The Ole Miss Rebels are just under a week away from kicking off the 2024 season against the Furman Paladins on Saturday, August 31.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has updated its projections for every game on the Rebels’ schedule in 2024. The Rebels will play 8 SEC games in 2024, and none of the 4 non-conference games are especially tough. FPI gives the Rebels a 76.6% or better chance in each of their non-conference games.
Here’s a look at FPI’s win probabilities for Ole Miss in all 12 games:
- Aug. 31: vs. Furman — 97.2%
- Sept. 7: vs Middle Tennessee — 93.2%
- Sept. 14: at Wake Forest — 76.6%
- Sept. 21: vs. Georgia Southern — 91.4%
- Sept. 28: vs. Kentucky — 70.6%
- Oct. 5: at South Carolina — 56.8%
- Oct. 12: vs. at LSU — 37.5%
- Oct. 26: vs. Oklahoma — 46.2%
- Nov. 2: at Arkansas — 64.8%
- Nov. 9: vs. Georgia — 21.1%
- Nov. 23: at Florida — 52.5%
- Nov. 29: vs. Mississippi State — 77.1%
According to FPI, the Rebels should be favored in 9 of their games. Games at LSU, against Oklahoma, and against Georgia figure to be the Rebels’ toughest tests according to FPI. The Rebels are projected to win 7.85 games per these projections, which is a much lower mark than oddsmakers in Vegas give the team.
The latest odds at DraftKings have the Rebels’ win total at 9.5, meaning FPI expects the Rebels to win almost 2 fewer games than the oddsmakers do. After finishing the 2023 season with an 11-2 record, many in Oxford would see a 7-win season as a huge disappointment.
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The Rebels’ bid to make the expanded College Football Playoff begins on Saturday, August 31. For the opener, FPI gives the Rebels a 97.2% chance to win.
Bryce Lazenby covers college football for Saturday Down South. A Nashville native, his previous stops include FanSided, Dimers, and The Leaf-Chronicle.
