Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Oklahoma. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia| Kentucky| LSU| Mizzou| Mississippi State| Ole Miss

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To quote late Oklahoma fan Toby Keith, “how do you like me now?”

That should be plastered all over the facility in Norman. It’s a mindset that should be embraced as it enters the SEC. And hey, maybe it’s a mindset that shows the Sooners’ ex, Lincoln Riley, that they’re doing just fine without him.

Whether it’s Riley, the SEC or just the college football world, Oklahoma will enter 2024 with a chance to prove some folks wrong and build on a good, not great Year 2 of the Brent Venables era. A 4-win improvement and a 10-win season is nothing to scoff at, but obviously, that can’t be the peak.

So what is the peak? How will Oklahoma get there in the SEC? Or will a challenging schedule — one that appears to be far more difficult than Texas’ Year 1 SEC slate — produce too many flashbacks of the 2017-19 Playoff games vs. SEC teams?

Let’s dig into it with Oklahoma’s 2024 Crystal Ball:

It’s a new-look offense, but one rightfully loaded with optimism

If you asked the casual college football fan, they’d probably tell you that an Oklahoma offense that lost Dillon Gabriel to the transfer portal and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to the Mississippi State job is destined for regression. Add in a new-look offensive line and yeah, the external vibe isn’t loaded with optimism for Oklahoma’s Year 1 SEC offense.

But internally? I get the sense that’s a much different story. Jackson Arnold might not have been as decorated as Arch Manning or Nico Iamaleava, but he was also a top-10 prospect in that 2023 class for a reason. It was telling that Venables brought Arnold to SEC Media Days after he got his first career start in the bowl game loss to Arizona.

Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!

Arnold is working with a new coordinator, but not necessarily someone new to the building. Seth Littrell could be Oklahoma’s version of Mike Bobo. That is, someone who returned to their alma mater as an analyst after getting fired from their job as a Group of 5 coach … who then got promoted to OC a year later. Bobo led Georgia to a top-5 offense in 2023. Oklahoma avoiding regression would mean producing a top-5 offense after last year’s unit finished No. 4 in scoring.

Of course, a big part of last year’s prolific offense was the OU pass-catchers. Gone is Drake Stoops, but Oklahoma returns just about everyone else. Nic Anderson is back after a breakout redshirt freshman season in which he was the only Power 5 receiver to average 20 yards/catch while securing 10 receiving touchdowns. Andrel Anthony was the team’s leading receiver when he went down in the middle of last season (429 yards) and Jalil Farooq is back after he had 45 catches for 694 yards.

But the most promising player of the bunch might be Purdue transfer Deion Burks, who will step into Stoops’ role as the primary slot receiver. It’s Burks who already has NFL eyes on him after a breakout season amid a frustrating quarterback situation at Purdue. The physical abilities aren’t lacking — Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List had him as the No. 50 Freak with a 540-pound squat and a 400-pound bench press — but how he gels with in a group with a lot of mouths to feed will be worth monitoring.

In short, there are plenty of weapons for Arnold to work with … as long as he can find some protection on the offensive line.

Will a Year 3 Brent Venables defense be reminiscent of his 2010s Clemson defenses?

It’s wild to think that from 2013-21, Venables’ Clemson units never ranked worse than No. 24 in scoring defense. In 5 of those 9 seasons, the Tigers had a top-3 defense in the sport. Sooner or later, one would think that defensive acumen will be the backbone of Oklahoma. Maybe that time is now.

Venables returns a pair of preseason All-Americans in tackling machine Danny Stutsman and ball-hawking safety Billy Bowman, both of whom could’ve left for the NFL but stayed in Norman for another season. They’re the leaders of a defense that was better in 2023, but still not 2010s Clemson good.

Just like on offense, the question will be on the defensive line. Oklahoma made one of the splashiest post-spring portal additions possible by landing TCU defensive tackle Damonic Williams to help a run defense that ranked No. 48 in FBS. That has to improve, especially against that schedule. In SEC play, 6 of Oklahoma’s 8 opponents won at least 9 games last season. That doesn’t even include a trip to Auburn, where the Sooners’ first SEC road trip will be against preseason first-team All-SEC selection Jarquez Hunter.

Venables’ Clemson units became known for how dominant they were on the defensive line. There’s no way that Oklahoma can navigate this Year 1 SEC schedule unless it takes a significant step forward up front.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Temple (W)

A standalone spotlight for Arnold and Co. yields fireworks from the jump. Running back Gavin Sawchuk picks up right where he left off at the end of last year to fuel a Friday night win.

Week 2: vs. Houston (W)

It’s hard to imagine a new-look Houston squad rolling into Norman with much juice, especially when that scenario would be predicated on Houston OC Kevin Barbay dialing up the right looks against Venables’ defense. Bowman gets yet another pick-6 to put an exclamation point on a blowout win.

Week 3: vs. Tulane (W)

A week after torching Willie Fritz’s new program, Oklahoma makes it a long afternoon for his old program. A Tulane offense that’s still in search of an offensive identity can’t muster scoring drives on the road. Tight end Bauer Sharp has his first big day in an Oklahoma uniform and the Sooners avoid a trap game before the Josh Heupel reunion.

