Week 13 SEC Primer: Oklahoma, somehow, is on the verge of making its improbable Playoff dream come true

Everything you need to know about the Week 13 SEC slate, all in one place. (A bold • indicates Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.)

Game of the Week: Missouri at Oklahoma (-6.5)

The stakes: Can Oklahoma keep this up?

You gotta hand it to them: Few if any teams have 2 road wins on their résumé as impressive as the Sooners’ back-to-back upsets at Tennessee and Alabama, much less in consecutive games. with their season hanging by a thread. Less than month ago, they were virtually left for dead in the Playoff race on the heels of deflating October losses to Texas and Ole Miss. At that point, it seemed possible that they would be underdogs in each of their last four games. In this space, I described Oklahoma ahead of the trip to Knoxville as “sinking” and focused almost exclusively on what was at stake for the Volunteers. Two weeks later, OU is in the driver’s seat, checking in at No. 8 in the updated CFP committee rankings and firmly in control of its own destiny with two very winnable games to go.

It has not been pretty. The Sooners themselves would probably be the first to admit they’ve done it the hard way. In the win over Tennessee, they were outgained by more than 100 yards and committed 11 penalties. Against Alabama, they were outgained by nearly 200 yards, and generated 17 of their 23 points as a direct result of 3 Bama turnovers. Based on the box score, ESPN’s Bill Connelly estimated Oklahoma’s postgame win expectancy in Tuscaloosa at 4.8%, its lowest projection in any game this season (including both of its losses). The defense scored the first touchdown in both games, and forced more takeaways (6) than it had managed in the first 8 games combined (4). Kicker Tate Sandell was a perfect 7-for-7 on field goal attempts, including 4 connections from 50+ yards out. Not every variable has broken in the Sooners’ favor, but the ones that have they have taken advantage of.

Whatever they lacked in style points, the wins have left the Sooners in enviable position in the CFP pecking order, with little chance of getting leapt in the rankings and only Mizzou (in Norman) and LSU (in Baton Rouge) remaining between them and a golden ticket. The margin for error, of course, remains zero. But that is nothing new. For now, the most important thing about living on the edge is that they’re still alive.

When Oklahoma has the ball: Can John Mateer stretch the field?

Mateer has never had a reputation as a gunslinger, but his downfield efficiency on downfield attempts has plummeted since his return from surgery to repair an injury to his throwing hand in early October. The timing might be coincidental, given that it also coincides with an uptick in Oklahoma’s strength of schedule. The results, though, are plain enough. Per Pro Football Focus, Mateer has connected on just 2-of-17 attempts of 20+ air yards over the past 5 games, yielding the fewest completions and worst grade on downfield attempts among SEC starters in that span.

Whether he needs to push the ball downfield on any given Saturday is another question. He didn’t attempt a pass of 20+ air yards in the win over Alabama, a game in which OU led virtually from start to finish except for a stretch late in the 3rd quarter. He did complete 1 downfield attempt against Tennessee, but averaged an anemic 5.5 yards per attempt for the night. He did most of his damage in that game with his legs, running 15 times (excluding sacks) for 93 yards and a touchdown. As a team, the Sooners gashed the Vols for 199 rushing yards on 6.2 per carry — an ideal scenario, as long as they’re also generating the occasional explosive play through the air. That aspect of the offense has been sorely missing.

When Mizzou has the ball: Can the Tigers control the clock?

As of midweek, Mizzou’s starting quarterback is TBD (see below). Regardless of who’s taking the snaps, though, it is no secret the Tigers are determined to run the dang ball. Despite an October lull, they still lead the SEC in rushing, and still boast the nation’s leading rusher for the season, sophomore Ahmad Hardy. Hardy has never looked better than he did in last week’s 49-27 win over Mississippi State, when he went off for a career-high 300 yards on 25 carries; that was easily the best single-game output by any FBS back this season, and he generated the lion’s share of it before a State defender laid a hand on him. He’s already 5th on Mizzou’s single-season rushing list with 1,346 yards and is within 300 yards of breaking Cody Schrader’s single-season record of 1,627.

Hanging a big number on Mississippi State’s rapidly disintegrating defense is one thing. Making a dent against Oklahoma, which leads the SEC against the run, is another story. But between Hardy and Jamal Roberts — both of whom went over 100 yards in a Week 11 loss to Texas A&M — the Tigers will be down to pound for 4 quarters, or as long as the scoreboard allows.

