Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff in 2024? Breaking down the betting odds
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Clemson had a disastrous 2023 season, but the Tigers are hoping to get back on track in 2024.
After falling to 4-4 midway through the year, Clemson did recover well enough to win its final 5 games and extend its streak of winning at least 9 games to 13 consecutive years. The Tigers return quarterback Cade Klubnik, an up-and-coming receiving corps and a strong defense as they hope to get back to College Football Playoff contention.
The market isn’t necessarily buying Clemson’s ability to do so, however. FanDuel is currently offering the best price for bettors to back Clemson in its CFP pursuit at +205. On the other hand, ESPN BET has Clemson to miss the Playoff priced at -240 as of publication.
With the College Football Playoff set to expand to 12 teams this year, the ACC champion should have a clear path into the Playoff. Let’s break down Clemson’s returning roster and schedule to determine if the Tigers are a good bet to make — or miss — the CFP:
Clemson’s roster and returning production
Klubnik returns for his second full season as Clemson’s starting quarterback. The QB-offensive coordinator tandem of Klubnik and Garrett Riley received plenty of hype last offseason, but the results were dismal. Clemson averaged just 5.25 yards per play, which ranked 12th amongst ACC offenses. Klubnik was inefficient. He averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, which ranked just 93rd nationally among qualified passers.
Clemson will have to hope that Klubnik takes a big step forward in 2024. Significant improvement would make some sense, given Riley’s reputation as a play-caller and Klubnik’s pedigree as a former 5-star prospect.
Clemson’s wide receiver room should be much-improved in 2024 thanks to an offseason of internal development. Antonio Williams, Tyler Brown and Adam Randall have all shown flashes throughout their careers, but the Tigers will need one of them to become a true No. 1 option in 2024. Clemson also has a pair of standout freshman wide receivers who could be impactful: Bryant Wesco and TJ Moore.
Defensively, Clemson lost a lot of playmakers. Nate Wiggins, Ruke Orhorhoro, Xavier Thomas, Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Tyler Davis all were drafted. Andrew Mukuba and Toriano Pride Jr. both transferred. That’s a ton of production that Clemson will have to replace with internal development. Per ESPN’s SP+ returning production metric, Clemson is set to return just 56% of its weighted defensive production (which ranks 88th nationally) in 2024.
Clemson does have elite talent all over its defense. Dabo Swinney has been highly criticized for ignoring the transfer portal, but he and his staff have continued to recruit the high school ranks at an elite level. TJ Parker and Peter Woods are elite defensive linemen. Barrett Carter is back to lead Clemson’s linebacker room and the secondary is set up nicely with Jeadyn Lukus, RJ Mickens and Avieon Terrell leading the way.
Despite the turnover, Clemson’s defense should be among the nation’s best again in 2024. Wes Goodwin has established himself as an elite defensive coordinator since Brent Venables’ departure. Last season, Clemson’s defense was in the 99th percentile in success rate and in the 98th percentile in havoc rate.
Clemson’s schedule
Clemson, like every other team in the division-less ACC, will have a new-look schedule this fall with Stanford, Cal and SMU entering the league. However, the Tigers’ 2024 schedule only includes 1 of those newcomers. Clemson will host Stanford on Sept. 28, but future regular-season matchups against Cal or SMU will have to wait.
Clemson’s schedule is headlined by its Week 1 clash with Georgia in Atlanta. The Tigers also travel to Florida State this year and will also have a tough road game against Virginia Tech on Nov. 9. NC State and Louisville figure to be Clemson’s toughest ACC home games.
Here’s a look at Clemson’s full 2024 schedule:
- Aug. 31: Georgia (neutral-site game in Atlanta)
- Sept. 7: App State
- Sept. 21: NC State
- Sept. 28: Stanford
- Oct. 5: at Florida State
- Oct. 12: at Wake Forest
- Oct. 19: Virginia
- Nov. 2: Louisville
- Nov. 9: at Virginia Tech
- Nov. 16: at Pitt
- Nov. 23: The Citadel
- Nov. 30: South Carolina
Overall, this is a pretty manageable schedule. Clemson’s slate ranks 26th nationally in strength-of-schedule per ESPN’s FPI rankings and 30th according to ESPN’s SP+ ratings.
Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff?
Clemson undoubtedly had some unfortunate turnover luck last season, which was a big reason the Tigers started out 4-4. Perhaps that luck will regress to the mean in 2024 and the Tigers will end up on the right side of some big breaks in high-leverage moments.
But this program has been trending down over the past few years. Swinney’s reluctance to use the transfer portal has been a big part of that, but so have the Tigers’ developmental struggles at quarterback, wide receiver and on the offensive line. Clemson hasn’t been anywhere close to the 4-team Playoff picture in any of the past 3 years (read: since Trevor Lawrence left), and only would have been a 12-team Playoff participant in 2022.
I think the ACC is likely to be a 1-bid league in 2024, and I’m certainly not comfortable enough with Clemson to bet on the Tigers to earn that spot.
At ESPN BET’s line of -240, that appears to be a fair price to fade Clemson’s CFP hopes. That translates to implied odds of 70.59%. FPI gives Clemson a 73.1% chance to miss the Playoff, so there is a bit of value there.
PICK: Clemson to miss the College Football Playoff (-240 on ESPN BET).
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
