The Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills will battle on Thursday Night Football this week in a matchup of divisional foes.
The Bills have dominated this rivalry in recent years. Since the start of the 2020 season — Josh Allen’s first Pro Bowl year — the Bills are 9-1 against the Dolphins with a +143 point differential. Five of those 9 wins have come by 15 or more points.
Dolphins vs. Bills odds, predictions
Here’s a look at the latest betting odds for this game, which show Buffalo as a massive favorite:
Dolphins fact sheet
- Miami has had an interesting start to the season. After months of Tyreek Hill trade speculation, the Dolphins have begun the year with their star receiver on the team. His relationship with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel appears to be strained, to say the least.
- The poor vibes from the offseason carried over in Week 1 when the Dolphins were out-classed by the Indianapolis Colts. That initially looked like a dreadful loss for Miami, although the Colts continued showing their offensive prowess in a win over a stout Denver defense in Week 2.
- As for the Dolphins in Week 2, they were much more competitive against a New England Patriots team that isn’t supposed to make the playoffs. The Dolphins averaged almost 7 yards per play, but a Tagovailoa interception and the inability to get off the field on third down resulted in a Pats win.
- Miami comes into this game ranked 26th in offensive EPA. Miami is dead last — by a wide margin — in that category on defense.
- The defensive numbers are a bigger red flag given that the Dolphins have faced Indianapolis and New England — 2 teams who ranked outside of the top-20 in offensive EPA last season.
- The big problem has been Miami’s pass defense. Against Drake Maye and Daniel Jones, the Dolphins have allowed 9.7 yards per attempt — the third-worst mark in the NFL through 2 weeks.
- The Dolphins are also 1 of 6 NFL teams that doesn’t have a takeaway yet this year. Miami’s -4 turnover differential is tied for worst in the NFL.
- Offensively, there are some reasons to be encouraged. The Dolphins are third in the NFL with a 55% success rate on early downs. As a result, they’ve only had 1 3-and-out so far this year.
- It’s worth noting Miami has a pass play rate of over 72%, which is by far the highest in the NFL. This is likely due to the Dolphins trailing for most of their 2 games so far. Miami has only run 8 plays so far this season when leading or tied (31st in the NFL).
- Miami is likely to be without starting cornerback Storm Duck due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 1.
Bills fact sheet
- After a thrilling win over the Ravens in Week 1, the Bills cruised to an easy 30-10 victory over the Jets in Week 2.
- Bills quarterback is the early NFL MVP favorite at most sports betting apps (the best number comes from BetMGM at +325).
- Buffalo’s offense enters Week 3 ranked No. 1 in the NFL in EPA-per-play and No. 4 in success rate.
- The Bills have run the ball very effectively so far this season. James Cook has a league-leading 3 rushing touchdowns and has posted an extremely-strong 65% success rate through 2 games.
- Buffalo’s receiver corps was a weakness coming into the year but Keon Coleman appears to be breaking out. He’s caught 11 of 14 targets for 138 yards in 2 games.
- The Bills have scored 8 offensive touchdowns so far this season but Allen only has 2 touchdown passes. That’s likely a function of play-calling. The Bills have a 60% rushing rate in the red zone and a 100% rushing rate inside the 5-yard line (the league average is generally around 58%).
- The Bills defense got pushed around a bit by Baltimore in Week 1, but they responded in a big way against the Jets last weekend. After lighting up Pittsburgh the week before, Justin Fields was held to just 3-of-11 passing before he was replaced by Tyrod Taylor.
- The Bills rank 26th in rushing EPA defense, but it’s hard tough to know how much of that is a function of facing an elite Baltimore rushing offense in Week 1. Buffalo held Jets running back Breece Hall to just 29 yards on 10 carries last week, although Fields did get loose for 49 rushing yards.
Dolphins vs. Bills best bets
I see a small edge on Josh Allen’s touchdown passing prop for this game. Dating back to the start of the 2022 season, Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 31 of 51 regular season games (61% hit rate). He’s only done so once this season, but that’s with Buffalo’s unsustainable 100% rushing play rate inside the 5-yard line. I expect the Bills will be in scoring territory a lot in this game vs. the Dolphins, so we should see Allen get some opportunities to find the end zone with his arm against this suspect Miami secondary.
Pick: Josh Allen over 1.5 touchdown passes (-150 on BetMGM)
I also like the over in this game. Miami is certainly capable of putting up points. For the purposes of this prop, I also like that Mike McDaniel’s response to trailing is to just exclusively throw the ball and abandon the running game. Buffalo’s defense is good, but the Ravens showed they’re not perfect. Miami’s offense has probably been a bit unlucky so far this season given their early-down success rates, so maybe we some positive regression there. On the other side, Buffalo’s offense will probably be able to pick its scoring total in this game given what we’ve seen from that unit and the Dolphins defense so far this year. There’s a recent trend to support this, too. During the McDaniel era when Miami is a dog of 5 points or more, the over is 4-0 (3 of those games have come against Buffalo).
Pick: Over 49.5 points (-110 on bet365)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