Wild card: Missouri QB Beau Pribula

Pribula has not played since Week 9, when he was carted off following what initially appeared to be a serious ankle injury at Vanderbilt. In the meantime, his understudy, true freshman Matt Zollers, has looked like … well, a true freshman understudy. In his first start, Zollers was 7-for-22 passing for 77 yards against Texas A&M, and just 3-for-15 on attempts beyond the line of scrimmage. He was slightly better last week against Mississippi State, finishing 8-of-18 for 112 yards, 2 TDs and an interception in much friendlier conditions. But a road trip to Oklahoma to face a Brent Venables defense is about as unfriendly as it gets.

Pribula’s recovery has been more rapid than expected. On Thursday, he was upgraded from “doubtful” to “questionable” on the weekly injury report; that followed an ESPN report earlier in the day that Pribula has been medically cleared, and that his status on Saturday will be essentially a game-time decision based on how well he’s moving around. The point spread narrowed by a point following news that Pribula might be available. He doesn’t boast the biggest arm, but his decision-making and mobility (assuming he’s given the green light to run) are significant upgrades over Zollers. Missouri has no incentive to rush Pribula back with its Playoff window almost certainly already closed, but if he really is in the clear his presence alone would be a much-needed shot in the arm.

The verdict …

As a rule, it’s probably wise not to be too bullish on a team that has been outgained by 300 yards in its 2 biggest wins. Still, Oklahoma has already passed 2 demanding road tests in as many games, and whatever skepticism remains over the offense, the defense and special teams are good enough to keep every game within the margin of error. Anyway, at this point, those are questions for further down the line. If the Sooners are as good as their record says they are, a home date with the finish line in sight should be just another day at the office.

Prediction: • Oklahoma 27 | Missouri 19

Tennessee (-4.5) at Florida

Saturday night will be the last edition of Gators-Vols as an annual affair before the SEC shifts to a 9-game conference slate next year — Florida and Tennessee were not paired as permanent opponents under the new format, bringing down the curtain on one of the most consequential rivalries of the post-expansion era. Frankly, whatever juice this matchup once had has been strictly the stuff of nostalgia for a while. From 1992-2009, 1 or the other of these teams represented the East Division in the SEC Championship Game 15 times in 18 years. Since 2010, they’ve combined for a grand total of 3 trips to the title game, all by Florida. (And all resulting in a loss in Atlanta at the hands of a heavily favored version of Alabama.) In that entire span, the Gators and Vols both finished above .500 in conference play in the same season only twice. Even the concept of the “East Division” has already accumulated a layer of dust.

So maybe it’s fitting that the end of an era arrives with nothing in particular at stake. If Tennessee (7-3) is still clinging to Playoff hopes, they’re infinitesimal at best; the Vols are 0-3 in games that matter (Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma) and haven’t beaten anybody who still has a chance to finish with a winning record. Florida is an incredible 2-7 vs. FBS opponents and more interested at this point in pursuing Lane Kiffin than anything that might conceivably happen on the field. The most interesting dynamic between the lines may be the status of Florida QB DJ Lagway, who — like most Gators fans — sounded well past ready to be done with the 2025 season following last week’s 34-24 loss at Ole Miss, describing the past 3 months as “emotionally draining” in what a local reporter described as “a monotone voice, (while) staring at the bricks on the back of the wall.” If Lagway still has any desire to remain in Gainesville in 2026, he’s running out of time to show it.

Prediction: • Tennessee 31 | Florida 22

Arkansas at Texas (-8.5)

The take is out there that Texas is being unfairly punished for its season-opening loss at Ohio State. If the Longhorns hadn’t opened the season with a trip to Columbus — if they’d scheduled the likes of, say, Baylor or TCU, or virtually anyone else other than the Buckeyes — and the rest of the season had unfolded exactly as it has, they’d be 8-2 right now, ranked in the top 10 by virtue of head-to-heads win over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, and firmly on the Playoff track. Instead, last week’s 35-10 loss at Georgia sent them plunging to 17th in the committee rankings, all but eliminating them from CFP contention at 7-3. So, the argument goes, why should anyone take the risk of playing Ohio State?

I don’t know if anyone who doesn’t actively root for Texas is actually supposed to be convinced by any of this, or if it’s purely an exercise in rationalization for the base. First, it takes for granted that the team that made the trip to Columbus in August obviously would have started 1-0 against a less elite opponent, which is a (citation needed) claim right off the bat. But the bigger point that this brand of take always tends to hide is that who you play is not nearly as important as how you play.

