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Week 12 of the college football slate is in the rearview mirror.
As always in this story, the goal here is to break down some advanced stats and other insights that should provide value for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week, this story covered Penn State’s prowess, South Carolina’s offensive ceiling and more.
Here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 12:
Buying: Ole Miss is the best team in the SEC.
With each passing week, it becomes more apparent that Ole Miss is the SEC’s best team. Texas is currently atop the league standings, but the Longhorns have been inconsistent all season — and looked terrible against Arkansas on Saturday. Texas A&M is up there, too, but the Aggies’ QB situation leaves a lot to be desired. Alabama and Georgia both have significant weaknesses, although the Dawgs have largely matched Ole Miss’ ceiling in a couple of big games this season.
As for Ole Miss, Jaxson Dart is playing great in recent weeks and the Rebels’ defense is second to none in the SEC. Ole Miss ranks in the top 15 nationally in pass defense EPA and rush defense EPA, per Game on Paper. The Rebels also have the No. 2 passing offense by the same metric. There’s a lot to like about this profile despite their 2 early losses.
Last week in this piece, I bought in to Ole Miss winning the national championship at +1000. Due to tiebreaker constraints, it’s extremely unlikely Ole Miss will reach the SEC title game. But that might end up being a blessing in disguise if Ole Miss gets to host a first-round game in Oxford.
Selling: Ohio State’s defense can keep Indiana off the field
Ohio State ultimately came away with a stress-free 31-7 win over Northwestern this past weekend, but that score line might be a bit deceiving.
The Wildcats moved the ball pretty methodically throughout this game. They only found the end zone once, but they had 4 drives that resulted in 10+ plays. Three of those drives took at least 5:30 off the clock. Given that Ohio State faces a much more formidable offense in Indiana this weekend, it could be an issue that the Buckeyes were not able to get off the field against Northwestern.
I think Indiana will probably try to sustain drives and churn clock early on, but this offense has a little bit more bite to it than Northwestern’s has. The Hoosiers should have more success in the red zone. If Indiana gets down early, I don’t think Curt Cignetti will pack it in offensively and run the clock down. It’s much more likely he’ll get aggressive in an effort to make up any sort of deficit. That would lead to more points — for either the Buckeyes or the Hoosiers. I like the over in this spot.
Actionable bet to consider: Over 52 points (-110 via bet365)
Buying: SMU has been playing with fire
SMU has had an interesting year. The Mustangs had a rough September but managed to skate through with a loss to BYU as their only blemish. They were as dominant as anyone in October, but November has brought back some concerning trends from the start of the season.
Most recently, SMU beat Boston College 38-28 in Week 12, but that game was much closer than it appeared. Kevin Jennings threw a touchdown pass with 5 seconds left to make it a 2-score game. The advanced metrics are even more concerning, particularly on defense. SMU allowed Boston College to have a success rate in the 93rd percentile, per Game on Paper. The Eagles also posted an above-average explosive play rate and a very strong EPA-per-rush number.
SMU has the résumé to be considered in the at-large discussion, although they’re likely to need an ACC Championship in order to qualify for the Playoff. However, SMU’s recent of the stretch of games reminds me of Miami earlier this season before losing to Georgia Tech, in some ways. SMU closes out the regular season with Virginia and Cal, so it might not matter in the end. But given the way the Mustangs have been trending, I like Virginia to at least put up some points in this game.
Actionable bet to consider:Â Virginia over 23.5 points (-130 on FanDuel)
Selling: Clemson deserves Playoff consideration
Clemson barely survived a matchup with Pittsburgh on Saturday, 24-20, thanks to same late-game heroics from Cade Klubnik. After the game, Dabo Swinney made a point to say that the Tigers remain “in the fight” for a College Football Playoff berth.
While true that Clemson is technically still alive in the ACC race, the Tigers don’t deserve anything more than a bowl appearance. The Tigers were averaging about 1 yard per play in the second half until Klubnik’s 50-yard touchdown run in the final minute on Saturday. This is an offense that has been broken against every decent team it has faced all season. Clemson has averaged under 5 yards per play in 3 straight games — and not 1 of those opponents is ranked in the Top 25 this week.
The defense isn’t special, either. The Tigers rank 93rd nationally in EPA per rush allowed, according to Game on Paper.
Clemson’s work in the ACC is finished, but it needs Miami to lose to Wake Forest or Syracuse in order to reach the ACC title game. As for the at-large discussion, Clemson has proven with lackluster performances vs. Georgia, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Pitt that it doesn’t warrant consideration.
Buying: Drew Allar and Penn State are being overlooked
Penn State crushed Purdue 49-10 on Saturday. That’s Penn State’s 5th conference win by at least double digits. That’s only 1 fewer such win than Oregon and it’s more than Ohio State has. It feels like the Nittany Lions are being overlooked because of some fatigue that has developed over the years due to not being able to beat the Buckeyes.
The Nittany Lions have no obvious weaknesses in their statistical profile on either side of the ball. Perhaps you still have questions about Drew Allar in big games, but he’s undoubtedly made strides this season. He’s increased his yards-per-attempt average all the way to 9.8, up from 6.8 in 2023.
Penn State doesn’t have much of a realistic path to the Big Ten title game, but the Nittany Lions should get to host a CFP game, and I’d expect them to be favored to advance in most matchups.
