Way-too-early Heisman Trophy breakdown: What prediction markets are saying
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The 2026 Heisman Trophy race won’t be settled for nearly a year, but markets have already established a number of top contenders for the award.
Kalshi already has a marketplace up for the 2026 Heisman Trophy race, a battle that’s expected to include several much-hyped quarterbacks. Kalshi is one of the top prediction markets and is legal in most US states.
2026 Heisman Trophy Kalshi
Let’s break down the top 2026 Heisman Trophy candidates on Kalshi as of January 2026:
Arch Manning, Texas
Manning was a preseason favorite for the award in 2025, but quickly fell off the pace after a rough September in his first year as Texas’s starting quarterback. Manning had a strong last 6 games, however, averaging 8 yards per attempt with a 14-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. Those aren’t necessarily Heisman-caliber numbers, but Manning showed enough progress down the stretch to get his name back in the mix for 2026. Manning also has as much name recognition as anyone who has played college football in recent memory, which should only help his Heisman candidacy. The addition of Cam Coleman figures to be a big boost for the Texas offense as a whole next fall.
CJ Carr, Notre Dame
Carr was involved in a heated quarterback battle with Kenny Minchey during fall camp, but could not have had a better freshman season. Carr became just the 9th QB since 2014 to average more than 9 yards per attempt as a true or redshirt freshman. Carr will lead a Notre Dame team that’s expected to be among the very best in the country once again next season. Notre Dame has a relatively soft schedule next season aside from a home game vs. Miami, so the Fighting Irish are likely to be relevant deep into the season. If Carr is a driving force behind a dominant Notre Dame season, he’ll be in the conversation for both the Heisman Trophy and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
It’s rare for a wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy, but Smith certainly has the profile to be a contender next season. The Ohio State star has totaled over 1,200 yards in each of his first 2 seasons in Columbus. He’s likely to break program records for receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in the early part of next season. Smith’s Heisman candidacy may require another leap, but he’s a preseason favorite for a reason. The last wide receiver (excluding Travis Hunter) to win the Heisman was Alabama’s DeVonta Smith in 2020. Smith had over 1,500 yards and 17 touchdowns when ballots were cast that season, setting a high bar for Ohio State’s top wideout.
Here’s a visual representation of Kalshi’s Heisman Trophy marketplace:
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In addition to those 3 big names, numerous others have at least a 5% chance (as of publication) to win the Heisman. That list includes Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, among others.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