In fact, I think the OSU loss has been generally forgiven, if not forgotten. But not because Texas has done much to redeem itself in the meantime. Quite the opposite: The Longhorns have consistently reaffirmed the skepticism that followed the opener by underwhelming every single time they’ve left the state. No one needs to go that far back to justify their doubts. Their 2nd road trip, a 29-21 loss at Florida in Week 6, was arguably a bigger red flag than any loss suffered by any of the 16 teams ranked ahead of them. (With the possible exception of Alabama’s Week 1 debacle at Florida State.) The flop in The Swamp was bad at the time, coming at the hands of a reeling Gators outfit that prior to that game was 0-3 vs. FBS opponents; in hindsight, in light of their 1-4 record since, it looks even worse. The next 2 road trips, at Kentucky and Mississippi State, were a couple of skin-of-the-teeth overtime escapes against teams that are a combined 3-11 in SEC play. As long as we’re playing the hindsight game, what if either of those results had come up tails instead of heads?

There was no second-guessing the smackdown in Athens, which only confirmed what we’d already learned over the course of the season: Texas is not in the same weight class as real contenders and has not earned the benefit of the doubt. It’s not just the fickle human pollsters who aren’t convinced: The ‘Horns come in at No. 21 this week according to SP+, 2 spots below 4-6 Penn State. How much more do we really need to see before we get the picture?

Broadly speaking, of course, the point of scheduling Ohio State is to beat Ohio State. Winning big a nonconference game means instant validation and credit in the bank. Losing one should not and does not mean automatic disqualification. When the issues exposed in that loss persist, though, it makes no sense to pretend it never happened, much less extend extra credit just for having shown up to the stadium. Texas can still make things interesting next week by knocking off Texas A&M in Austin, which would at least allow the Longhorns to make the case that they’re a better team at the end of the season than they were at the start. But even then, they still wouldn’t have a good answer for what took them so long.

Prediction: • Texas 38 | Arkansas 26

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-8.5)

The first 10-win season in Vanderbilt history is well within reach with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee. Whether that still represents a viable path to the Playoff … eh. It’s not looking good. Vandy didn’t budge in the CFP rankings, holding at No. 14 following an open date. If the bracket was set today, the Commodores would be the 4th team out, coming in behind BYU, Utah and Miami in the at-large pecking order. Besides the teams immediately in front of them, they’re also looking over their shoulder at a couple of fellow 8-2 outfits in the Big Ten, USC and Michigan, with opportunities to make their move over the next 2 weeks. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the ‘Dores’ chances of making the cut at just 16.4%.

Of course, the bracket is not set today, and as we were reminded last year, certain assumptions at this point on the calendar usually turn out to be built on sand. First things first: Vanderbilt needs to take care of business, and hope that a convincing enough win in Knoxville gives the committee permission to move the ‘Dores ahead of a couple of the 2-loss teams immediately in front of them. Chaos-wise, they’d benefit enormously from 1 upset in particular: Missouri over Oklahoma, which would work in Vandy’s favor by A) likely knocking the Sooners out of the bracket with a 3rd loss; and B) boosting the value of the ‘Dores’ head-to-head win over Mizzou in Week 9. If that winds up as their best win, it would be nice if they could say it came at the expense of an opponent that’s still ranked when the committee is in final deliberations.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 29 | • Kentucky 24

Charlotte at Georgia (-43.5)

If Charlotte isn’t literally The Worst Team in America, it’s only due to the existence of UMass. The 49ers belong in the discussion on their own demerits. They’re 0-9 vs. FBS opponents, losing by an average margin of 23.6 points. They rank 134th out of 136 teams according to SP+ and 135th according to FPI. They’re dead last nationally in total defense, having been on the wrong end of both a 400-yard rushing game and a 600-yard passing game just a few weeks apart. Aside from their lone win, a 42-35 shootout over FCS Monmouth decided in the final 2 minutes, the best thing that has happened to them this season is North Carolina pulling the plug on a behind-the-scenes Hulu series that would have featured the 49ers as victims in Bill Belichick‘s first win as UNC head coach. (“Let the fun begin!”) The silver lining on Saturday: Just for showing up to face the largest point spread in school history, Charlotte is also getting the fattest check in school history.