Week 4: vs. Tennessee (W)

The Heupel reunion will bring College GameDay to Norman (with fans) for the first time since 2012. I wouldn’t expect any sort of drama outside of the obvious. That is, the national championship-winning quarterback/fired OC is returning to his alma mater for the first time as a head coach. That won’t matter after kickoff. What will matter is the confusion that Venables draws up for Iamaleava in his first road start. After Tennessee jumps out to an early lead, Heupel’s offense leaves too many points on the board. Turnovers and failed 4th-down attempts flip momentum Oklahoma’s way. When Arnold can avoid James Pearce Jr., Tennessee’s secondary gets exposed. The Sooners make a statement in their SEC debut.

Week 5: at Auburn (W)

This feels like such a pivotal game for programs that are determined to be part of the 12-team Playoff discussion. It wouldn’t be surprising if Hunter and Sawchuk got rolling in the ground game and this turned into a matchup in which both teams struggled to get off blocks. So what tips the scales toward Oklahoma? Arnold’s legs. His ability to extend plays and keep drives alive deflates the raucous Jordan-Hare crowd. Oklahoma’s first SEC road win sends a loud message to the rest of the conference.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: vs. Texas in Dallas (L)

Year to year during the 2020s, this matchup has felt entirely different. I expect the pendulum will swing back in Texas’ favor after turnovers proved costly last year in Dallas. Texas’ secondary bounces back and flips the script. This time, it’s Oklahoma who can’t avoid costly turnovers. Down 4 late, Arnold forces a throw to 2023 hero Anderson in the red zone that Jahdae Barron picks off. His second interception of the day allows Texas to pick up a pair of first downs to run out of the final 3 minutes. For the second consecutive year, a battle of unbeatens in the Red River Rivalry lives up to the billing and then some.

Week 8: vs. South Carolina (W)

It might not get the Heupel-Oklahoma billing, but Shane Beamer’s return to Norman will be a significant storyline. For Oklahoma, it’s a bounce-back matchup after the Texas loss. It’s an opportunity for Venables’ defense to frustrate a young, developing quarterback. Woodi Washington and Bowman both pick off LaNorris Sellers passes in what turns into an early blowout. The Gamecocks fail to find any sort of offensive rhythm in a 35-10 Oklahoma victory.

Week 9: at Ole Miss (L)

In one of the sneakier big-time matchups of the season, it’s an emotional roller coaster from start to finish. Jaxson Dart shakes off a couple of missed opportunities early and leads Ole Miss back from a 2-score deficit. But after taking the lead for good early in the 4th quarter, Dart opts to try and run through Stutsman instead of getting out of bounds. That proves costly. Ole Miss gets a late stop to preserve the thrilling win, but attention shifts to the ailing Dart ahead of a pivotal stretch while Oklahoma suffers a loss that’ll prove costly come Playoff time.

Week 10: vs. Maine (W)

I fully expect to say multiple times during this game, “ya know, I’ve always liked Casey Thompson.”

Week 11: at Mizzou (W)

In the Theo Wease Bowl, Oklahoma shows that it has plenty of pass-catchers who can play at the SEC level. That turns into another frustrating day at the office for Mizzou’s secondary, which looks overmatched for the third time in as many games. Anderson makes a pair of jump-ball grabs downfield that deflate the home crowd. Brady Cook tries to put on his cape, but he ends up suffering a leg injury while trying to extend a play. He shows grit by staying in, but ultimately, Oklahoma dials up too much pressure for him to mount a comeback. The Sooners hand Mizzou a devastating home loss.

Week 12: Bye

Week 13: vs. Alabama (W)

A game with massive Playoff implications goes to the home Sooners in thrilling fashion. Why? Oklahoma’s wideouts feast on Alabama’s inconsistent secondary. It’s not quite 2020 Alabama-Ole Miss levels of shootout, but let’s just say that points aren’t lacking in Norman. Jalen Milroe and Arnold deliver one of the games of the year. Anderson proves to be too much for the Alabama defense, which finally can’t get that late stop.

Week 14: at LSU (L)

Will it be a Playoff elimination game? It’s certainly possible. It’s also possible that Oklahoma’s Year 1 regular season in the SEC will conclude with a statement win in Death Valley. But more likely is that finally, we see LSU’s defensive line show up in a big game. Bo Davis’ work building up that defensive front pays off. Instead of OU’s pass-catchers torching an inconsistent LSU secondary, the Tigers get pressure without blitzing on Arnold and he’s unable to settle in. That leaves the door open for the LSU rushing attack to do the heavy lifting while Garrett Nussmeier assumes the role of game manager. LSU wins a pivotal thriller to make 1 last Playoff argument.

2024 Projection: 9-3 (5-3), 6th in SEC

12-team Playoff berth? No

We started this with a country lyric, so let’s close with another one.

“Ain’t no love in Oklahoma.”

A 9-win regular season against that schedule would firmly put the Sooners in the 12-team Playoff discussion. But the loss to LSU is too much to overcome and the Sooners finish the regular season barely on the outside looking in at the Playoff picture.

Still, though. A season full of defying expectations changes the narrative surrounding the Sooners. Not only did they show that they were “SEC-ready,” but they also showed they could be national-championship ready in 2025. It’s the type of debut in a new conference that isn’t necessarily like 2012 Texas A&M with Johnny Manziel, but it appears to be a “how do you like me now” vibe in what many assume will be a “floor” season in Norman.

Venables will be rewarded with another raise, which puts him into the ever-growing $9 million club in the SEC. That’s how impressed AD Joe Castiglione is with Venables. Quietly, the college football world realizes that Venables is building it differently than Riley did.

How do you like me now, indeed.