The San Francisco 49ers are set to take on the Los Angeles Rams this week in an NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.
Here’s a look at the up-to-date betting odds for this game:
49ers vs. Rams odds
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
49ers fact sheet
- The 49ers are 3-1 this season, but all 4 games have been played within a margin of 5 points or less. That includes a 5-point win over the Saints and a 1-point win over the Cardinals.
- Injuries are a massive problem for the 49ers this week. Brock Purdy has been ruled out despite returning to the starting lineup last week in a loss to the Jaguars. Mac Jones will start at QB on Thursday night.
- Despite playing with backup quarterback Mac Jones for much of the first 4 weeks, the 49ers’ passing offense is in the top half of the league in EPA-per-drop-back. Perhaps more impressively, the 49ers lead the NFL with a 55.2% drop-back success rate.Â
- However, San Francisco’s rushing offense has not been good. The 49ers rank 24th in rushing success rate so far this season. Star running back Christian McCaffrey is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, which would be the lowest mark of his career.
- However, McCaffrey is extremely involved in SF’s passing game. He’s amassed almost 11 targets per game through the first 4 contests, catching 31 passes for 305 yards. Assuming McCaffrey plays all 17 games, he’s on pace to smash the NFL record (previously set by a guy named Christian McCaffrey) for receptions in a season by a running back.Â
- Ricky Pearsall is San Francisco’s top target in the passing game aside from McCaffrey. He has 29 targets in 4 games. Seventeen of his 20 receptions have gone for first downs. However, he has also been ruled out due to injury, as has fellow receiver Jauan Jennings.
- Defensively, the 49ers are middle-of-the-pack against the run and the pass. Edge rusher Nick Bosa has been ruled out for the season, which certainly hurts from a pass-rushing standpoint.Â
- San Francisco has just a 12.5% pressure rate this season, which ranks 31st ahead of only Carolina.
Rams fact sheet
- The Rams aren’t elite on offense, but they’ve consistently produced at a top-10 level to start the year.
- Matthew Stafford has graded out as the highest-graded starting quarterback on PFF through the first 4 weeks of the season. He’s been credited with 12 big-time throws already, tied with Dak Prescott for the league lead.
- Stafford has really excelled at throwing the deep ball this year. Per PFF, he’s 11-of-18 for 384 yards on throws that are 20+ yards downfield.
- Puka Nacua has become an MVP candidate through the first 4 games. He leads the NFL with 52 receptions for 503 yards already this season. He’s caught at least 8 passes in all 4 games to start the year.
- Davante Adams is averaging almost 9 targets per game but has a catch rate under 50%, so his production hasn’t been up to his standard to start the year. However, he does have a touchdown in 3-straight games entering this week.Â
- Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have both been efficient as runners. The Rams run the ball 42.5% of the time, which is just slightly below league-average.
- Defensively, the Rams are top 5 in the NFL in EPA-per-play allowed. They’re also seventh in defensive success rate.
- The Rams have a 23.7% defensive pressure rate this year, which ranks 8th in the NFL. Edge rushers Jared Verse and Byron Young have combined for 34 pressures, 7 sacks and 20 quarterback hurries through 4 games.
49ers vs. Rams predictions
Given San Francisco’s issues at receiver this week, I’m not sure why the betting markets have McCaffrey priced for his worst receiving game of the season. Mac Jones has thrown 80 passes so far this year. A staggering 22 of them have gone to McCaffrey. I would expect this matchup against the Rams — given their talented edge rushers — to lead to more check-downs for Jones. Particularly since San Francisco will be extremely short-handed in the passing game with Pearsall and Jennings sidelined.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey over 6.5 receptions (+120 on BetMGM)
Davante Adams is an interesting figure in this game. On one hand, his catch rate is a career-low to this point in the season. On the other hand, Puka Nacua’s emergence as an elite option should mean Adams continues to receive less attention from opposing defenses. And despite a low catch rate, Adams is still generating plenty of targets and is averaging almost 16 yards per reception. Lastly, as mentioned above, Stafford has arguably been the NFL’s top deep passer so far this season. San Francisco is 29th in blitz rate and 31st in pressure rate, so I think Stafford will have time to pick out Adams down the field in this game.
Pick: Davante Adams longest reception over 20.5 yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