Prediction: Georgia 48 | • Charlotte 10

Western Kentucky at LSU (-21.5)

Unlike LSU, the Hilltoppers actually have something to look forward to: With a 6-1 record in Conference USA play, they’re still very much in the thick of their conference race despite losing 25-year-old starting QB Maverick McIvor to a mid-season shoulder injury. The Toppers’ fate will be determined next week in a trip to first-place Jacksonville State. As for this week, there’s not much at stake in Baton Rouge beyond springing/avoiding a major upset. Barring developments in LSU’s pursuit of Lane Kiffin, the only real intrigue on the field is at quarterback, where a couple of promising young backups, LSU’s Michael Van Buren and WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr., are auditioning for long-term residencies in their respective roles. Like the 20-something vets they replaced, either or both could be on their way to making a comfortable living on campus before their time is up.

Prediction: LSU 35 | • WKU 17

Coastal Carolina at South Carolina (-24.0)

Well, at least Shane Beamer doesn’t have to answer any more questions about leaving for Virginia Tech. Instead, most of the speculation – or “horse garbage,” if you prefer – as the Gamecocks limp to the finish line surrounds beleaguered QB LaNorris Sellers, whose raw talent promises to make him a hot commodity in the draft or the transfer portal despite his failure to launch as a sophomore. Like Anthony Richardson a couple years ago, the case for going pro isn’t so much that the 20-year-old Sellers is necessarily ready to make the leap as it is that he can’t afford not to. He could still be a first-rounder in 2026 based on his physical tools alone, plus the recognition that he’s been dealt a losing hand in South Carolina’s offense. (Both the o-line coach and offensive coordinator have already been shown the door.) If he was to stay in school and continued to struggle next year as a 21-year-old redshirt junior, he can’t guarantee that would still be the case in 2027. 

Beamer, of course, would love to have Sellers back in what (assuming he survives the next 2 weeks) will surely be a make-or-break season for his tenure. Every decision he makes between now and the end of the year should be in the interest of keeping his franchise QB in the fold and giving him every opportunity to break through in ’26, up to and including seeking Sellers’ input in hiring the next play-caller. From Sellers’ point of view, if he’s even going to consider gambling his future on another year in garnet and black he shouldn’t settle for anything less. 

Prediction: South Carolina 36 | • Coastal Carolina 14

Eastern Illinois at Alabama (n/a)

Notable Eastern Illinois football alumni include a pair of Super Bowl-winning coaches (Mike Shanahan and Sean Payton), a couple of matinee-idol quarterbacks of more recent vintage (Tony Romo and Jimmy Garoppolo), and Burl Ives.

Ives reportedly intended to be a high school football coach before dropping out. Too bad, generations of small-town Illinois kids would have run through walls for that guy.

Prediction: Alabama 51 | Eastern Illinois 7

Samford at Texas A&M (n/a)

After last week’s brain-melting comeback against South Carolina, the Aggies owe the 12th Man a lazy, drama-free afternoon in what they hope is their final home date of the year. (The only way it’s not is if A&M blows its shot at a first-round CFP bye and finds itself hosting a first-round game instead.) Samford, a 1-10 outfit whose only victory came by 2 points at the expense of fellow Southern Conference bottom dweller VMI, is in no position to object.

Prediction: Texas A&M 56 | Samford 3

Mercer at Auburn (n/a)

If you’ve lost track of Auburn’s quarterback situation, I don’t blame you. A quick recap: Jackson Arnold‘s doomed tenure as QB1 officially ended with the end of Hugh Freeze‘s doomed tenure as head coach. The next man up, Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels, looked like a keeper his last time out, when he led the Tigers to a season-high 38 points in a shootout loss at Vanderbilt in Week 11. Under NCAA rules, however, keeping him means sitting him: The trip to Nashville was Daniels’ 3rd appearance of the season, leaving only 1 more before he burns his redshirt and, with it, his final year of eligibility. (He did not redshirt in any of his 3 seasons at Stanford, where he started 20 games.) Wisely, coaches have opted not to waste that appearance on a glorified scrimmage against an FCS patsy. Instead, Daniels will skip this weekend’s game and return to the lineup for the Iron Bowl, thereby preserving another year on campus (and the paycheck that comes with it) in 2026.

That leaves Deuce Knight, gem of the Tigers’ 2025 recruiting class, who’s due for the first meaningful action of his career. His debut will also serve as an audition – if not for the chance to start against Alabama, then to get a leg up on next year’s competition under a new head coach. Whether that competition will involve Daniels or an incoming transfer, or both, will be up to the next administration. For now, all he can do is look the part against the No. 6 team in the latest FCS rankings.

Prediction: Auburn 32 | Mercer 10

Scoreboard

Week 12 record: 6-2 straight-up | 4-3 vs. spread
Season record: 89-19 straight-up | 48-53 vs. spread