The Minnesota Vikings will host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football this week.
Both teams have quarterbacks who were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but played sparingly (or not at all) in their rookie seasons. JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. previously met on an even bigger stage — the National Championship Game at the end of the 2023 season when they played for Michigan and Washington, respectively.
Here’s a look at the latest betting odds for this contest:
Falcons vs. Vikings news
Here’s what you need to know before betting on this game:
Falcons fact sheet
- The Falcons lost a heartbreaker in Week 1. After a missed extra point by Tampa Bay in the final minute gave Atlanta a chance to tie the game, the Falcons missed a kick of their own at the buzzer in a 23-20 loss.
- Atlanta’s secondary was excellent for the vast majority of its Week 1 game against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Mayfield threw for just 167 yards on 32 attempts. He did find the end zone 3 times, but was largely inefficient on a down-to-down basis against a Falcons secondary that started 2 rookies.
- Offensively, Michael Penix Jr. was underwhelming aside from a 50-yard touchdown pass to Bijan Robinson. That play aside, Penix averaged just over 6 yards per attempt. His average depth of target per PFF was 7 yards and he did not register a big-time throw.
- Atlanta was unable to get the run game going in Week 1 despite having Robinson and a solid backup in Tyler Allgeier. They combined for 48 rushing yards on 22 carries.
- Star receiver Drake London suffered an apparent shoulder injury late in the game and was not a factor on Atlanta’s final drive. Coach Raheem Morris told reporters on Wednesday he expects London to play, but nothing has been decided. Atlanta’s No. 2 wideout, Darnell Mooney, is also dealing with a shoulder injury and is questionable for this week’s game. Mooney was inactive in Week 1. Both receivers have been limited in practice this week.
- Elsewhere on the defense, former Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. and ex-Oklahoma safety Billy Bowman are on the injury report as well.
Vikings fact sheet
- JJ McCarthy led Minnesota to a dramatic comeback win on Monday Night Football in Week 1. After a slow start that included a pick-6, McCarthy out-played Caleb Williams in the second half. He finished with 143 passing yards and 2 touchdowns plus 25 rushing yards and another score on the ground.
- McCarthy graded out very well on intermediate and deep throws per PFF, suggesting Minnesota would be wise to open things up a bit more in Week 2. With only 20 pass attempts in Week 1, McCarthy ranked 31st out of 32 starting QBs in that category.
- It was a quiet season debut for Justin Jefferson, who caught just 4 passes for 44 yards. He averaged just 1.76 yards per route run, which is well below his career average.
- Despite a strong fourth quarter, Minnesota’s offense floundered repeatedly. The Vikings led all NFL teams with 7 three-and-outs in Week 1 (only 2 other teams had more than 4).
- Defensively, Minnesota was No. 6 in the NFL in success rate last week. That level of consistency allowed the Vikings to get back into the game and take control vs. Chicago in Week 1.
- The Vikings have a relatively full injury report this week. Key players such as center Ryan Kelly, safety Jeff Okudah and edge Andrew Van Ginkel have all been banged up this week.
Falcons vs. Vikings predictions
I like the under in this game. Both of these defenses are excellent. We knew that about Minnesota, but Atlanta’s defense was also really good last week against Baker Mayfield. There were a few missed opportunities with regards to some missed interceptions, too. Minnesota’s offense had too many dead drives for me to believe in that unit, despite how good JJ McCarthy looked in the fourth quarter. In a game where two quarterbacks have such little experiences going up against potential top-10 defenses, this total seems too high. Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace, too, after Week 1.
Pick: Under 44.5 points (-105 on ESPN Bet)
Bijan Robinson is an interesting case study this week. He had just 12 carries in Week 1 and only earned about 43% of Atlanta’s rushing attempts against Tampa Bay. It was the first time his share of rush attempts has dipped below 55% in a game since … the last time Atlanta played the Bucs in 2024. Maybe there’s something about that matchup where Atlanta likes Tyler Allgeier more than Robinson — although neither was particularly effective on Sunday, at least partially due to blocking issues. Week 1 against the Bucs snapped a streak of 6 straight games of Robinson carrying the ball at least 17 times. In 6 of those games, he went over 20 carries. I think we’ll see a return to that level of usage for Robinson this week.
Pick: Bijan Robinson over 15.5 rushing attempts (-116 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
