The Denver Broncos will host the Las Vegas Raiders in an AFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football this week.
Denver currently leads the division and could make a run at beating out the Chiefs to win their first AFC West title since 2015. The Raiders are in their first season under head coach Pete Carroll and will bring a 2-game losing streak into this matchup.
Raiders vs. Broncos odds
Here’s what the up-to-the-minute betting odds look like for this contest:
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Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
Raiders news and notes
- The Raiders are 2-6 this season but are coming off of a competitive overtime loss to the Jaguars in Week 9. Vegas had one of its better offensive games of the season as it averaged 5.5 yards per play and Geno Smith threw 4 touchdown passes.
- Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has been a bit of a disappointment this season. The first-round pick is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and has just 3 rushing touchdowns in 8 games.
- However, a lot of Jeanty’s efficiency issues could be explained by a poor offensive line. Jeanty is tied for 8th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt after contact, per PFF.
- The Raiders’ passing game will be a bit of a mystery moving forward. Jakobi Meyers leads the team in targets with 49, but he was traded to the Jaguars this week.
- Brock Bowers will likely have an even bigger role moving forward. Bowers is arguably the NFL’s best tight end and has 40 targets in just 5 games this season. He’s also coming off of the best game of his young career — 12 catches for 127 yards and 3 touchdowns.
- Tre Tucker is a name that could see more attention from Smith in the passing game. Rookies like Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr. could also see more action, but Tucker leads the team in yards per route run (1.65) by a decent margin, per PFF.
- The Raiders’ defense ranks 23rd in EPA-per-play allowed this season. Vegas is strongest against the run — 16th in rush defense EPA and 19th in rush defense success rate.
Broncos news
- The Broncos are one of the NFL’s biggest surprises this season. They currently lead the AFC West with a 7-2 record and are coming off of a win in Houston last weekend.
- Bo Nix is putting up very similar efficiency stats to what he did last season as a rookie. He has a TD% of 5.3%, an INT% of 1.9%, is averaging a little over 6 yards per attempt and has posted a 43% passing success rate. Those numbers are all very close to what they were a year ago.
- Two areas where Nix has improved greatly: He now leads the league in sack rate at just 2.72%. Nix also leads all NFL quarterbacks in game-winning drives with 4 already this season (he had 3 all of last year).
- Although RJ Harvey received some preseason hype, it’s been veteran JK Dobbins who gets the vast majority of the snaps and rushing usage in Denver’s backfield.
- Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton both have 60+ targets so far this season, although Sutton has been much more efficient when he catches the ball. Sutton averages 9.1 yards per target while Franklin is at 6.
- Franklin has 12 red-zone targets this season, which is by far the most on the team. Sutton is second with 5. However, Franklin has just 3 red-zone touchdowns this season (and Sutton has zero).
- Denver’s defense is elite. The Broncos rank 4th in EPA-per-play allowed this season.
- Denver runs a very aggressive defensive system that results in lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Broncos are No. 2 in the NFL with a 28.8% pressure rate this season.
- However, a key cog in the Broncos’ defense may not play on Thursday night. Cornerback Pat Surtain II, who won Defensive Player of the Year last season, missed last week’s game against Houston with an injury, hasn’t practiced this week.
Raiders vs. Broncos picks
I think Geno goes under this number. He had 39 last week, but that was an overtime game that had an unusual amount of scoring in the 4th quarter (31 points between the 2 teams). Before last week, he had gone under this total in 4 of his previous 5 games. Smith is also one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL against pressure. Among 34 quarterbacks with 50 drop backs this season, Smith ranks 30th in PFF’s passer grade. Against pressure, Smith is 35-of-70 for 400 yards Given Denver’s high-pressure defensive profile, I think the Raiders will have a more run-heavy game plan installed for this matchup.
Pick: Geno Smith under 31.5 pass attempts (-105 on Fanatics)
I think there’s value on Troy Franklin to find the end zone. As I wrote above, Franklin dominates Denver’s red-zone targets (he has 7 more than the next-closest Bronco through Week 9). And yet, Franklin’s anytime TD price is well behind Courtland Sutton’s (+145) and nearly equal to RJ Harvey’s (+200). At 6-3, Franklin has the size to be an excellent red zone threat and I think he will find the end zone again on Thursday night against a bad Vegas secondary.
Pick: Troy Franklin anytime TD (+190 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
