of winning. From there, though, the Tigers took over. They outscored the Bears 48-3 across the final 3 quarters of the game to fly into the Iron Bowl on a high note. The vibes are significantly higher for Auburn than they are Alabama ahead of this clash. If Deuce Knight can remain composed in his second career start, the Tigers will be live dogs.
Kentucky vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt (45-17 Vanderbilt)
Play: 13:03 Q2, 2nd-and-10, Vanderbilt 29-yard line. Diego Pavia pass complete to Trey Richardson for 71 yards, touchdown. 10-0 Vanderbilt (+9.1%).
Before the season, many thought the Commodores’ bowl appearance from 2024 was a fluke. They thought Clark Lea and Diego Pavia were primed for regression. Instead, the 2025 campaign has become almost like The Godfather Part II. Here’s hoping their 2026 season doesn’t turn out to be a rendition of The Godfather Part III.
Arkansas vs. No. 17 Texas (52-37 Texas)
Play: 12:26 Q2, 2nd-and-10, Texas 46-yard line. Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 54 yards, touchdown. 21-13 Texas (+7.0%).
If the Longhorns can beat Texas A&M, and Alabama, BYU, Miami, Utah, Vanderbilt and Michigan — the 6 teams between them and the No. 10 CFP ranking — all lose this weekend, Steve Sarkisian and Co. would probably crack the Playoff bracket. There’s also probably a greater chance of Tom Brady coming out of retirement than all of that happening. But if it were to transpire, that’d be a heck of a parlay (if you indulge in such activities).
Coastal Carolina vs. South Carolina (51-7 South Carolina)
Play: 15:00 Q1, 1st-and-10, South Carolina 25-yard line. LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 75 yards, touchdown. 7-0 South Carolina (+2.3%).
One play is all it took for the Gamecocks to essentially seal the deal vs. the Chanticleers. Back in August, we expected the Palmetto Bowl to have some CFP ramifications. But it has been a long fall from grace for Clemson (No. 4) and South Carolina (No. 13) since that initial AP Poll.
No. 20 Tennessee vs. Florida (31-11 Tennessee)
Play: 11:28 Q1, 1st-and-10, Florida 23-yard line. Joey Aguilar pass complete to Ethan Davis for 23 yards, touchdown. 7-0 Tennessee (+5.4%).
Tennessee still has a chance to win 10 games after dissecting the Gators on Saturday, but the Vols will not be going to the CFP this year. Vanderbilt, though, still has a plausible CFP path. That means Tennessee is, for possibly the first time this century, the hunter rather than the hunted in this rivalry contest. In that regard, it’s an interesting change of pace for Josh Heupel and Co. to end the year.
Western Kentucky vs. LSU (13-10 LSU)
Play: 1:05 Q4, 3rd-and-2, Western Kentucky 29-yard line. Harlem Berry FUMBLES, recovered by Dylan Flowers, returned 71 yards, touchdown. 13-10 LSU (+4.8% for Western Kentucky).
The only thing the Tigers’ fanbase is concerned about winning at this point is the Lane Kiffin sweepstakes. Meanwhile, LSU’s players and current coaches will try to knock Oklahoma out of the CFP.