In Week 13, Penn State goes on the road to face Minnesota. I don’t think the Gophers have the offense to keep up.
Actionable bet to consider: Penn State -11.5 (via bet365)
Selling: Notre Dame will crush Army the way it crushed Navy
Notre Dame is gearing up for its second game vs. a service academy this season. The Fighting Irish squashed Navy 51-14 back on Oct. 26.
I think this game will be different, though. Readers may remember we called out Navy as overrated ahead of that game against Notre Dame due to some turnover luck the prior week against Charlotte.
I don’t feel the same way about Army going into this matchup. The Black Knights have largely remained just as dominant as they were earlier this season, aside from a hiccup against Air Force when they didn’t have starting quarterback Bryson Daily available. Even in a 14-3 win over North Texas in its last game, Army posted a success rate of 50%.
Daily will have had 2 full weeks to recover from his undisclosed injury since that game against the Mean Green. Notre Dame, meanwhile, hasn’t faced a formidable opponent since it beat Louisville at home back in late September. Notre Dame’s biggest strength is on defense against the pass, which won’t come into play much against Army.
Actionable bet to consider: Army +14.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Buying: Arizona State can get to the Big 12 title game
Arizona State is suddenly 8-2 and, in most scenarios, would likely make it to the Big 12 title game if it beats BYU this weekend.
I like the Sun Devils’ chances to do so. Arizona State’s biggest strength is its running game. Cameron Skattebo is an excellent running back and quarterback Sam Leavitt is mobile as well. Arizona State ranks 17th in rushing success rate and 20th in rushing EPA, according to Game on Paper. BYU, meanwhile, has really struggled to stop the run this season. They rank outside the top 80 in those categories on defense.
Arizona State’s big weakness is defending the pass (which could be a major problem in a hypothetical matchup against Colorado). But BYU doesn’t really throw the ball much (79th in passes per game) and when it does, it’s not been overly effective this season (83rd in passing success rate).
This strikes me as a very good matchup for Arizona State, particularly at home. I’m not comfortable taking any Big 12 futures on the Sun Devils, but I do like them this weekend against BYU.
Actionable bet to consider: Arizona State -3.5 (-110 via ESPN BET)
Buying: USC’s QB switch worked
Lincoln Riley made a bold move to bench Miller Moss in favor of Jayden Maiava this week. Despite a disastrous start (Maiava threw a pick-6 on the first series), it worked.
USC closed out a 28-20 win over Nebraska with offensive marks in the 95th percentile for success rate and 87th percentile in EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. USC also averaged over 6 yards per play for just the third time during Big Ten play.
Maiava will need to cut down on the bad throws. He had 3 turnover-worthy plays against the Huskers, per Pro Football Focus, even though only 1 was ultimately picked off. But Maiava had a solid ADOT figure (8.1) in this game and settled in nicely after the early interception. I think Maiava gives USC more upside for the rest of the season, which is what the Trojans are looking for as they close out the year with rivalry games against UCLA and Notre Dame.
Actionable bet to consider: USC -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Buying: Florida has a future worth getting excited about
Florida crushed LSU 27-16 in the Swamp on Saturday to get to a crucial 5th win. Even as DJ Lagway played through a hamstring injury, Florida averaged a whopping 7.9 yards per play and had an explosive play rate of about 12%, per Game on Paper.
Lagway now has an average depth of target of 12.4 yards this season, according to PFF. That’s absurd. It ranks 2nd amongst Power-4 quarterbacks with at least 125 drop-backs this season. Kansas’ Jalon Daniels, who is in his 5th season of college football, is the only player with a better ADOT. That Lagway has accomplished this as a true freshman with a relatively low turnover-worthy play rate (3.5%) says a lot about his potential.
I wouldn’t blame Florida fans for outright rejecting the idea of celebrating a postseason appearance (provided it can beat Florida State in Week 14). But this is a Florida team that has been very formidable since the end of September. Florida, even at 5-5, ranks 31st nationally in ESPN’s SP+ ratings. That’s even with the Gators having to play most of the past couple weeks with a third-string quarterback.
There’s no guarantee that Florida will be able to parlay a potential bowl appearance into future success under Billy Napier. But with a young core that fights this hard for a coach that was as good as fired in September and a significantly softer schedule in 2025, the Gators have a lot to look forward to.
Buying: Tulane is the best Group-of-5 team
The race for the Group-of-5 Playoff berth is heating up, although Boise State is a clear favorite with just a couple of weeks to go before conference championships. In the latest CFP rankings, the Broncos ranked 13th while Army (24) and Tulane (25) also cracked the Top 25.
Tulane dropped games to Oklahoma and Kansas State early in the season. Those losses haven’t aged particularly well, especially the one in Norman. You’d think a Playoff-worthy team would be able to beat this version of Oklahoma, which is nearing its first missed bowl game since 1998.
While there’s not really a résumé-based case to make for Tulane, I do think the Green Wave are probably the best Group-of-5 team this year. They rank 5th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA, per Game on Paper. There are no obvious weaknesses in their profile and quarterback Darian Mensah is probably the best quarterback most fans have never heard of.
If Boise State wins out, it seems clear that it will be in the Playoff. But if the Broncos were to stumble, Tulane is right there to potentially make the leap into the College Football Playoff bracket.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
